Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Looking the this morning’s model runs, by day 3, high pressure looks to set in once again over northern India, and the favorable rainfall pattern that the northern growing belt has seen over the last couple of days will start to scale back.  500mb hts (via GFS) hinting at trough placement residing over the southern subcontinent by Friday, with a higher chance of increased convection and cyclonic activity to develop over the Indian Ocean/Arabian Sea west of Kerala; this will stimulate a healthy moisture pattern into central India, bringing good rains to cane fields in Maharashtra.  However, it does not look like the circulation will bring significant totals to UP/Bihar for days 3 through 5.