U.S. stock market price indexes opened modestly lower on Friday, turned to the plus side by 9:47 a.m. ET, then suddenly collapsed below the early range and previous day’s low to a lower low by 11:27 a.m. ET. Stocks attempted a half-hearted recovery that fizzled by 1:32 p.m. ET. Prices slowly drifted downward in the final two hours to close below the open, below the previous close, and below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,691.42) fell 0.36% on Friday and fell 1.07% for the week as a whole. SPX is nearly unchanged over the past 3 weeks, which suggests a loss of upside price momentum.
NYSE total volume fell 6% a level 11% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE rose slightly on Friday. In July and so far in August, both failed to rise above their May highs; the S&P 500 rose to a new high at 1,709.67 on 8/2/13, but Volume and Breadth did not rise to higher highs. Therefore, both Volume and Breadth remain bearishly divergent relative to the price indexes. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), failed to rise above their May highs in recent weeks to confirm new highs by the price indexes. So, both oscillators remain bearishly divergent.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 8/1/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/8/13.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price has drifted slightly lower after peaking at 64.14 on 5/22/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price recently were extremely oversold and now show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 105.00, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price recently were extremely oversold and now show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 100.86, 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 102.86, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP fell below its 200-day SMA on 8/2/13, and the 50-day SMA could be heading toward a possible bearish cross below the 200-day SMA in weeks ahead. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. In recent weeks, however, USO price has stalled out below its peak of 38.62 on 7/19/13. Support 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 38.62, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SPV may be consolidating losses within its longer term downtrend: SLV price trend was bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11 until price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, and that down trend may not be finished. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/8/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13, and that long-term down trend may not be over. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.29% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
5.74% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
10.63% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
3.90% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
0.31% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
3.06% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
3.92% , AA , ALCOA
4.02% , NUE , NUCOR
9.34% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
0.88% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
4.29% , TLAB , TELLABS
5.99% , HAR , Harman International
4.50% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
1.67% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
1.42% , NE , NOBLE
1.19% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
2.00% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
0.83% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
1.82% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
0.88% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.13% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
0.71% , HES , AMERADA HESS
4.20% , X , US STEEL CORP
0.58% , XLB , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.42% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
0.36% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
0.14% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
2.00% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
1.21% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
0.29% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.36% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.88% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.88% , VNQ , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.19% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-3.27% , ETR , ENTERGY
-3.12% , GPS , GAP
-1.95% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.42% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-5.78% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.83% , XEL , XCEL ENERGY
-0.65% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.85% , WPO , Washington Post
-1.43% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
-1.20% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.98% , BBBY , BED BATH BEYOND
-1.52% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-1.23% , KLAC , KLA TENCOR
-0.57% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.54% , KBH , KB HOME
-0.53% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.93% , IR , INGER RAND
-0.11% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
-0.38% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
-0.31% , VV , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-1.39% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-0.24% , IWD , Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.70% , DE , DEERE & CO
-0.79% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.44% , CR , CRANE
-0.15% , HMA , HEALTH MGMT STK A
-1.36% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.30% , XLE , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.42% , MKC , MCCORMICK
-0.35% , IVW , Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.14% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.45% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.88% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.04% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.80% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.49% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.95% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.92% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.88% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.88% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.83% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.82% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.81% , Russia MV, RSX
0.71% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.66% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.65% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.64% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.63% , Australia Index, EWA
0.60% , Austria Index, EWO
0.59% , Italy Index, EWI
0.58% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.56% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.55% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.53% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.51% , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.50% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.50% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.47% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.41% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.38% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.36% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.36% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.34% , Spain Index, EWP
0.33% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.30% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.30% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.29% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.28% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.25% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.24% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.20% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.20% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.18% , Canada Index, EWC
0.18% , Dividend International, PID
0.17% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.16% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.16% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.16% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.12% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.11% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.11% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.10% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.10% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.07% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.07% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.07% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.07% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.06% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.06% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.04% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.04% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.04% , Germany Index, EWG
0.03% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.03% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.03% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.03% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.01% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Water Resources, PHO
0.00% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.00% , France Index, EWQ
0.00% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.04% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.04% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.06% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.07% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.07% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.08% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.09% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.11% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.12% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.13% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.13% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.14% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.14% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.14% , Global 100, IOO
-0.17% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.19% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.20% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.21% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.22% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.23% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.23% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.24% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.24% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.25% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.26% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.26% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.27% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.28% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.29% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.30% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.30% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.31% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.31% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.31% , India PS, PIN
-0.32% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.32% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.33% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.34% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.35% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.35% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.37% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.37% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.38% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.39% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.40% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.41% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.42% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.43% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.45% , Networking, IGN
-0.51% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.51% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.51% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.51% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.56% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.57% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.59% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.59% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.61% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.65% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.66% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.68% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.69% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.36, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1543.41, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
