The USDA reports this morning are considered bullish for Soybeans, but not for Corn and Wheat. Opening calls have been for Soybeans to open about 10 higher, Corn to open about 5 higher, Wheat to open mixed, and Rice to open steady to higher. The higher than expected Corn and Whet ending stocks estimates come mostly from the increased supplies seen in the quarterly stocks reports, although exports were dropped for Corn by 50 million bushels and feed use and exports were dropped for Wheat. Exports were cut for Soybeans as well, but the lower carry in and production more than made up for the lost demand.

10/12 07:30 CDT October 12 U.S. soy, wheat, corn highlights – USDA October 12 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following key U.S. crop information in its monthly world supply-and-demand report. The data includes last month’s forecast for comparison.

SOYBEANS
(Million bushels, except where noted)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Sep Oct
SOYBEANS
Planted (mln acre) 77.5 77.4 75.0 75.0
Harvested (mln acre) 76.4 76.6 73.8 73.7
Yield/acre (bu) 44.0 43.5 41.8 41.5
Production 3,359 3,329 3,085 3,060
Crushings 1,752 1,648 1,635 1,635
Exports 1,499 1,500 1,415 1,375
Ending stocks 151 215 165 160
SOYBEAN OIL (mln lbs)
Production 19,615 19,050 18,670 18,670
Exports 3,359 3,200 1,800 1,800
Ending stocks 3,406 2,816 2,146 2,171
SOYBEAN MEAL (thou short tons)
Production 41,707 39,518 38,835 38,835
Exports 11,160 9,100 8,550 8,550
Ending stocks 302 350 300 300
WHEAT
Planted (mln acre) 59.2 53.6 55.2 54.4
Harvested (mln acre) 49.9 47.6 45.9 45.7
Yield/acre (bu) 44.5 46.3 45.2 43.9
Production (mln bu) 2,218 2,207 2,077 2,008
Exports (mln bu) 879 1,289 1,025 975
Ending stocks (mln bu) 976 862 761 837
WHEAT BY CLASS
(mln bushels)
Year beginning Hard Hard Soft
June 1 Winter Spring Red White Durum Total
2010/11
Production 1,018 570 237 275 106 2,207
Exports 616 339 109 182 43 1,289
Ending stocks 386 185 171 85 35 862
2011/12 (projected)
Production 780 405 458 313 52 2,008
Exports 430 220 125 180 20 975
Ending stocks:
October 298 157 244 111 28 837
September 272 158 197 106 28 761
CORN
(Million bushels, except where noted)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Sep Oct
Planted (mln acre) 86.4 88.2 92.3 91.9
Harvested (mln acre) 79.5 81.4 84.4 83.9
Yield/acre (bu) 164.7 152.8 148.1 148.1
Production 13,092 12,447 12,497 12,433
Exports 1,980 1,835 1,650 1,600
Ending stocks 1,708 1,128 672 866
U.S. ETHANOL PRODUCTION
Ethanol and By-products 4,591 5,020 5,000 5,000
U.S. SOY OIL FOR BIODIESEL
Methyl Ester 1,680 2,500 3,600 3,600
FORECASTS: Analysts polled by Reuters expected the USDA report to show the
following U.S. crop data:
Corn 2011/12 end stocks……………..806 mln bushels
Corn 2011/12 production…………..12.471 bln bushels
Corn 2011/12 yield……………….148.7 bushels/acre
Soybeans 2011/12 end stocks………….183 mln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 production………..3.081 bln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 yield…………….41.8 bushels/acre
Wheat 2011/12 end stocks…………….733 mln bushels

10/12 07:30 CDT October 12 World grain highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) – World grain production will total 2,278.86
million tonnes in the 2011/12 crop year, up from a previous forecast of
2,267.69 million, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Wednesday.
World output for 2011/12 would include 681.20 million tonnes of wheat,
1,136.28 million of coarse (feed) grains and 461.39 million of rice.
Oilseeds were pegged at 453.47 million tonnes.
The following are highlights from USDA’s latest monthly World Agricultural
Supply an Demand report, with the previous month’s estimate for comparison:

WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES
2011/12 2010/11
Oct Sep Oct Sep
WHEAT (mln tonnes)
Australia Crop 26.00 25.00 26.00 26.00
Australia Exports 19.00 17.00 18.30 17.50
Argentina Crop 13.50 13.50 15.00 15.00
Argentina Exports 7.50 7.50 9.00 9.00
EU Crop 136.33 135.79 135.61 135.61
EU Exports 16.00 16.00 22.85 22.60
Canada Crop 24.20 24.00 23.17 23.17
Canada Exports 18.00 17.00 16.50 16.50
China Crop 117.00 117.00 115.18 115.18
China Imports 1.00 1.00 0.93 0.94
FSU Crop 110.45 107.45 80.97 80.97
FSU Exports 34.71 33.21 14.13 14.61
SOYBEANS (mln tonnes)
Brazil Crop 73.50 73.50 75.50 75.50
Brazil Exports 36.50 36.50 29.95 29.88
Brazil Imports 0.05 0.05 0.03 0.03
Argentina Crop 53.00 53.00 49.00 49.00
Argentina Exports 11.80 11.80 8.50 8.50
China Imports 56.50 56.50 52.00 52.00
SOYOIL (mln tonnes)
China Imports 1.60 1.60 1.55 1.55
SOYMEAL (mln tonnes)
China Imports 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30
Oct Sep Oct Sep
CORN (mln tonnes)
Argentina Crop 27.50 27.50 22.50 22.00
Argentina Exports 19.50 19.50 15.00 14.50
S.Africa Crop 12.50 12.50 11.80 12.00
S.Africa Exports 2.00 2.00 2.50 2.50
China Crop 182.00 178.00 177.25 173.00
China Exports 0.20 0.20 0.10 0.10
China Imports 2.00 2.00 1.00 1.30
COTTON (mln bales)
China Crop 33.50 34.00 30.50 30.50
China End Stocks 13.55 14.05 11.60 11.60
China Exports 0.05 0.05 0.12 0.12
China Imports 14.00 14.50 11.98 11.98
India Crop 27.50 27.00 25.40 25.40

