The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/6/14 by falling below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/6/14 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/6/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/6/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend.
Consumer Staples (XLP) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 2 years on 1/6/14, thereby reconfirming its major downtrend.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,826.77, down 0.25%) absolute price opened higher on Monday but peaked in the first minute, at 9:31 am ET. SPX headed down for nearly 2 hours, breaking down below the lows of the previous 7 trading days. An afternoon rally attempt fizzled in the final 77 minutes. SPX closed below the open, below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, and below the closing price levels of the previous 7 trading days.
The other prices indexed also fell, with the small-cap Russell 2000 getting the worst of it, declining 0.77%.
NYSE total volume rose 18% to a level 7% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE turned downward again on Monday. Both peaked out on Tuesday 12/31/13.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows) rose somewhat from a low level of 86 on Thursday 1/2/14 to 157 on Monday. That was far below peaks above 800 in 2013. In December, Net New Highs remained below its previous highs of 2012 and 2013, thereby diverging bearishly compared to higher highs for the large-capitalization stock price indexes.
Momentum oscillators RSI and MACD based on the S&P 500 declined over the past 3 trading days, following their relatively modest recoveries from their lows on 12/13/13 and 12/17/13 to their highs on 12/31/13. Both remained below their previous 2013 highs as the S&P 500 price rose to higher price highs in December.
Momentum divergences, persistently low trading volume, and excessive bullish sentiment remain challenges to a sustainable upside trend. On the other hand, the bullish case appears to rest primarily on continuation of central banks’ highly-accommodative monetary policies and hopes for faster economic recovery.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 12/31/13 when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its highest levels of the previous 15 months on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term uptrend. QQQ/SPY rose above its 50-day SMA on 11/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose above its 50-day SMA on 10/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/6/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF fell below its lows of the previous 7 weeks on 1/2/14, thereby confirming its preexisting short-term downtrend. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 6 years on 1/6/14, thereby confirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 10/31/13 by crossing below its 50-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and remains stuck in that trading range.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lowest levels of the previous 5 months on 12/18/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY substantially underperformed, and that secular downtrend may still be in effect.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 1/6/14 by rising back up above its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/20/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/26/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/6/14 by falling below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 12/31/13 and remains systematically bullish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 1/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). UUP has whipsawed between systematically neutral and bearish since 9/12/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed down below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.32, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 1/2/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. DBA has been in a cyclical bear market for nearly 3 years, since it peaked at 35.58 on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 1/2/14, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). USO is now below both SMAs, and the 50-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA. Support 32.94, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.59, 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 12/31/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. GLD price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 122.32, 131.44, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 7 years on 12/23/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major long-term downtrend. GDX/GLD has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 5 months on 12/31/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish trend. SLV price fell below its 50-day SMA on 10/31/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.69, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 1/2/14, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD substantially for 27 months from 4/28/11 to 7/30/1, but SLV has held up better then GLD since 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 27 months from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.28% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
3.39% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.52% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
2.03% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
4.00% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
5.26% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.35% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
2.79% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
3.25% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.23% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.53% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
3.62% , LVLT.K , LEVEL 3 COMMUNICATIONS
0.90% , PCAR , PACCAR
1.51% , NI , NISOURCE
1.32% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
1.42% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.35% , BBT , BB&T
0.68% , SYK , STRYKER
0.19% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
1.02% , AEE , AMEREN
0.90% , KEY , KEYCORP
1.32% , USB , US BANCORP
1.31% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
0.34% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.83% , XRX , XEROX
0.94% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
0.84% , LLY , ELI LILLY
1.34% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.16% , PKI , PERKINELMER
0.49% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
0.45% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.69% , AZO , AUTOZONE
0.15% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.98% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-3.43% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
-3.12% , BBY , BEST BUY
-2.33% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-3.54% , WFM.O , Whole Foods Market Inc
-0.92% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-2.83% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.92% , AFL , AFLAC
-2.73% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-0.47% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.58% , ECL , ECOLAB
-2.39% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-2.84% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
-0.71% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.86% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.39% , BCR , C R BARD
-2.78% , EBAY , EBAY
-3.02% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.93% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-1.30% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-2.21% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.26% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
-1.63% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-1.49% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
-0.16% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.30% , LEG , LEGGETT & PLATT
-2.81% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.22% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.51% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.36% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-1.98% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.41% , OMC , OMNICOM
-1.87% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.94% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.42% , Spain Index, EWP
0.91% , Italy Index, EWI
0.77% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.65% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.59% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.56% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.51% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.50% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.49% , Germany Index, EWG
0.46% , Austria Index, EWO
0.45% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.44% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.44% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.42% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.41% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.40% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.35% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.34% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.30% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.28% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.24% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.23% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.22% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.22% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.20% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.18% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.17% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.16% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.15% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.14% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.13% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.13% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.12% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.12% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.11% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.11% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.09% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.09% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.07% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.06% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.02% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.00% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.03% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.03% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.03% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.07% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.07% , France Index, EWQ
-0.08% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.09% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.11% , Global 100, IOO
-0.11% , Networking, IGN
-0.12% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.13% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.13% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.16% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.17% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.18% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.24% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.26% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.26% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.27% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.28% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.29% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.29% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.30% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.31% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.32% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.33% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.33% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.33% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.34% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.35% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.35% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.36% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.37% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.38% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.38% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.39% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.40% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.41% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.41% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.42% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.42% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.43% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.44% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.45% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.47% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.47% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.48% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.49% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.52% , Dividend International, PID
-0.53% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.55% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.58% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.58% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.58% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.59% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.59% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.59% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.59% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.60% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.60% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.62% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.63% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.64% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.64% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.64% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.66% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.69% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.70% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.70% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.71% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.76% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.76% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.79% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.80% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.81% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.83% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.87% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.92% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.93% , India PS, PIN
-0.95% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.96% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-1.07% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.14% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-1.15% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.17% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.18% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.30% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.40% , Russia MV, RSX
-1.77% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.87% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1849.44 high of 12/31/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1793.80, 50-day SMA
1767.99, low of 12/18/2013
1760.64, low of 11/13/2013
1746.20, low of 11/7/2013
1740.50, low of 10/23/2013
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1683.47, 200-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
