Markets remain mixed
Lets start with the good news – UK PMI has risen to 42.9 in April from 39.5 in March, above market expectations of a reading around 40.5. Also in the UK- net consumer lending has been released to have hit its lowest level on record in March, totalling GBP0.9 billion, from 1.5 billion in Feb.
The Pound has risen on the back of better than expected UK manufacturing PMI, and lowest Net consumer lending on record; Sterling is also on the up against the euro and the Yen since the release- the key levels for sterling to target are 1.5065 on the USD and 1.13 on the euro.
Yesterday’s US data was a little mixed which was reflected in the Dollar’s performance. The afternoon ended on a high note with the release of a much better than expected Chicago PMI index which showed that new orders were at their highest level for 6-months. Following a running down of inventories there is showing a need for re-stocking but one must assume that this purchasing would not occur unless there was strong optimism that demand was returning.
This bodes well for this afternoon’s US ISM result. The ISM survey is good at reflecting turning points in economic direction and once the indicator picks up, it typically continues to climb steadily. Given this pattern and added to the strength seen in recent regional surveys, the market is looking for a rise to 38.2 from last month’s 36.3. The Dollar should end the day on a positive footing.
In other news, Mexico’s peso fell for the first time in three days after Finance Minister Carstens said the economy will drop for the next few months, reviving concerns the swine-flu outbreak will deepen a slump. The peso declined 0.9 percent to 13.8407 per U.S. dollar yesterday and the drop was the biggest among the six most-traded Latin American currencies.
Most of the World’s financial centers are closed today for the Labour Day holiday…most of Europe is off and it is a non-euro clearing day…could be some volatility as positions are closed ahead of the long UK weekend.
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