Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Here is the Weather Trends outlook for the progress of the Indian monsoon over the next 7 days.  The first map shows total precipitation expectations for the next 7 days, the second is the forecast vs. the same period in 2009 and the third map is the forecast vs. normal (same time period again).  As the monsoon progresses, some of the rain over the next week will to move into the sugarcane growing regions in the northern states;  this will be helpful to the cane crop as these regions have been moisture deficient thus far (see earlier post highlighting precipitation deficiencies).  With nearby sugar futures now above 17 cents, this pattern may help to curb a continued rise in prices over the next week.  However, India’s domestic stockpiles for the sweetener are still low, so physicals may be held back from the market, thereby keeping sustained upside pressure on raws.