WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher in recovery trading. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains. Traders will now pay more attention to the southern Great Plains as that is where most of the Wheat is and it is too dry there. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together, Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Iraq bought 350,000 tons of Wheat, including 150,000 tons from Canada and Russia and 50,000 tons from Australia.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 605, 602, and 597 December, with resistance at 633, 640, and 650 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 688, 684, and 678 December, with resistance at 716, 720, and 730 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 880, 871, and 862 December, and resistance is at 911, 923, and 934 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 524,518
: Positions
: 73,629 165,232 175,732 15,799 35,778 53,644 83,949 53,925 14,165 29,079 83,295
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 3,982 1,094 241 -569 -718 -97 -1,749 169 -2,391 2,067 305
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 14.0 31.5 33.5 3.0 6.8 10.2 16.0 10.3 2.7 5.5 15.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 427
: 79 97 19 8 25 50 81 63 57 94 114
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 167,200
: Positions
: 32,902 78,559 25,379 249 3,350 35,166 16,600 22,346 11,334 3,596 14,078
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 208 -3,452 2,540 249 736 -6,062 1,690 556 1,389 -149 -677
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.7 47.0 15.2 0.1 2.0 21.0 9.9 13.4 6.8 2.2 8.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 180
: 44 54 16 . 11 27 22 25 26 15 33
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 43,885
: Positions
: 14,462 26,886 449 66 207 8,265 920 858 2,719 356 3,587
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 157 855 -55 66 4 512 -98 -176 45 72 -70
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.0 61.3 1.0 0.2 0.5 18.8 2.1 2.0 6.2 0.8 8.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 49
: 19 16 . . . 7 . . 6 . 12
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RICE
General Comments Prices were higher again Friday. Much of the buying seemed to be tied to price action in other markets, but there are reasons for Rice prices to go up on their own. Charts trends are up after the price action last week. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. The country admits losses to 1.0 million tons and the losses could be another half million tons higher after the typhoon last week. Vietnam and Chinese prices are high. Vietnamese sales defaults could total 520,000 tons due to high prices now. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and other crops as well. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although showers are possible today. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions, although showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal. Syria is allowing more time for responses to its purchase tender for 44,000 tons of Rice. Iraq has tendered to buy 30,000 tons of Rice.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1690, 1859, and 1864 November. Support is at 1648, 1640, and 1630 November, and resistance is at 1676, 1680, and 1685 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 19,391
: Positions
: 7,331 11,446 2,365 0 32 2,053 1,236 45 1,189 2,352 2,848
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 200 -464 -197 0 -62 -737 -114 28 186 -36 749
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 37.8 59.0 12.2 0.0 0.2 10.6 6.4 0.2 6.1 12.1 14.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 85
: 19 19 8 0 . 12 6 . 16 15 19
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher and Oats closed lower on a strong export sales report for Corn along with talk of more Chinese buying interest and speculative buying in Corn as well. The demand was welcome news for the bulls and could help support rallies this week. Some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work, although progress should slow down today as showers move through the region. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders. Weather forecasts point to slower harvest progress this week, but farmers are not selling much anyway and basis levels have been firming in the country. Oats were a little lower in consolidation trading on Friday.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 664 December. Support is at 622, 618, and 604 December, and resistance is at 648, 655, and 666 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 352, 368, ad 418 December. Support is at 337, 336, and 334 September, and resistance is at 346, 349, and 354 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,925,148
: Positions
: 407,541 692,406 264,487 66,440 132,434 220,141 58,824 190,059 76,326 56,948 456,333
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 2,340 -5,292 3,021 -1,470 4,239 2,193 12,210 4,063 -820 7,297 2,718
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 21.2 36.0 13.7 3.5 6.9 11.4 3.1 9.9 4.0 3.0 23.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 827
: 270 340 17 10 24 103 44 84 114 144 210
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 17,540
: Positions
: 8,732 11,933 1,877 0 0 1,922 1,880 0 587 213 1,584
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: -152 509 -63 0 0 98 -140 0 204 -50 -200
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 49.8 68.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 11.0 10.7 0.0 3.3 1.2 9.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 45
: 12 10 4 0 0 8 9 0 7 . 7
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 9,549
: Positions
: 6,996 7,038 73 735 108 594 52 163 431 190 715
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 395 439 55 -133 37 1 -10 0 -90 -23 292
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 73.3 73.7 0.8 7.7 1.1 6.2 0.5 1.7 4.5 2.0 7.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 31
: 17 19 . . . . . . 5 . 4
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SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculator buying toed to firm cash markets in the country and more positive chart patterns. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good, but farmers do not feel like selling. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible about Tuesday. Traders are looking for demand news, and ideas are that China is buying. However, USDA has not yet confirmed any big sales like it did for Corn last week. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen this week, so planting is started. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1245, 1226, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1278, 1282, and 1286 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 324.00, 317.00, and 315.00 December, and resistance is at 330.00, 337.00, and 342.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5610 and 5980 December. Support is at 5240, 5100, and 4960 December, with resistance at 5510, 5540, and 5590 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 870,469
: Positions
: 224,399 337,578 116,044 19,780 55,765 76,922 36,092 83,515 34,980 20,609 226,248
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 75 3,688 4,369 211 -4,166 -3,015 6,277 -5,834 4,810 -1,395 -12,759
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 25.8 38.8 13.3 2.3 6.4 8.8 4.1 9.6 4.0 2.4 26.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 564
: 108 160 21 7 26 63 60 77 92 121 182
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 373,211
: Positions
: 123,797 171,328 66,696 1,653 18,253 45,017 52,481 26,053 15,725 18,140 53,468
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: -2,980 -2,644 4,113 140 1,051 1,906 9,599 930 1,510 -3,706 -3,343
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.2 45.9 17.9 0.4 4.9 12.1 14.1 7.0 4.2 4.9 14.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 265
: 55 63 16 . 14 38 44 24 39 38 56
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 11, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 215,760
: Positions
: 89,679 93,888 15,812 1,861 3,093 24,581 34,809 20,319 6,580 10,887 19,414
: Changes from: October 4, 2011
: 3,798 -2,989 -1,313 306 1,478 -4,347 5,282 743 468 -1,413 -2,980
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 41.6 43.5 7.3 0.9 1.4 11.4 16.1 9.4 3.0 5.0 9.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 195
: 64 57 13 . 8 22 37 17 20 19 30
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on fund and exporter buying. Light selling from producers and elevators was noted late in the session. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress and good yields. Canola closed the week higher for the first time in over one month. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets and despite strong exports. Strong demand fundamentals supported the market early, but a down turn in financial markets on Europe hurt the rally at the end. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 719,575 tons, from 652,766 tons last month. ITK estimated exports at 725,456 tons, from 648,343 tons last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 546.00 and 590.00 November. Support is at 532.00, 530.00, and 525.00 November, with resistance at 544.00, 546.00, and 551.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2930 and 3030 January. Support is at 2860, 2845, and 2835 January, with resistance at 2930, 2955, and 2995 January.
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush-Oct 14
WINNIPEG (Dow Jones)-The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended October 12, 2011,
as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Oct 12 124,337 1,160,231 1,136,371 27,748 239,076 267,093
Oct 05 121,185 1,035,894 1,012,418 17,685 211,328 237,560
Sep 28 120,713 914,709 898,528 17,849 193,643 213,387
Sep 21 131,994 793,996 801,729 25,205 175,794 184,452
Sep 14 115,184 662,002 696,141 22,390 150,589 161,238
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 84.8% 77.0% 76.1%
Soybeans 61.9% 51.9% 58.0%
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
