Thursday, August 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
In overnight activity, reports said around 525 people have died the past two days in anti-government violence in Egypt. Government troops have reportedly shot citizens protesting in the streets. This news has helped to support crude oil prices and the safe-haven gold market. Egypt controls the Suez Canal, through which a good percentage of the world’s oil traffic and other commerce flow. Asian and European stocks were mixed Thursday in uneventful trading amid a lack of market-moving economic data in those regions. There is a big batch of U.S. economic data due for release Thursday that could move the markets, highlighted by the consumer price index. Other U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, real earnings, the Empire State manufacturing survey, Treasury international capital data, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, and the Philadelphia Fed business survey. Also, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard speaks at a breakfast meeting Thursday morning. Traders and investors will be awaiting reports of his comments.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today and hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,681.40 and then at Wednesday’s high of 1,692.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,670.00 and then at 1,660.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower early today on profit taking. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,114.75 and then at 3,125.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,094.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
Dow futures: Prices are lower early today and hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 15,285 and then at 15,300. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 15,200 and then at 15,150. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today and hovering not far above the recent contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132 28/32 and then at 133 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 132 even and then at the contract low of 131 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.28.0 and then at 126.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 125.16.5 and then at 125.10.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.745 and then at this week’s high of 81.925. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.450 and then at this week’s low of 81.110. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $107.87 and then at the July high of $108.93. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $106.92 and then at $106.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Markets were firmer in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bullish posture for the grains Thursday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is lower and crude oil prices are higher. Traders will closely scrutinize Thursday morning’s USDA weekly export sales report. Recent export demand for U.S. grains has been good. Dry weather in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt is a bullish input for soybeans and to a lesser degree corn. However, there are scattered rains falling over the western Corn Belt Thursday morning.
