The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,123.95) rose 24.72 points or 2.25% on Tuesday, October 4, 2011. SPX gapped down on the open and lost more by 9:56 a.m. Stocks struggled up and down until the final hour, when a news wire reported that finance ministers in Europe might be looking for ways to recapitalize shaky financial institutions. Stock prices bounced up in the last hour, recovering most of what they lost the day before.

There have been many hopeful news reports about the financial crisis in Europe in recent weeks, each sparking brief relief rallies, and each bounce followed by renewed stock price weakness. Why should this one be any different?

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011. A Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market is a powerful beast that must not be underestimated.
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Includes Top Ten ETFs, Major Trend Relative Strength Rankings, charts, support and resistance levels, and much more.
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Stock Market Indicators

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below the lows of the previous 4 weeks on 10/3/11, confirming a minor downside correction. The Ratio rose above previous 10-year highs on 9/23/11, reconfirming a long-term uptrend. A long NASDAQ Composite and short S&P 500 hedge was a winning trade from 10/8/2002 to 9/23/11, and that major trend probably will resume in time. NASDAQ absolute price remains bearish, falling below 52-week price lows and falling further below falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 10/4/11.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below 31-month lows on 10/4/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. This basket of the stocks of Brazil, Russia, India and China is in a relatively bearish major trend.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 29-month lows on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 7-year lows on 9/19/11, reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. Absolute price broke down below 2-year lows on 10/4/11 and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) shot up above the highs of the previous 14-months on 10/3/11. OEX/SPX rose above 50-day and 200-day SMAs on 9/21/11, which was a RELATIVELY bullish sign for the short-term trend of the Ratio. Absolute price of OEX remains bearish.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below 20-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major downtrend. Absolute price has been weak since 5/2/11, broke down below 13-month lows on 10/4/11, and remains bearishly below falling 50- and 200-day SMAs.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18-months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend. MDY/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 13-months on 10/4/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 37.6% Bulls versus 40.9% Bears as of 9/28/11, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear Ratio was 0.92, up from 0.87 two weeks ago That 0.87 ratio was the lowest level since August, 2010 and was more than 1 standard deviation below the 20-year average. The 20-year median is 1.56 and the mean is 1.64.

VIX Fear Index remains stuck in its 7-week, relatively high level trading range, from a low of 30.16 to a high of 48.00. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 8/2/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed below their closing price lows of June, 2011. The Bear Market was confirmed on 10/3/11 by lower lows for both Dow-Jones Industrial and Transportation Averages.

The S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,123.95) rose 24.72 points or 2.25% on Tuesday, October 4, 2011.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1370.58, high of 5/2/11
1359.44, high of 5/10/11
1356.48, high of 7/7/11
1347.00, high of 7/21/11
1258.07, low of 6/16/11
1249.05, low of 3/16/11
1246.73, high of 12/13/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1234.56, low of 8/3/11
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1230.71, high of 8/31/11

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1074.77, low of 10/4/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) rose above all-time highs on 10/4/11, reconfirming a long-term, major uptrend. Support 115.76, 114.05, 111.25, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance 125.03.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) rose above the highs of the previous 6 trading days on 10/4/11 before pulling back into the previous day’s range. The minor trend turned up on 9/28/11. IEF rose above all-time highs on 9/22/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support 103.80, 103.55, 102.50, and 102.38. Resistance 106.66.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 29-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 13-month lows on 10/3/11, reconfirming a bearish long-term major trend. This means that fixed-income investors have been choosing the unprotected 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury Note ETF (IEF) over the inflation-protected TIPs. So, fixed-income investors may be more worried about deflation than inflation.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above the highs of the previous 8 months on 10/4/11, reconfirming a major price uptrend. After the collapse of gold and the Swiss Franc, the U.S. dollar may be the last refuge for risk-averse investors. Support 22.13, 21.94, 21.75, 21.56, 21.42, and 20.84. Resistance 22.63.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 10/3/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price broke down below 17-month lows on 10/4/11, reconfirming a major long-term downtrend. Support 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 32.83, 32.91, 35.08, 35.14, 39.25, 40.74, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price broke down below 9-week lows on 9/26/11,confirming a downtrend, for the short term at least. Gold rose above all-time highs on 9/6/11, reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Support: 154.19, 153.61, 147.19, 143.97, 143.42, and 142.55. Resistance: 162.29, 170.32, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/ Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) remains bearishly below its falling 50-day and 200-day SMAs. GDX/GLD fell below 29-month lows on 8/8/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Investors still prefer Gold bullion over Gold Miners.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price broke down below the lows of the previous 7 months on 9/26/11, confirming a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV fell back below its 50-day SMA on 9/19/11 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 9/22/11. Support 27.41, 26.03, and 24.44. Resistance: 32.62, 34.51, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71 and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) broke down below the lows of the previous 11 months on 9/30/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. SLV/GLD has been mostly weak since peaking on 4/28/11. This means investors prefer Gold over Silver.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below the lows of the previous 14 months on 10/4/11, reconfirming a bearish major trend for the long term. Such weakness in Copper suggests serious concerns about the economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

