NOTE: I will be out of the office until Monday afternoon, and your next blog report will be early Tuesday morning.–Jim
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no major feature in overnight/early morning trading. Gold is trading modestly lower and crude oil prices are also modestly lower. The U.S. dollar is near steady versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are slightly lower. Traders are awaiting this morning’s GDP report.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the employment cost index, advance GDP, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. President Bush and U.K. Prime Minister Blair hold a press conference today in Washington, D.C.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls are working prices up from their recent lows and weekly high closes today would be another bullish clue that near-term lows are in place.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning more bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day moving average, but is poised to move above it as soon as today. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Thursday’s low of 1,266.80. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Thursday’s high of 1,281.70. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more heavy buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the July high of 1,289.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,273.60
1st Support:—— 1,265.50
2nd Support:—— 1,258.70
1st Resistance:— 1,280.40
2nd Resistance:— 1,288.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still below the 18-day, but is turning north. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Thursday’s low of 1,484.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,516.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,525.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,498.50
1st Support:—— 1,480.25
2nd Support:—— 1,465.75
1st Resistance:— 1,512.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,530.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 11,124 and then more stops just below support at 11,085. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 11,225 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,250. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day and the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is still below the 18-day moving average, but is turning back north and could cross above the 18-day today. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,173
1st Support:—— 11,121
2nd Support:—— 11,073
1st Resistance:— 11,221
2nd Resistance:— 11,273
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have some near-term technical strength. Weekly high closes in Treasuries today would be significantly bullish. Traders are awaiting this morning’s GDP report.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today, but just barely. The 4-day moving average is barely above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 26/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 108 1/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Thursday’s low of 107 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week’s low of 107 7/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 24/32
1st Support:—– 107 16/32
2nd Support:—– 107 7/32
1st Resistance:– 108 1/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 9/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 105.26.5, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid resistance at the June high of 106.03.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 105.16.0, and then more sell stops just below support at this week’s low of 105.09.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.22.0
1st Support:—— 105.16.0
2nd Support:—— 105.12.0
1st Resistance:— 105.26.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.00.0
