NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below 9-week lows and fell further below its 50-day SMA on 11/10/11. The Ratio has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. This is cause for concern.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/10/11, turning bearish. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 13 trading days on 11/10/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,239.70) rose 10.60 points or 0.86% on Thursday, November 10, 2011, thereby recovering a modest fraction of its loss on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) opened higher on a gap, chopped around, down up down up down up, but closed below the open–not a victory for the bulls.

Trading volume on the NYSE fell 14% below Wednesday’s pace, thereby confirming the relative insignificance of the upside price bounce.

When light volume on rising price days is much less than heavy volume on falling price days, as in recent months, there is serious selling pressure and the market is vulnerable to price decline.

Momentum indicators remain bearish. The popular MACD (12/26/9) fell further below its Signal Line. Both MACD and MACD Histogram are pointing down.

The high price volatility of recent months is typical of bear markets. In contrast, bull markets are much less volatile.

Longer-term indicators still are far from confirming any change in the Bearish Primary Tide Trend. For example, 50-day SMAs are well below 200-day SMAs for most stocks and indexes.

Ripples and Secondary Reactions opposite to the Dow Theory Primary Tide Trend lure short-term traders into trying to trade a bounce. Price corrections against the larger trends are normal and expected, of course, but playing counter-trend bounces is risky. The mood can switch from “risk on” to “risk off” overnight, leaving the too-clever trader suddenly holding the bag.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. Both Averages would have to close above their closing price highs for the year to indicate a “Turn in the Tide”.

A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,239.70) Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1273.05, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10

S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,239.70) Potential Support
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1190.58, low of 10/13/2011
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) broke out above the highs of the previous 4 weeks and above 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs on 11/9/11, signaling a significant uptrend. Support 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.32 and 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 11/10/11–this following a break below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11. DBA remains below 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day SMAs. DBA remains bearish in all time frames.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) rose above 3-month highs and above its 200-day SMA on 11/10/11. The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, however, implying a neutral medium-term trend. Longer term, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.95, 38.47, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 11/10/11, suggesting a minor price pullback. GLD broke out above 6-week highs on 11/7/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish trend. Price remains bullishly above its 50- and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, new highs on 9/6/11 confirmed a major bull market. Support: 168.83, 163.61, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its 50-day SMA on 11/9/11, turning bearish again. Longer term, GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 11/10/11 but closed up for the day, suggesting a minor upside reversal. Longer term, SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11, fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11, and remains bearishly below both SMAs. Support 32.23, 31.50, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below the lows of the previous 2 weeks on 11/9/11, which might be bearish for the short term. Medium term, SLV/GLD has stayed in bearish position, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs, every day since 8/4/11. Longer term, the SLV/GLD Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below the lows of the previous 13 trading days on 11/10/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.17% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
1.84% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
8.21% , VIA.B , VIACOM STK B
5.68% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
1.35% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
1.33% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
1.36% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
1.42% , CHD , Church & Dwight
5.20% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.78% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
2.34% , ERTS , ELECTRONIC ARTS
1.97% , KSS , KOHLS
1.03% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.14% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
2.19% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.76% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.63% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
1.05% , NVDA , NVIDIA
0.23% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
3.49% , MRK , MERCK & CO
5.06% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
0.38% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
3.09% , RHI , ROBERT HALF
2.88% , DGX , QUEST DIAG
0.99% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
1.07% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.97% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
2.49% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
1.00% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.65% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
1.20% , EIX , EDISON INTL
0.72% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.60% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-11.93% , MPEL , Melco Crown Entertainment, MPEL
-4.58% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-3.50% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-2.81% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-2.60% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-9.53% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-1.03% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-2.26% , PWER , POWER ONE
-0.84% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-3.18% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-1.38% , EBAY , EBAY
-2.16% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
-3.33% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-3.46% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
-2.75% , CROX , CROCS Inc., CROX
-1.75% , TMO , THERMO ELECTRON
-2.55% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-0.95% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.87% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.51% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.11% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-2.53% , AVP , AVON
-0.52% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.16% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-5.60% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-0.91% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.77% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.19% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.50% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.73% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-0.17% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
-0.95% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-0.11% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.33% Italy Index, EWI
2.71% Germany Index, EWG
2.64% Russia MV, RSX
2.35% South Africa Index, EZA
2.04% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.95% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.91% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.88% European VIPERs, VGK
1.79% Energy DJ, IYE
1.78% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.78% Spain Index, EWP
1.75% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.74% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.68% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.64% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.63% Australia Index, EWA
1.62% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.58% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.55% Sweden Index, EWD
1.54% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.52% France Index, EWQ
1.51% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.49% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.48% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.42% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.33% Energy Global, IXC
1.26% Global 100, IOO
1.24% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.21% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.20% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.19% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.18% EAFE Index, EFA
1.17% Networking, IGN
1.16% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.14% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.13% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.10% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.08% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.07% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.07% Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.06% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.04% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.02% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.00% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.97% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.97% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.97% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.95% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.94% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.94% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.94% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.94% Mexico Index, EWW
0.93% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.91% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.90% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.89% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.85% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.83% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.82% Dividend International, PID
0.82% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.81% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.81% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.80% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.80% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.78% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.76% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.74% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.74% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.73% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.72% Belgium Index, EWK
0.72% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.71% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.68% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.67% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.66% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.66% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.66% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.65% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.64% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.63% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.60% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.60% Water Resources, PHO
0.59% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.59% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.57% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.57% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.54% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.54% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.52% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.52% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.52% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.51% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.51% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.50% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.47% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.44% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.42% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.41% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.41% China 25 iS, FXI
0.40% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.38% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.37% India PS, PIN
0.31% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.25% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.23% Austria Index, EWO
0.22% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.20% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.20% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.15% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.14% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.12% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.12% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.11% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.10% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.09% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.08% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.08% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.07% Canada Index, EWC
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.02% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.05% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.05% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.11% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.16% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.19% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.26% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.48% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.49% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.50% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.50% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.52% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.54% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.70% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.87% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.95% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.02% Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.49% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.51% Silver Miners Global X, SIL