10/17 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Oct. 17 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 10/16/11 10/09/11 10/16/10 5-year

COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 5 5 13 N/A
– Good 25 25 42 N/A
– Fair 29 28 30 N/A
– Poor 19 18 11 N/A
– Very Poor 22 24 4 N/A

CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 12 11 N/A N/A
– Good 41 42 N/A N/A
– Fair 28 28 N/A N/A
– Poor 12 12 N/A N/A
– Very Poor 7 7 N/A N/A

SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 5 5 N/A N/A
– Good 19 20 N/A N/A
– Fair 29 29 N/A N/A
– Poor 25 24 N/A N/A
– Very Poor 22 22 N/A N/A

PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 8 8 9 N/A
– Good 32 34 35 N/A
– Fair 37 38 34 N/A
– Poor 15 14 16 N/A
– Very Poor 8 6 6 N/A

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 5 N/A
– Good 27 26 35 N/A
– Fair 28 28 32 N/A
– Poor 18 19 18 N/A
– Very Poor 23 23 10 N/A

COTTON BOLLS OPEN 94 90 94 89
COTTON HARVESTED 34 26 38 29
CORN MATURE 94 89 100 93
CORN HARVESTED 47 33 66 41
SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES 95 90 98 96
SOYBEANS HARVESTED 69 51 81 61
RICE HARVESTED 82 74 88 86
WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 73 59 80 77
WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 44 28 50 51
SORGHUM COLORING 95 91 100 97
SORGHUM MATURE 75 63 93 80
SORGHUM HARVESTED 44 37 60 49
PEANUTS HARVESTED 48 33 50 42
SUGARBEETS HARVESTED 45 16 70 59
SUNFLOWERS HARVESTED 23 8 27 20

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher on weather worries for the Great Plains. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains. Traders will now pay more attention to the southern Great Plains as that is where most of the Wheat is and it is too dry there. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together, Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 620, 605, and 602 December, with resistance at 640, 650, and 655 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 703, 688, and 684 December, with resistance at 720, 730, and 737 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 880, 871, and 862 December, and resistance is at 911, 923, and 934 December.

RICE
General Comments Prices were higher again for much of the day yesterday before bowing to a stronger US Dollar and European economic fears to close a little lower. Charts trends are up after the price action last week. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. The country admits losses to 1.0 million tons and the losses could be another half million tons higher after the typhoon last week. Vietnam and Chinese prices are high. Vietnamese sales defaults could total 520,000 tons due to high prices now. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and other crops as well. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although showers are possible today. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions, although showers are possible tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1690, 1859, and 1864 November. Support is at 1648, 1640, and 1630 November, and resistance is at 1676, 1680, and 1685 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower on harvest progress and a strong US Dollar caused by European economic worries. Farmers are starting to wrap up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work, although progress should slow down today as showers move through the region. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders. Weather forecasts point to slower harvest progress this week, but farmers are not selling much anyway and basis levels have been firming in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 664 December. Support is at 622, 618, and 604 December, and resistance is at 648, 655, and 666 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 337, 336, and 334 September, and resistance is at 347, 349, and 354 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on harvest progress and a strong US Dollar caused by European economic worries. Farmers are starting to wrap up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good, but farmers do not feel like selling. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible about Tuesday. Traders are looking for demand news, and ideas are that China is buying. However, USDA has not yet confirmed any big sales like it did for Corn last week. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen this week, so planting is started. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1245, 1226, and 1210 November, and resistance is at 1278, 1282, and 1286 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 317.00, 315.00, and 312.00 December, and resistance is at 330.00, 337.00, and 342.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 5610 and 5980 December. Support is at 5240, 5100, and 4960 December, with resistance at 5390, 5510, and 5540 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago. Light selling from producers and elevators was noted late in the session. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress and good yields. Canola closed the week higher for the first time in over one month. Palm Oil was lower today again on outside markets and despite strong exports. A down turn in financial markets based on Europe and China and weakening economic data in the latter country hurt futures here.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 532.00, 530.00, and 525.00 November, with resistance at 542.00, 544.00, and 546.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2880, 2845, and 2835 January, with resistance at 2930, 2955, and 2995 January.

Midwest Weather: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.

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