* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a bit of a “risk-off” trader/investor mentality in the market place to start the new trading week. In overnight news, European and Asian stocks digested news that China’s consumer inflation came in a bit lower than expected in the latest batch of Chinese economic data. That prompted speculation among traders that China’s central bank may have more leeway in further easing monetary policy. China’s trade
surplus also grew in September, which suggests domestic demand in China is on the upswing. However, the weekend China data also showed bank lending growth weaker than expected in September. Asian and European stocks showed mixed reactions to the China data, as European stocks were somewhat supported while Asian stocks were narrowly mixed. Third-quarter GDP data from China is due on Thursday. On the European Union sovereign debt front it’s Greece’s turn to be in the spotlight this week, as EU officials cannot seem to agree on how or when to provide the next tranche of bailout funds to the financially troubled country. Spain and its leaders’ reluctance to ask for fresh EU financial assistance is also a concern to the market place and is making for a more risk-averse overall trader/investor mentality Monday. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early but did hit a fresh five-week low early on today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 1,434.40 and then at 1,439.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,416.30 and then at 1,410.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer but hit another fresh two-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,740.00 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,705.00 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,255 and then at Friday’s low of 13,225. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 13,330 and then at 13,370. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 26/32 and then at 150 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 149 even and then at Friday’s low of 148 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly weaker early today. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.13.0 and then at last week’s high of 133.17.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.00.0 last week’s low of 132.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading today. The greenback bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.04 and then at last week’s high of 80.31. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.57 and then at last week’s low of 79.43. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field.In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $92.50 and then at $93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.82 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were solidly lower in overnight trading.Last week’s bullish USDA report is quickly fading to the background. Ideas of increased corn and soybean plantings in South America are bearish for those futures markets today.