10/11 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA
10-11-2011 15:00 U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA

WASHINGTON, Oct. 11 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 10/09/11 10/02/11 10/09/10 5-year

COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 5 4 13 N/A
– Good 25 25 42 N/A
– Fair 28 29 30 N/A
– Poor 18 19 11 N/A
– Very Poor 24 23 4 N/A

CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 11 11 20 N/A
– Good 42 41 48 N/A
– Fair 28 28 21 N/A
– Poor 12 13 8 N/A
– Very Poor 7 7 3 N/A

SOYBEANS CONDITION
– Excellent 12 11 18 N/A
– Good 44 43 46 N/A
– Fair 28 29 24 N/A
– Poor 11 12 9 N/A
– Very Poor 5 5 3 N/A

SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 5 4 9 N/A
– Good 20 20 51 N/A
– Fair 29 31 29 N/A
– Poor 24 24 9 N/A
– Very Poor 22 21 2 N/A

PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 8 8 9 N/A
– Good 34 31 36 N/A
– Fair 38 38 32 N/A
– Poor 14 16 17 N/A
– Very Poor 6 7 6 N/A

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 6 N/A
– Good 26 27 36 N/A
– Fair 28 26 32 N/A
– Poor 19 19 17 N/A
– Very Poor 23 24 9 N/A

COTTON BOLLS OPEN 90 84 92 83
COTTON HARVESTED 26 16 31 24
CORN MATURE 89 79 97 88
CORN HARVESTED 33 21 50 32
SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES 90 76 94 92
SOYBEANS HARVESTED 51 19 63 46
RICE HARVESTED 74 65 84 80
WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 59 42 69 67
WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 28 16 37 38
SUGARBEETS HARVESTED 16 13 46 40
SUNFLOWERS HARVESTED 8 4 11 11
SORGHUM COLORING 91 86 100 95
SORGHUM MATURE 63 54 87 73
SORGHUM HARVESTED 37 30 50 43
PEANUTS HARVESTED 33 19 35 29

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Oct 11
For the week ending Oct 6, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Oct 6 Sep 29 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 342.4 606.7 639.7 11,073.0 11,148.0
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.9 0.6
Barley 0.0 0.3 0.4 116.7 72.6
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
Corn 808.4 743.8 856.2 3,647.5 5,200.1
Sorghum 32.2 86.4 17.5 277.4 342.6
Soybeans 636.5 303.5 1,340.1 1,881.8 3,226.0
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 1,819.6 1,740.9 2,854.0 16,999.6 19,990.9
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed lower in all markets on a weaker US Dollar. It looked like speculative buying hit the pit, and there was not enough commercial selling for the buyers. Minneapolis December held the range from Friday and it seems that the market is getting squeezed on tight available supplies of Hard Red Spring Wheat. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most areas could see some showers this weekend. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat lost to Corn yesterday. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains after weekend rains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions after some rains today. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions after some showers today. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and higher for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 650, 640, and 632 December, with resistance at 662, 667, and 670 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 720, 715, and 711 December, with resistance at 737, 755, and 760 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 923, 911, and 904 December, and resistance is at 945, 950, and 957 December.

RICE
General Comments Prices were lower again yesterday on what appeared to be speculative and harvest selling. A weaker US Dollar offered some support early, but the support faded as traders worried about a lack of demand. Charts trends turned down with the price action last week. US supplies are expected to remain very tight in the USDA reports coming out tomorrow morning. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and coming storms. Vietnam and Chinese prices are high. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although showers are possible in a day or two. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions, but some showers are possible midweek in the Delta. Temperatures will average above normal early this week and below normal late this week.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1505 November. Support is at 1540, 1530, and 1476 November, and resistance is at 1604, 1610, and 1620 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to a much weaker US Dollar against some harvest related selling due to higher prices and steady to firm basis levels in the country. Some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses, but traders generally expect an uptick on yields on the USDA reports Wednesday due to reports heard from farmers until now. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work, although progress should slow down about midweek as showers move through the region. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is firm, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders. Basis levels are steady in the country.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Mexico bought 261,200 tons of US Corn overnight.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 623, 615, and 608 December, and resistance is at 640, 650, and 655 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 334, 330, and 324 September, and resistance is at 340, 342, and 346 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculator buying tied to a weaker Dollar. Reports of good yields in the country hurt futures, and harvest progress is rapid this week due to dry and warm weather. Traders are looking for demand news. The export side of the market seems quiet, but reports indicated that processors were stepping up buying interest. Western areas will continue to move ahead with harvest, and eastern areas can try to catch up this week. Basis levels are weak in the country, but farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen this week, so planting is started. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.

Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1238, 1226, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1258, 1279, and 1282 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 317.00, 315.00, and 312.00 December, and resistance is at 324.00, 329.00, and 337.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5100, 5000, and 4960 December, with resistance at 5310, 5330, and 5365 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was closed due to a holiday. Light selling from producers and elevators was noted. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was higher today on outside markets.

Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 530.00, 525.00, and 522.00 November, with resistance at 542.00, 544.00, and 546.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2770, 2755, and 2740 December, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2865 December.

Midwest Weather: Showers and storms from west to east about midweek. Temperatures will average above normal early this week and below normal late this week.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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