Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

The seasonal progress for monsoon rains (week ending August 4) is shown below, via the Indian Met Dept.  Most analyst discussions in the sugar market over the last week have focused on a better pattern emerging, but for sugar growing regions, this is only half of the picture.  Per the Weather Trends long range forecast, growing regions in the southern states are doing well, but moisture is well behind seasonal normals in the northern states.  The market is expecting for a shift back to a global surplus in physical supply for the coming year; however, this rebound is partially contingent upon a good Indian crop, which means that both north and south need to produce strong numbers.  Our concerns about India meeting these production requirements based on the pattern are still present.