DJ SURVEY: US Corn, Soybean Production And Yield
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2011-12 U.S. corn and soybean production, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its October production report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Wednesday.
Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
Sep 2010
Average Range USDA Production
Corn (23) 12.492 12.342-12.690 12.497 12.447
Soybeans (23) 3.094 3.050-3.162 3.085 3.329
Yield
Sep 2010
Average Range USDA Yield
Corn (23) 148.9 147.2-150.9 148.1 152.8
Soybeans (23) 42.0 41.0-42.9 41.8 43.5
Corn Corn Soy Soy
Production Yield Production Yield
ABN Amro 12.600 150.0 3.121 42.3
ADM Inv Services 12.585 150.0 3.091 42.0
AgriSource 12.362 148.3 3.131 42.5
Agrivisor 12.690 150.9 3.116 42.1
Allendale 12.558 149.7 3.083 41.9
Citigroup 12.560 149.4 3.101 42.0
Doane Advisory Srvcs 12.342 148.0 3.050 41.5
Farm Futures 12.498 149.0 3.081 41.8
FCStone 12.553 148.7 3.157 42.8
Globl Cmd Anlytics 12.520 148.6 3.090 42.1
*Informa 12.519 149.5 3.087 41.8
Jefferies Bache 12.377 147.2 3.055 41.4
Kropf and Love 12.417 148.0 3.072 41.8
Linn Group 12.371 148.9 3.086 42.2
Macquarie Bank 12.497 148.1 3.085 41.8
Midco 12.582 149.7 3.110 42.2
North Am Risk Mgmt 12.510 149.3 3.107 42.3
Newedge 12.404 148.0 3.081 41.7
PFG Best 12.395 148.0 3.095 41.9
Prime Ag 12.615 150.0 3.085 41.8
Risk Mgmt Commod 12.420 148.0 3.060 41.0
RJ O’Brien 12.374 147.3 3.052 41.4
US Commodities 12.568 149.8 3.162 42.9
*From traders
DJ SURVEY: US Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2011-12 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Wednesday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
2011-12
Sep 2010-11
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (20) 0.795 0.646-0.989 0.672 1.128*
Soybeans (20) 0.181 0.153-0.255 0.165 0.215*
Wheat (16) 0.747 0.674-0.810 0.761 0.861
*From quarterly grain stocks report
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 0.980 0.190 0.750
ADM Investor Srvcs 0.903 0.255 0.752
AgriSource 0.750 0.200 0.810
Agrivisor 0.989 0.176 n/a
Allendale 0.826 0.183 0.728
Citigroup 0.794 0.200 0.776
Doane Advisory Srvcs 0.690 0.155 0.757
Farm Futures 0.646 0.162 0.674
Global Comm Analytics 0.815 0.166 0.685
Jefferies Bache 0.659 0.165 0.692
Kropf and Love 0.750 0.176 0.732
Macquarie Bank 0.672 0.165 0.761
Midco 0.878 0.182 n/a
Newedge USA 0.675 0.180 0.805
N Am Risk Man. 0.848 0.179 0.747
PFG Best 0.730 0.160 0.770
Prime Ag 0.900 0.180 0.725
Risk Management Comm. 0.725 0.165 n/a
RJ O’Brien 0.863 0.153 0.782
US Commodities 0.801 0.226 n/a
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher in all markets on a weaker US Dollar. It looked like speculative buying hit the pit, and there was not enough commercial selling for the buyers. Minneapolis December held the range from Friday and it seems that the market is getting squeezed on tight available supplies of Hard Red Spring Wheat. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most areas could see some showers this weekend. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat lost to Corn yesterday. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains after weekend rains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions after some rains today. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions after some showers today. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and higher for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Syria has tendered for 100,000 tons of Wheat and Bangladesh is seeking 50,000 tons. Japan will seek about 129,000 tons of Wheat at its weekly tender.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 602, 597, and 591 December, with resistance at 615, 623, and 629 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 684, 678, and 675 December, with resistance at 703, 711, and 715 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 923, 911, and 904 December, and resistance is at 945, 950, and 957 December.
RICE
General Comments Prices were lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative and harvest selling. A weaker US Dollar offered some support early, but the support faded as traders worried about a lack of demand. Charts trends turned down with the price action last week. US supplies are expected to remain very tight in the USDA reports coming out tomorrow morning. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and coming storms. Vietnam and Chinese prices are high. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although showers are possible in a day or two. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions, but some showers are possible midweek in the Delta. Temperatures will average above normal early this week and below normal late this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1505 November. Support is at 1540, 1530, and 1476 November, and resistance is at 1580, 1590, and 1604 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to a much weaker US Dollar against some harvest related selling due to higher prices and steady to firm basis levels in the country. Some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses, but traders generally expect an uptick on yields on the USDA reports Wednesday due to reports heard from farmers until now. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work, although progress should slow down about midweek as showers move through the region. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is firm, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico bought 261,200 tons of US Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 596, 594, and 576 December, and resistance is at 618, 623, and 646 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 316, 311, and 306 September, and resistance is at 330, 334, and 336 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculator buying tied to a weaker Dollar. Reports of good yields in the country hurt futures, and harvest progress is rapid this week due to dry and warm weather. Traders are looking for demand news. The export side of the market seems quiet, but reports indicated that processors were stepping up buying interest. Western areas will continue to move ahead with harvest, and eastern areas can try to catch up this week. Basis levels are weak in the country, but farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen this week, so planting is started. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1170, 1152, and 1149 November, and resistance is at 1183, 1193, and 1206 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 301.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 317.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4890, 4850, and 4760 December, with resistance at 5100, 5210, and 5310 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed due to a holiday. Light selling from producers and elevators was noted. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was higher today on outside markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 511.00, 505.00, and 490.00 November, with resistance at 525.00, 530.00, and 532.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2770, 2755, and 2740 December, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2865 December.
Midwest Weather: Showers and storms from west to east about midweek. Temperatures will average above normal early this week and below normal late this week.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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