2.61% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
1.89% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
1.99% , HHH , Internet H, HHH
3.35% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
5.42% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
4.64% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
5.81% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
4.01% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
3.01% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.26% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
4.99% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
7.36% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
2.57% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
2.78% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
7.18% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
3.98% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.47% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
5.73% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
5.34% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
11.52% , DLX , DELUXE
2.37% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
1.60% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
8.57% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
6.60% , IJR , SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
2.99% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
8.57% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
8.29% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
7.12% , MDP , MEREDITH
11.69% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
2.72% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
4.60% , EFX , EQUIFAX
2.68% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
2.51% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name

-7.46% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-6.45% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
-8.46% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-2.19% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-1.96% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.87% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-2.18% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-1.85% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-1.41% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-2.06% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.15% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-4.27% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.36% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.84% , SMH , Semiconductor H, SMH
-0.40% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
-1.19% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-1.99% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-2.17% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.32% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-1.32% , AEP , AM ELEC POWER
-1.43% , DYN , DYNEGY
-0.50% , EWH , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.59% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.73% , RSX , Russia MV, RSX
-4.03% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.36% , PEG , PUBL SVC ENTER
-2.11% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.91% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-1.48% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.93% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-0.67% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
-0.56% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.28% , AEE , AMEREN
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

7.36% Microcap Russell, IWC
7.03% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
6.60% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
6.46% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
6.37% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
6.36% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
6.23% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
6.13% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
5.98% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
5.98% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
5.54% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
5.37% Water Resources, PHO
5.34% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
5.28% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
5.18% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
4.99% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
4.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
4.42% Networking, IGN
4.17% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
4.16% Biotech SPDR, XBI
4.16% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
4.14% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
4.11% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
4.09% Financial Services DJ, IYG
4.03% REIT Wilshire, RWR
4.02% Financials VIPERs, VFH
4.01% Spain Index, EWP
3.99% Financial SPDR, XLF
3.98% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
3.94% Financial DJ US, IYF
3.94% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
3.89% Materials SPDR, XLB
3.82% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
3.78% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
3.77% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
3.46% Energy VIPERs, VDE
3.38% South Korea Index, EWY
3.32% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
3.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
3.18% Taiwan Index, EWT
3.16% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
3.12% Energy DJ, IYE
3.01% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
2.97% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
2.96% Italy Index, EWI
2.94% MidCap Russell, IWR
2.93% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
2.78% Industrial SPDR, XLI
2.73% Dividend SPDR, SDY
2.73% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
2.72% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.68% EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.57% France Index, EWQ
2.55% Indonesia MV, IDX
2.53% Energy Global, IXC
2.53% South Africa Index, EZA
2.51% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
2.48% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
2.47% Austria Index, EWO
2.41% Growth VIPERs, VUG
2.36% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
2.36% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
2.31% Technology DJ US, IYW
2.28% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
2.27% Australia Index, EWA
2.25% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
2.25% Mexico Index, EWW
2.24% Value VIPERs, VTV
2.24% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
2.20% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
2.19% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
2.18% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
2.16% Malaysia Index, EWM
2.15% Netherlands Index, EWN
2.15% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
2.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
2.08% Switzerland Index, EWL
2.05% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
2.04% Technology SPDR, XLK
2.01% Germany Index, EWG
2.00% European VIPERs, VGK
1.96% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.94% Dividend International, PID
1.94% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.84% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.83% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.80% Global 100, IOO
1.68% EAFE Index, EFA
1.67% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.60% Belgium Index, EWK
1.55% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
1.55% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.54% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.53% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.50% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.49% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.45% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.31% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.29% Japan Index, EWJ
1.28% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.28% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.28% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.07% Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.05% India PS, PIN
0.96% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.95% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.83% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.58% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.57% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.56% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.54% Sweden Index, EWD
0.51% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.37% Singapore Index, EWS
0.31% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.25% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.16% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.13% China 25 iS, FXI
0.07% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.06% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.20% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.22% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.23% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.31% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.31% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.49% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.50% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.51% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.73% Russia MV, RSX
-0.81% Canada Index, EWC
-0.83% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.87% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.87% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.87% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.90% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-1.27% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.36% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.66% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.96% Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-2.06% Gold Shares S.T., GLD