OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no real feature in overnight/early morning trading, as traders await this morning’s key Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Stock and Treasury market bulls are hoping the CPI report confirms Tuesday’s bullish PPI report. U.S. stock index prices are mixed and Treasuries are firmer. Gold is modestly higher and crude oil prices are slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, the CPI report, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, and weekly DOE liquid energy stocks data. Dallas Fed governor Fisher speaks today in Dallas.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are mixed in early morning electronic trading, following solid gains Tuesday. Traders are awaiting CPI. We are in the “dog days” of August, which likely means lackluster and trendless trading until the end of the month.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is now above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but just barely. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,280.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday’s low of 1,273.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at Tuesday’s high of 1,290.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at the August high of 1,297.60. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,283.75
1st Support:—— 1,277.00
2nd Support:—— 1,266.25
1st Resistance:— 1,294.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,301.25
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish today. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 1,525.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,500.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,542.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,565.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,527.70
1st Support:—— 1,513.30
2nd Support:—— 1,486.20
1st Resistance:— 1,554.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,569.20
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,200 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,148. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 11,265 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day, but is turning back higher. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,220
1st Support:—— 11,176
2nd Support:—— 11,103
1st Resistance:— 11,293
2nd Resistance:— 11,337
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are trading firmer in early trading in Chicago. Following Tuesday’s bullish PPI report, the bulls have fresh near-term technical momentum and are awaiting today’s key CPI report, hoping for another bullish number.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 108 29/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 108 19/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 108 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 108 16/32
1st Support:—– 108 4/32
2nd Support:—– 107 16/32
1st Resistance:– 109 4/32
2nd Resistance:– 109 16/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 106.12.5, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid resistance at the August high of 106.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 106.07.5, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.05.0
1st Support:—— 105.28.0
2nd Support:—— 105.16.0
1st Resistance:— 106.17.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.26.0
