Thursday, November 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market features in overnight/early morning trading today, as major markets are trading closer to unchanged levels.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that crude oil prices will bottom out soon, with prices not dropping below $50.00 a barrel, and if they do, not for very long.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed in early morning trading today. The bears still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 841.60 and then at the contract low of 825.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 875.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 894.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 871.00
1st Support:——– 831.00
2nd Support:——– 808.50
1st Resistance:—– 893.50
2nd Resistance:—– 933.50
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the contract low of 1,138.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,100.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,175.00 and then at 1,200.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,230.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,188.85
1st Support:—— 1,134.70
2nd Support:—— 1,105.85
1st Resistance:— 1,217.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,271.85
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,250 and then more stops just below support at 8,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then just above resistance at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,777
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,363
1st Support:—— 8,167
2nd Support:—— 8,053
1st Resistance:— 8,477
2nd Resistance:— 8,673
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer early today. Bulls do still have some fresh upside technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at 117 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at this week’s high of 118 22/32 and then at 119 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 118 5/32
1st Support:—– 117 20/32 2nd Support:—– 117 even
1st Resistance:– 118 25/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 10/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.08.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.21.5 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.11.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 116 13/32
1st Support:—– 115 30/32 2nd Support:—– 115 4/32
1st Resistance:– 117 7/32
2nd Resistance:– 117 22/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly weaker in early trading today but did set a fresh contract high overnight. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight contract high of 88.63 and then at 89.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.67 and then at 87.21. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 86.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The December Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2450 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2372. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2577 and then at 1.2650. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2694. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is slightly lower in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $725.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $738.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $708.10 and then at $700.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $718.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Prices hit a fresh 22-month low of $54.67 overnight. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $57.50 and then just above resistance at $59.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $56.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $54.67. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $61.40. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are neutral early today–crude oil prices are weaker and the U.S. dollar is also weaker. The U.S. stock indexes are narrowly mixed. Grain bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the grains. Weekly USDA export sales data, normally out today, are delayed until Friday because of this week’s Veteran’s Day holiday.
