The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,244.58) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 9 trading days on 12/1/11 but could not hold its gains and closed slightly lower for a minor reversal day. SPX remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
VIX Fear Index fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks to 26.64 on 12/1/11, down from a peak 37.53 on 11/1/11, indicating diminishing fear.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price appears to have lost upside momentum since peaking at 39.74 on 11/16/11.
Markets may remain volatile, with a continuing heightened sensitivity to news, and with continuing large daily moves in both directions. Note that very high price volatility is typical of bear markets, while bull markets are much less volatile. Reward/Risk still appears significantly skewed to the Risk side.
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Stock Market Indicators
The S&P 500 Composite (SPX: 1,244.58) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 9 trading days on 12/1/11 but could not hold its gains and closed slightly lower for a minor reversal day.
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1307.28, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2011 range
1292.66, high of 10/27/11
1277.55, high of 11/8/2011
1265.43, 200-day SMA
1263.21, high of 11/3/2011
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1257.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2011 range
1256.55, high of 10/24/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/11
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1222.68, Fibonacci 50% of 2011 range
1221.06, low of 10/26/2011
1215.42, low of 11/1/2011
1209.43, low of 11/17/2011
1204.49, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2009-11 range
1187.77, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2011 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1144.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2011 range
1101.73, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-11 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1018.69, Fibonacci 50% of 2009-11 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
935.64, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-11 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
817.40, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-11 range
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both Dow-Jones Averages, Industrial and Transportation, closed below their closing price lows of the previous 11 months. This Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower closing price lows for both Averages. A short-term downtrend was confirmed on 11/21/11 when both Averages closed below previous 4-week lows after making lower highs since peaking on 10/27/11.
A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated. The median Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market in history lasts 16 months and takes stock prices down 34%. In a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market, the big surprises usually come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio broke down below the lows of the previous 3-months on 11/30/11 and has been trending lower since peaking on 9/23/11. Absolute price of the NASDAQ Composite remains below its falling 200-day SMA, and the 50-day SMA has been bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/12/11.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) remains bearishly below the 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 1/13/11.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) remains below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/3/11.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 7 years on 11/25/11, reconfirming the preexisting major Bear trend. The 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA of the EFA/SPY Ratio every day since 1/14/11.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) has been in a rising trend since 11/4/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 8/25/11. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative safety of large size. Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors prefer riskier and more volatile stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/11/11.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has been in a downtrend since 4/5/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/24/11.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 69.5% Bulls plus Neutrals versus 30.5% Bears as of 11/30/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. Sentiment has returned to normal: the 20-year median of Bulls plus Neutrals is 69.40 and the mean is 68.32.
VIX Fear Index fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks to 26.64 on 12/1/11, down from a peak 37.53 on 11/1/11, indicating diminishing fear. VIX is down from a high of 48.00 on 8/8/11.VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) fell below the lows of the previous 12 trading days on 12/1/11. TLT fell below its 50-day SMA but remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/24/11. Support 115.21, 109.82, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 123.05 and 125.03.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) > fell below the lows of the previous 21 trading days on 12/1/11. IEF fell below its 50-day SMA but remains above its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 6/21/11. Support 102.32, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance 105.43 and 106.66.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been in a downtrend since 2/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 6/20/11. JNK/LQD broke down below the lows of the previous 29-months on 10/3/11. Absolute price of JNK has been weak since 10/27/11 and remains bearish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been in a downtrend since peaking on 4/8/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/15/11.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) fell hard since peaking at 22.44 on 11/25/11 but still remains bullishly above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. The 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 10/26/11. Support 21.92, 21.58, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.44 and 22.62.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) stabilized somewhat in recent days after falling below the lows of the previous 11 months on 11/25/11–which confirmed a major bearish downtrend in all time frames.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price appears to have lost upside momentum since peaking at 39.74 on 11/16/11. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 7/14/11. Finally, USO broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 to confirm a major bear market. Support 36.79, 36.49, 34.54, 32.52, 29.10, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.74, 40.74, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 9 trading days on 12/1/11 but could not hold its gains and closed lower for a minor reversal day. GLD remains bullishly above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, and the 50-day SMA has remained bullishly above the 200-day SMA every day since 2/11/09. Support: 162.07, 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains below its falling 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 2/22/11. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 9 trading days on 12/1/11 but could not hold its gains and closed lower for a minor reversal day. SLV remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 10/27/11. SLV price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, which confirmed a bearish major trend for the long term. Support 29.83, 29.14, 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 34.44, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) remains bearishly below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/30/11. This SLV/GLD downtrend means investors prefer Gold over Silver.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above the highs of the previous 4 weeks on 11/30/11. JJC remains below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, the 50-day SMA has remained bearishly below the 200-day SMA every day since 8/8/11. Major trend weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.00% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
1.28% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
6.43% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
4.03% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
3.33% , BA , BOEING
3.31% , YHOO , YAHOO
1.21% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
2.02% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
0.44% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
4.44% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.46% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
2.55% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.22% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.28% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
0.37% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
2.40% , GOOG , Google
0.65% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
0.58% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.11% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.09% , MHS , MEDCO HEALTH
