OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was weaker metals prices, on a pullback from sharp gains Wednesday. The U.S. dollar is trading near steady in early dealings. Crude oil is slightly lower in early electronic dealings. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady and the U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early electronic trading. Grains were mixed in overnight electronic trading.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, the Challenger layoffs survey, weekly jobless claims, the ISM non-manufacturing index, pending home sales, and weekly DOE liquid energy stocks data. Fed vice chairman Kohn speaks in London today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, on a corrective bounce from losses Wednesday. My bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term, with no strong trends developing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is well above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today, as the slow stochastics is still reading overbought. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of 1,274.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,285.00. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at this week’s high of 1,289.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
1st Support:—— 1,273.40
2nd Support:—— 1,267.10
1st Resistance:— 1,286.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,293.70
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still fully bullish. But while the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving averages, it will likely cross below the 9-day as soon as today to produce a bearish signal. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,564.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,558.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,5800.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1,599.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
1st Support:—— 1,555.00
2nd Support:—— 1,541.75
1st Resistance:— 1,590.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,612.75
September Dow: For today, light sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,180 and then just below support at 11,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,252 and then heavier buy stops just above resistance at this week’s high of 11,310. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish again today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today, as slow stochastics are into overbought territory.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
1st Support:—— 11,179
2nd Support:—— 11,143
1st Resistance:— 11,251
2nd Resistance:— 11,287
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were steady in overnight trading in Chicago. Traders are awaiting Friday’s key U.S. jobs report. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. But the 9-day is still below the 18-day. Oscillators are neutral to bearish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 106 even and then at 106 16/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the June low of 105 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Heavy sell stops are likely located below the contract low of 105 3/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 105 31/32
1st Support:—– 105 8/32
2nd Support:—– 104 24/32
1st Resistance:– 106 15/32
2nd Resistance:– 107 6/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are steady in early morning dealings. Oscillators are neutral to bearish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at 104.16.0, and then just above resistance at 104.22.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is now turning back south. The 9-day is still well below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Wednesday’s low of 104.05.0, and then heavy sell stops just below solid support at the contract low of 104.01.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
1st Support:—— 104.00.0
2nd Support:—— 103.23.0
1st Resistance:— 104.23.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.05.0