DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 14
For the week ended Oct 6, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2011-2012 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2010-11.
Source: USDA
-a: Includes new sales activity the week Sep 29-Oct 6, which
resulted in a net increase of 221.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
337.0 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-11.
-b: Includes new sales activity the week Sep 29-Oct 6, which
resulted in a net increase of 10.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes
25.7 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-11.
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 483.6 17.0 15151.5 18273.7 4563.3 80.6
corn 1258.9 85.4 18368.1 18973.3 14630.0 744.6
soybeans 672.4 0.0 17489.8 23301.9 15658.3 40.0
soymeal 558.6-a 4.5 2199.0 2503.0 2103.3 45.4
soyoil 36.6-b 0.0 75.4 660.5 74.1 0.0
upland cotton 63.0 44.6 6684.8 9812.6 5750.0 226.3
pima cotton 0.0 0.0 370.6 238.4 359.7 5.2
sorghum 31.4 0.0 450.8 1088.2 276.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 81.3 96.2 0.3 0.0
rice 63.4 0.0 944.5 1325.7 436.9 0.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower in all markets on follow through selling in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA cut feed and export demand and increased ending stocks more than anticipated. USDA also increased world stocks, implying that any improvement in demand will be hard fought at best. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat lost to Corn again yesterday in the wake of the USDA reports. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 605, 602, and 597 December, with resistance at 620, 632, and 640 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 684, and 678 December, with resistance at 716, 720, and 730 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 880, 871, and 862 December, and resistance is at 911, 923, and 934 December.

RICE
General Comments Prices were higher yesterday after trading lower for much of the session. Much of the buying seemed to be tied to price action in other markets. Charts trends are turning up with the price action this week. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. The country admits losses to 1.0 million tons and the losses could be higher after the typhoon this week. Vietnam and Chinese prices are high. Vietnamese sales defaults could total 520,000 tons due to high prices now. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and more flooding is possible in the next few days. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although showers are possible today. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal through the weekend.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1646, 1690, and 1859 November. Support is at 1620, 1614, and 1610 November, and resistance is at 1652, 1676, and 1680 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower on follow through selling in reaction to the USDA reports. However, lows were made early ion the session and the losses at the end of the day were not very big at all. USDA showed a little less production than expected due to reduced planted area, but cut feed and export demand more to show increased ending stocks. USDA also showed increased Corn production and stocks around the world. The data still keeps the US in a tight situation overall and implies that prices will generally stay high, although probably not as strong as the least production year overall. Some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work, although progress should slow down today as showers move through the region. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders. Ethanol demand data was good yesterday, but down a little from the previous report.
Overnight News: Basis was firm at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 622, 618, and 604 December, and resistance is at 646, 655, and 666 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 352, 368, ad 418 December. Support is at 337, 336, and 334 September, and resistance is at 346, 349, and 354 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculator buying tied to the USDA reports and more positive chart patterns. USDA cut production and ending stocks for Soybeans while trade estimates had pointed to increases in both areas. Reports of good yields in the country hurt futures, and harvest progress is rapid this week due to dry and warm weather. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible about Tuesday. Traders are looking for demand news, and ideas are that China is buying. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen this week, so planting is started. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are firm at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1245, 1226, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1258, 1278, and 1282 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 324.00, 317.00, and 315.00 December, and resistance is at 329.00, 337.00, and 342.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 5100, 5000, and 4960 December, with resistance at 5250, 5310, and 5330 December.

DJ NOPA Sep Soybean Crush Breakdown-Oct 14
NOPA says soybean crush was 110.313 million bushels for September,
down 8.454 million bushels from the previous month.
Soybeans in thousand bushels, soymeal in short tons, soyoil
in thousand pounds, yield in pounds per bushel. Cumulative crush
figures which began October 1, 2010, are estimated due to rounding
calculated by Dow Jones. r-revised. (a)-capacity figures are
updated quarterly. Source: National Oilseed Processors Association.

————–TOTAL————-

Sep 11 Aug 11 Sep 10
Soybeans crushed 110,313 118,767 124,917
Soymeal produced 2,639,998 2,852,254 2,924,266
Soymeal yield 47.86 48.03 46.82
Soymeal exports 300,347 473,297 361,890
Soyoil produced 1,290,933 1,386,071 1,427,965
Soyoil yield 11.70 11.67 11.43
Soyoil stocks 1,950,420 2,312,954 2,765,159

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in quiet trading. Light selling from producers and elevators was noted. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Farmers are light volume sellers. Palm Oil was higher today on outside markets and ideas of strong exports. Export demand was very strong to start the month and new data this weekend is likely to continue to show strong demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 546.00 and 590.00 November. Support is at 525.00, 522.00, and 518.00 November, with resistance at 538.00, 542.00, and 544.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2880 and 2940 December. Support is at 2835, 2830, and 2820 December, with resistance at 2900, 2950, and 3000 December.

Midwest Weather: mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.

Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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