0.14% , ISI , LargeCap Blend S&P 1500 iS, ISI
0.33% , TEVA , Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited
0.04% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% , PKI , PERKINELMER
1.45% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
0.22% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
0.09% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.11% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.13% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.01% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
0.04% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.23% , RTH , Retail H, RTH
0.40% , WMB , WILLIAMS
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.38% , KSS , KOHLS
-1.42% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
-1.31% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-0.45% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.14% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-0.55% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-0.14% , PMR , Retail, PMR
-0.59% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.80% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-0.63% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-4.72% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-1.61% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.61% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.78% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-1.24% , VPL , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.44% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
-0.24% , TIP , Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.37% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.39% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-0.87% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.40% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.34% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.80% , PPL , PPL
-3.94% , JNS , JANUS CAPITAL
-0.94% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.77% , BC , BRUNSWICK
-0.49% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-1.67% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
-0.05% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-1.24% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.40% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
-0.20% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.72% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.46% Brazil Index, EWZ
1.13% Taiwan Index, EWT
1.10% China 25 iS, FXI
0.69% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.67% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.64% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.58% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.55% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.54% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.51% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.50% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.48% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.41% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.36% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.21% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.19% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.17% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.15% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.13% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.09% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.08% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.05% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.04% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.00% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.02% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.03% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.05% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.05% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.06% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.06% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.09% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.11% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.12% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.12% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.14% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.16% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.19% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.20% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.20% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.20% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.22% Canada Index, EWC
-0.22% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.24% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.28% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.29% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.29% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.29% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.30% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.31% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.31% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.31% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.32% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.32% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.32% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.34% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.34% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.37% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.38% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.41% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-0.41% Dividend International, PID
-0.41% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.42% Global 100, IOO
-0.44% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.44% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.45% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% Networking, IGN
-0.47% Italy Index, EWI
-0.49% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.49% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.52% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.53% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.53% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.53% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.55% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.55% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.57% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.57% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.58% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.58% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.58% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.59% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.60% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.60% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.61% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.61% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.64% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.66% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.67% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.68% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.68% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.72% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.72% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.73% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.74% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.75% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.78% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.78% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.80% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.82% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.85% Spain Index, EWP
-0.86% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.86% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.86% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.87% Energy Global, IXC
-0.88% France Index, EWQ
-0.88% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.88% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.91% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.92% Germany Index, EWG
-0.93% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.95% Australia Index, EWA
-0.95% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.96% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-1.02% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-1.08% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.10% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-1.13% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-1.16% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-1.24% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-1.24% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-1.31% Russia MV, RSX
-1.33% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.38% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.40% Water Resources, PHO
-1.40% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.42% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.44% India PS, PIN
-1.50% Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.52% Belgium Index, EWK
-1.53% Sweden Index, EWD
-1.65% Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.13% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-2.17% Austria Index, EWO
-2.93% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
