Quarterbacks hate getting sacked, and even the best ones get rattled when they hear the same play-call that got them sacked many times in the past. They get a bit cautious when the play is sent to the huddle, and start hearing some footsteps as memories of crunching hits start to play some mind games. It seems like this year every time we are ready to break to the downside or upside of the larger range, those looking for that extra trade or follow through move have had to deal with a quick reversal, leaving some trading accounts out for the count. So here we are again, hovering right in front of a major resistance being teased by a market that has now held the 200-day for three days luring in some traders to say to themselves, “will this time be different?” Sometimes I might forget where I put my keys, or to drop off the dry cleaning, but I can remember trading situations and technical patterns dating back over 10 years ago as if they were happening now!
With that said, I remember like it was yesterday coming in Monday about a month ago with around ten positions as the market seemed poised to bust through 1128-1132 with the Fed meeting on the horizon that week. On Fed day, the market gapped down and stocks didn’t feel right, but gave you a bit of a way out. Then, the day after on August 11th the ascending channel broke to the downside. You had to act fast, take some losses, and get out of the way. That break led to a move down to 1040! This is how it’s been 9 times already this year.
In the last two weeks we’ve had very healthy action. Some of our “go-to” stocks broke out and had follow through! Gold had a great breakout for us and continues higher, and we’ve had one off trades in big cap tech as well as some one to three day spurts in the banks. So as market participants, there have been things to do despite light volume.
Today I am only in tier one SPY as well as long six positions. We are overbought but market won’t pull in. Today’s economic numbers should be interesting especially since the last time, nine states estimated their jobless claims. This morning, I’m bracing for some quick feet action.
Right place, right time has been the mantra of the year. It remains the same as we move forward. This time does feel a bit different, but I will say that my gut is not sure what will happen the next two days. However, if we hold 1085-1095 over the next two weeks, I believe we can see a move to 1160-1180 by year end.
Lastly, today my best friend Steven M. Perez would have turned 37. He passed away from Leukemia before the age of 30. My Grandma used to say, “if a check can solve your problems, your problems aren’t so bad”. So as a last note, enjoy life and don’t worry about the small stuff.
