U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has sagged lower since 10/26/10, which implies that fixed-income investors actually have been choosing less inflation protection, contrary to those voices warning of inflation recently.

Crude Oil fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again confirming a bullish major long-term price trend.

Gold fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10, again confirming the bullish major trend.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs and remains bullish.

Silver fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.

Copper fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears to have found resistance at 78.64 and closed lower for the first time in 6 trading days. The short-term bounce could be over. USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,199.21) fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 11/12/10, confirming a minor price pullback for the short term. This week, SPX retraced a normal 66.7% fraction of its gain from its November intraday low–a typical price correction within a larger uptrend. Such minor price pullbacks ought to be limited in this phase of the stock market. On Friday 11/5/10, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.72% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
7.76% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
1.47% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
2.96% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
5.15% , NVDA , NVIDIA
1.67% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
1.70% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.05% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
1.50% , KR , KROGER
1.76% , A , AGILENT TECH
2.36% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.64% , NOVL , NOVELL
1.22% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
3.17% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
1.58% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
1.51% , INTC , INTEL
0.76% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.16% , ETN , EATON
0.33% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
0.68% , CIEN.O , CIENA
1.28% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
0.88% , SWY , SAFEWAY
0.40% , CLX , CLOROX
0.46% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
5.07% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
0.71% , MMC , MARSH & MCLENNAN
0.49% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
1.33% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.19% , KO , COCA COLA
0.97% , CI , CIGNA
0.05% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.07% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.03% , AEE , AMEREN
0.37% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.12% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-10.88% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-1.87% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
-1.90% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-0.96% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-1.69% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-4.18% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-3.02% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-1.97% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-1.40% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-1.40% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.43% , ELG , Growth Large Cap, ELG
-5.87% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-3.31% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.18% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-4.83% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-0.93% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
-2.88% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.38% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-5.42% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
-0.83% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.72% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-2.42% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
-3.75% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
-1.47% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
-0.19% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-1.37% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
-5.08% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
-0.95% , PRU , PRUDENTIAL FINL
-2.47% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-3.34% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-2.63% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-3.49% , BA , BOEING
-2.65% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-3.38% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-3.62% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.21% , NOV , NATIONAL OILWELL VARC0
-3.11% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.36% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-2.42% , EEM , Emerging Markets, EEM

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/12/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.84, 35.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.

Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 10-month highs on 11/11/10 and gave a new bullish signal: the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 61.93, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.

Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 10-month highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.21, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.56 and 39.00.

Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 24.22, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.28 and 25.69.

Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 10-week lows on 11/11/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.25, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.53, 35.00, and 36.16.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.56, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.00, 29.29 and 30.29.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/10/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.70, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/8/10. Absolute price of XLU peaked on 10/20/10 and appears neutral. Support 31.21, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) remains bearish, below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.75, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 15.68, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 11/11/10 and is now neutral.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish for the long term. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/8/10 and remains bullish.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/11/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/10/10 and remains bullish.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 11/11/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 11/12/10, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Oil rose above 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again reconfirming a bullish major long-term price trend. Support 79.84, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 88.63, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 11/12/10, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 11/9/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Support 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1424.3.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 11-month highs on 11/12/10 and remains bullish.

Silver nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 11/12/10, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 11/9/10, confirming a bullish major trend.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 5 trading days on 11/12/10, signaling a minor price pullback for the short term. Copper rose above previous 2-year highs on 11/11/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.7035, 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 2 months on 11/10/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 127.14, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.27, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 5-month highs on 10/27/10. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 10/29/10 and remains bullish.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has sagged lower since 10/26/10, which implies that fixed-income investors actually have been choosing less inflation protection, contrary to all those voices loudly warning of inflation.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price appears to have found resistance at 78.64 and closed lower for the first time in 6 trading days on 11/12/10. The short-term bounce could be over. USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.64, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 48.4% Bulls versus 23.1% Bears as of 11/10/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at an above average 2.10, up from an extreme low of 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from an extreme peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.

VIX Fear Index collapsed to the 18-22 range in November, down from 48 last May. This indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase obvious price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,199.21) fell below the lows of the previous 6 trading days on 11/12/10, confirming a minor price pullback for the short term. This week, SPX retraced a normal 66.7% fraction of its gain from its November intraday low–a typical price correction within a larger uptrend. Such minor price pullbacks ought to be limited in this phase of the stock market. On Friday 11/5/10, SPX closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1227.08, high of 11/5/10

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1177.65, low of 11/1/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

0.33% Spain Index, EWP
0.31% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.07% Austria Index, EWO
0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.20% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.22% Germany Index, EWG
-0.30% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.33% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.35% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.37% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.39% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.40% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.44% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.44% Networking, IGN
-0.46% Italy Index, EWI
-0.49% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.53% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.54% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.55% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.63% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.63% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.67% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.70% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.71% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.74% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.77% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.79% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.80% Global 100, IOO
-0.81% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.81% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.82% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.82% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.83% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.83% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.93% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.93% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.94% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-0.98% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.98% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.03% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-1.03% France Index, EWQ
-1.04% Value VIPERs, VTV
-1.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.05% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.05% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-1.06% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.08% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.09% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-1.11% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.13% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.16% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-1.17% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-1.17% Dividend International, PID
-1.18% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-1.19% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-1.19% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-1.22% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.25% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.25% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-1.25% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-1.26% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-1.30% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.31% Technology DJ US, IYW
-1.31% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.32% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.33% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-1.33% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.36% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-1.36% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.39% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-1.40% Technology SPDR, XLK
-1.40% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-1.41% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-1.44% MidCap Russell, IWR
-1.45% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-1.45% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-1.45% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-1.47% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-1.47% Energy DJ, IYE
-1.47% Energy SPDR, XLE
-1.48% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-1.49% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.52% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.54% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-1.54% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.55% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.56% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.56% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.57% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.57% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-1.58% Financial DJ US, IYF
-1.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-1.59% Energy Global, IXC
-1.60% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.60% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-1.64% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-1.65% Financial SPDR, XLF
-1.66% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.67% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-1.69% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.69% Microcap Russell, IWC
-1.71% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.72% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-1.77% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.77% Water Resources, PHO
-1.77% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-1.81% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.90% Canada Index, EWC
-1.93% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-1.94% Australia Index, EWA
-1.95% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.97% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-2.14% Russia MV, RSX
-2.14% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.21% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-2.23% Materials SPDR, XLB
-2.30% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-2.36% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-2.37% Taiwan Index, EWT
-2.42% Emerging Markets, EEM
-2.43% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.47% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-2.53% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-2.65% Singapore Index, EWS
-2.71% Indonesia MV, IDX
-2.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.01% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.18% India PS, PIN
-3.21% South Korea Index, EWY
-3.31% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-3.47% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.60% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-3.62% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-4.17% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-4.18% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-5.87% Silver Trust iS, SLV