Highlights based on trading on Monday, May 7, 2012:
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months.
CRB Commodity Price Index fell below its lows of the previous 4 months.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) fell below its lows of the previous 4 months.
Energy Sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 19 months, while absolute price fell below the lows of the previous 4 months.
The S&P 500 (SPX: 1,369.58) recovered from an opening loss to close up 0.48 points or 0.04% on Monday. NYSE trading volume fell 11%.
SPX remained below its 50-day SMA all day on Monday, after breaking down below it on Friday. SPX is now down 3.49% from its closing price high of 1,419.04 on 4/2/12.
Popular momentum indicators based on the SPX daily close price have been relatively weak and are trending down bearishly. RSI(14), now at 42.94, has been relatively bearish since it closed at 75.38 on 2/9/12. Stochastic(14,3,3) fell to 31.77, down from 90.04 on 4/30/12. MACD(12,26,9) fell to -0.21, is below its Signal Line, and is down from 19.08 on 2/9/12.
SPX has traded in a 4.57% range, between intraday extremes of 1,357.38 and 1,422.38, for 8 weeks, since 3/8/12. The extremes of this range may be considered support and resistance.
With all up trendlines and the 50-day SMA now broken, probabilities appear to favor a break of support and further downside risk.
The Reward to Risk Ratio for the stock market remains unattractive.
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Equity Mutual Funds lost 6% in 2011, according to Lipper Research Services.
Hedge funds lost 5%, according to COO Connect.
Hedge funds suffered their second-worst year on record in 2011, according to an index maintained by Eurekahedge, an independent research firm that specializes in hedge fund data. Some of the world’s largest and best-known hedge funds suffered huge losses, down 20% to 50%.
But not all money managers were down in 2011; see:
Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc. (click here).
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9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Full report available by subscription only (click here).
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
0.15% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
8.70% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
0.31% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
5.92% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
0.15% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
2.28% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.82% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.94% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
1.43% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
2.04% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
0.46% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
0.65% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
0.44% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.88% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
0.75% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.49% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
2.07% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
0.80% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
1.35% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
0.84% , ICF , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.29% , EFX , EQUIFAX
0.99% , EWU , United Kingdom Index, EWU
2.75% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.37% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.78% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
0.85% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
0.40% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.22% , PGF , Financial Preferred, PGF
2.38% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.15% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.86% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
1.84% , ASH , ASHLAND
1.20% , GCI , GANNETT
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-19.18% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-3.02% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
-0.28% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-3.24% , LIZ , LIZ CLAIRBORNE
-0.48% , PWO , OTC Dynamic PS, PWO
-1.81% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
-0.24% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
-0.60% , DBO , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.79% , ADRA , Asia 50 BLDRS, ADRA
-1.70% , DOV , DOVER
-1.21% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-0.14% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-1.14% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
-0.81% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-1.46% , PETM , PETsMART Inc
-1.69% , MOLX , MOLEX
-2.68% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
-2.09% , DLX , DELUXE
-1.73% , WYNN , Wynn Resorts L
-0.56% , AEE , AMEREN
-0.96% , LOW , LOWES
-0.61% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
-1.38% , R , RYDER SYSTEM
-1.57% , LO , Lorillard, Inc. LO
-1.73% , STLD , Steel Dynamics, STLD
-0.95% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-2.79% , HAR , Harman International
-0.22% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.42% , VIA.O , VIACOM INC. (New)
-2.14% , ZEUS , Olympic Steel, ZEUS
-0.10% , PUI , Utilities, PUI
-2.55% , WPO , Washington Post
-0.17% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.94% India PS, PIN
2.93% Italy Index, EWI
2.75% Spain Index, EWP
2.38% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.21% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.63% Mexico Index, EWW
1.43% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.35% Austria Index, EWO
1.28% France Index, EWQ
1.15% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.08% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.03% European VIPERs, VGK
0.99% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.85% Belgium Index, EWK
0.84% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.82% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.75% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.73% EAFE Index, EFA
0.70% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.63% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.57% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.56% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.53% Dividend International, PID
0.50% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.49% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.49% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.47% Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.47% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.46% Germany Index, EWG
0.45% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.44% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.44% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.42% Japan Index, EWJ
0.41% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.41% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.40% Sweden Index, EWD
0.40% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.39% Global 100, IOO
0.39% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.39% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.39% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.39% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.38% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.36% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.36% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.35% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.34% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.33% Canada Index, EWC
0.30% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.30% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.28% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.27% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.25% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.24% South Korea Index, EWY
0.22% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.22% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.22% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.21% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.19% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.19% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.19% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.18% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.17% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.17% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.16% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.15% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.15% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.14% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.13% South Africa Index, EZA
0.13% Energy Global, IXC
0.13% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.12% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.10% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.10% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.09% QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.09% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.08% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.08% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.07% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.07% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.07% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.07% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.06% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.06% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.06% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.06% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.05% Water Resources, PHO
0.04% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.04% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.04% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.02% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.02% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.00% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.00% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.01% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.03% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.03% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.04% Australia Index, EWA
-0.04% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.05% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.09% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.09% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.10% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.10% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.12% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.13% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.14% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.14% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.18% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.19% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.20% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.22% Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.22% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.24% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.25% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.28% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.28% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.28% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.29% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.30% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.31% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.32% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.38% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.39% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.41% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.51% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.52% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.54% Russia MV, RSX
-0.58% Networking, IGN
-0.60% Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.62% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.64% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.67% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.69% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.85% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-1.01% Singapore Index, EWS
