Stock indexes: Materials rising, Defensives falling.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 9-month highs. Bullish.
Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 6-month highs and is approaching a bullish signal, with the 50-day SMA closely approaching the 200-day SMA.
Health Care stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows. Bearish.
Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows. Bearish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs. Bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs. Bullish.
The Dow-Jones Transportation Average absolute price closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. Bullish.
NASDAQ Composite absolute price rose above 2-year highs. Bullish.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs. Bullish.
Crude Oil rose above 2-year highs. Bullish.
Gold rose above previous all-time highs. Bullish.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs. Bullish.
Silver rose above previous 30-year highs. Bullish.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs. Bullish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.54% , ASH , ASHLAND
9.58% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
4.85% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
3.05% , GCI , GANNETT
2.74% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
3.75% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
1.25% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.68% , ALTR , ALTERA
2.27% , LNCR , Lincare Holdings Inc
0.54% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
1.47% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
2.84% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
3.22% , NE , NOBLE
0.72% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.18% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.81% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
1.46% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
0.86% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.88% , QLGC , QLOGIC
0.30% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
0.84% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.58% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.22% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
0.39% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
0.26% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
2.06% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.84% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.54% , DLX , DELUXE
0.65% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
4.73% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
0.96% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
2.43% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.10% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
0.46% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
0.70% , YUM , YUM BRANDS
1.16% , WMB , WILLIAMS
0.61% , SLE , SARA LEE
1.24% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.32% , XLNX , XILINX
1.04% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.00% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-4.79% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-3.60% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
-2.66% , SYY , SYSCO
-0.46% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
-2.02% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-1.36% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.56% , SPLS , STAPLES
-1.55% , CSC , COMPUTER SCIENCE
-0.51% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-4.29% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-1.43% , XRX , XEROX
-3.93% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-1.68% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-0.83% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.72% , NSM , NATL SEMICONDUCT
-3.42% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-0.76% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
-0.28% , PHO , Water Resources, PHO
-3.78% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-1.69% , GAS , NICOR
-1.24% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
-1.42% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-0.17% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-1.21% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
-1.31% , TLAB , TELLABS
-0.55% , SDY , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.77% , BLL , BALL
-0.21% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.53% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-1.58% , DHR , DANAHER
-1.04% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-1.92% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-1.20% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.44% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-1.33% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-0.74% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.35% , CTAS , CINTAS
-0.35% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
-1.42% , CI , CIGNA
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 24.76, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 9-month highs on 11/8/10 and is bullish. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.36, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.56 and 39.00.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 11/3/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.59, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 35.00 and 36.16.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 6-month highs on 11/8/10 and is approaching a bullish signal, with the 50-day SMA closely approaching the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 11/5/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.92, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.00, 29.29 and 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 3-week highs on 11/5/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.75, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/8/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.70, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/8/10. Absolute price of XLU turned neutral on 11/1/10 when price crossed below the 50-day SMA, which remains above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.25, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/2/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10, confirming a bullish major long-term price trend. Support 79.84, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price soared above previous all-time highs on 11/8/10. Trends in all time frames are confirmed bullish. Support 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.
Silver nearest futures contract price soared above previous 30-year highs on 11/8/10. Trends in all time frames are confirmed bullish.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price moved above previous 2-year highs on 11/5/10. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.7035, 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 3-trading days on 11/3/10, which is a bearish sign for the short term. The Bond broke down below 10-week lows on 10/27/10, confirming a bearish trend in that larger time frame. It appears possible that Bonds have topped for the intermediate-term trend. Support 129.18, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 5-month highs on 10/27/10. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 10/29/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby demonstrating bearish long-term price momentum. Sentiment has been extremely bearish for months, but it appears that bearish fundamentals might be overcoming the bottom fishing temptation. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.61, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.7% Bulls versus 24.4% Bears as of 11/3/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at a moderately above average 1.91, up from an extreme low of 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from and extreme peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 17.92 on 11/5/10, down from 22.54 on 11/1/10. This indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase obvious price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,223.25) eased lower by 2.60 points or 0.21% on Monday 11/8/10, a mild pullback. On Friday, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market. The Primary Tide is too powerful to resist. “Don’t fight the tape.”
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.63% Silver Trust iS, SLV
1.96% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.25% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.18% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.03% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.86% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.84% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.84% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.81% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.71% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.62% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.50% Energy DJ, IYE
0.47% Canada Index, EWC
0.45% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.30% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.30% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.29% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.28% Singapore Index, EWS
0.27% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.25% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.25% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.25% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.25% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.22% Mexico Index, EWW
0.21% China 25 iS, FXI
0.18% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.13% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.13% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.13% Networking, IGN
0.12% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.10% South Africa Index, EZA
0.09% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.08% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.07% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.06% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.05% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.05% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.03% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.01% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.00% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.00% Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.02% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.03% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.04% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.04% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.05% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.07% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.08% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.09% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.09% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.10% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.10% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.11% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.11% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.11% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.14% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.16% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.16% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.18% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.19% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.19% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.19% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.19% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.21% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.25% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.25% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.28% Water Resources, PHO
-0.28% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.28% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.29% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.29% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.29% Energy Global, IXC
-0.30% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.32% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.32% Dividend International, PID
-0.34% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.35% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.36% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.38% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.39% Italy Index, EWI
-0.40% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.40% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.42% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.42% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.46% Global 100, IOO
-0.49% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.49% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.49% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.50% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.50% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.50% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.51% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.54% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.54% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.55% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.56% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.57% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.57% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.60% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.62% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.64% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.65% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.65% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.66% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.67% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.69% Germany Index, EWG
-0.69% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.70% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.71% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.74% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.76% Austria Index, EWO
-0.77% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.77% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.78% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.80% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.83% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.84% France Index, EWQ
-0.90% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.90% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.91% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.91% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.95% Australia Index, EWA
-1.13% Spain Index, EWP
-1.39% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.50% India PS, PIN
-1.71% Russia MV, RSX
