* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
It was generally quiet in Asian and European markets overnight, except the gold and silver markets, which saw solid follow-through selling pressure from Thursday’s strong losses. The perceived decreasing odds of U.S. military action against the Syrian regime continue to pressure safe-haven gold. Many traders and investors this week have been looking ahead to next week’s meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). A majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank at next week’s meeting will announce it will begin to scale back, or “taper” its monthly bond-buying program. Some reckon the Fed will announce a $10 billion or $15 billion reduction in its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program. The surprise to the markets could be if the Fed either does nothing at this meeting, or is more aggressive in its initial reduction in bond purchases. For the past several weeks the market place has been fixated on what the U.S. central bank will announce at the conclusion of next week’s FOMC meeting. The Japanese Nikkei news service reported overnight that President Obama late next week will name Larry Summers as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar index rallied modestly on this report, while gold saw some added selling pressure—on notions Summers as a Fed chairman would be more hawkish on U.S. monetary policy than would present Fed vice chair Janet Yellen. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the producer price index, retail sales, manufacturing and trade inventories, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.–Jim Wyckoff
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today, on mild profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,680.60 and then at this week’s high of 1,690.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,669.20 and then at this week’s low of 1,654.90. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 3,175.25 and then at this week’s high of 3,189.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 3,160.00 and then at 3,150.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 15,275 and then at 15,300. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Thursday’s low of 15,220 and then at 15,200. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 131 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 130 22/32 and then at this week’s low of 130 3/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 123.13.0 and then at this week’s high of 123.26.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122.30.0 and then at this week’s low of 122.25.0 Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term technical playing field. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.915 and then at 82.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.695 and then at this week’s low of 81.520. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are lower early today. Crude oil bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $108.00 and then at the overnight high of $108.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $107.31 and then at $107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Markets were mostly weaker overnight. With Thursday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report digested and out of the way, focus will now turn to early yield reports on the harvesting of the U.S. corn and soybean crops in the Corn Belt—and on any fresh export demand for U.S. grains. Soybean bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears remain in firm technical command. My bias remains that while corn is still fully technically bearish, the price downside is limited at the present low levels.
