COTTON

General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday as USDA showed higher production and ending stocks estimates in domestic and world data. Most had expected less production and ending stocks at least here in the US if now throughout the world. The reports changed some attitudes for the short term.. There has been a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures, but some of this demand might disappear. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft on the export side. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except showers and rains along the southeast coast today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 96.26 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.019 million bales, from 0.016 million yesterday. ICE said that 3 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 224 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 157.00, 162.00, and 176.00 December. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 105.00, 107.00, and 110.00 December.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher on a weaker US Dollar and neutral USDA reports. USDA estimated oranges production in line with trade estimates. Florida weather remains a negative for prices. The weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see showers, and there are no tropical systems in sight. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends began to turn up on the charts last week, but then stalled. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Rain are seen again this week in Brazil.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers and storms today and drier conditions the rest of this week and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal..

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 176.00 and 191.00 November. Support is at 160.00, 155.00, and 152.00 November, with resistance at 166.00, 170.00, and 171.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Oct 12
In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC).
2010-2011
Oct 01 Sep 24 Year Ago
MOVEMENT
Retail 113,137 142,487 274,799
Institutional 329,515 346,006 274,492
Bulk 1,317,925 1,381,058 1,858,578
Total 1,760,577 1,869,551 2,407,869
Cumulative 148,469,897 146,709,320 130,232,270
IMPORTS
Foreign 9,556 0 0
Cumulative 18,329,866 18,320,310 21,929,687
RECEIPTS
Domestic 0 0 0
PACK
Retail 172,033 145,483 259,607
Institutional 281,456 296,138 426,979
Bulk 619,299 561,118 776,734
Less Reprocessed 1,057,711 1,002,739 1,463,320
Net 15,077 0 0
Cumulative 82,106,728 82,091,651 82,252,237
Inventory 51,626,258 53,137,876 94,985,113

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday on speculative buying tied to a weaker US Dollar. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keeps people wondering about upside potential. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around, which range as high as 60 million bags. Rains are falling now. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials, although some end of the season old crop lots are showing up now.

Good weather is reported in Mexico and Central America, although some parts of Central America are now getting too much rain. Chart trends are trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 1.413 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 190.35 ct/lb. Brazil should see showers this week. Temperatures will average near normal, but near to below normal starting this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 214.00 December, and resistance is at 231.00, 237.00, and 240.50 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1885, 1860, and 1840 November, and resistance is at 1940, 1990, and 2020 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 335.00, and 342.00 December.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed a little higher yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged. There was not a lot of news for Sugar traders today. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. There were some flooding rains in Thailand over the weekend that could have damaged Sugarcane. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Europe is said to have very good crops this year, and Russia could export for the first time in 12 years. Chart trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil through today but it will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2840 March. Support is at 2565, 2540, and 2480 March, and resistance is at 2640, 2720, and 2730 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 665.00, 659.00, and 654.00 December, and resistance is at 677.00, 685.00, and 693.00 December.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London yesterday on speculative selling. Talk of over supply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.

Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.866 million bags. Ivory Coast exports are now 20,000 tons this year, up 0.6% from last year. European Cocoa grind was 377,388 tons in the third quarter, up 14% from last year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2610, 2590, and 2560 December, with resistance at 2670, 2710, and 2740 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1620 and 1480 December. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 December, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1760 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Free-Subscribe to receive Daily Newsletters via Email