DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 20
For the week ended Oct 13, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1.
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 399.4 0.0 15550.8 18847.8 4577.2 80.6
corn 1762.6 83.2 20130.8 19167.2 15829.2 827.8
soybeans 594.7 0.0 18084.6 25319.1 15084.2 40.0
soymeal 348.9 0.5 2547.9 2748.7 2328.2 45.8
soyoil 6.1 0.0 81.5 674.1 74.5 0.0
upland cotton 59.3 0.0 6744.1 10312.0 5737.7 226.3
pima cotton 0.8 0.0 371.4 242.6 358.3 5.2
sorghum 64.9 0.0 515.6 1109.8 322.6 0.0
barley 0.2 0.0 81.5 96.8 0.5 0.0
rice 45.6 0.0 990.1 1445.9 427.0 0.3
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower on fears about demand and despite more weather worries for the Great Plains. Futures traded higher much of the session, only to turn lower with weakness in Corn and the Soy complex and as the Dollar moved from lower to unchanged on the day. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains. Traders will now pay more attention to the southern Great Plains as that is where most of the Wheat is and it is too dry there. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. But, demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together, Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal this week and below normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 613, 605, and 601 December, with resistance at 633, 638, and 640 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 702, 688, and 684 December, with resistance at 722, 730, and 737 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 896, 880, and 871 December, and resistance is at 923, 934, and 937 December.
RICE
General Comments Prices were higher as traders see no offers in the cash market and as traders start to notice the weather problems in Asia. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. The country admits losses to 1.0 million tons and the losses could be another half million tons higher after the typhoon last week. Vietnam and Chinese prices are high. Vietnamese sales defaults could total 520,000 tons due to high prices now and high waters in southern parts of the country. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and other crops as well, with the Rice Association there now estimating losses at 3.5 million tons of Paddy. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although harvest is now about over. Second crop Rice is being harvested near the Gulf Coast, but the yield reports there are not very strong. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1630, 1620, and 1614 November, with resistance at 1659, 1676, and 1680 November.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 19
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates.
—World Price— MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.88 15.63 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 23.56 15.99 0.00
Brokens 16.90 — —
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower on harvest progress and the European economic worries. Prices traded higher much of the session, but moved lower when the Soy complex got weak and the US Dollar recovered from the losses on the day. Farmers are starting to wrap up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Harvest should be very active in western areas, and will become more active in the east once the rains move out and the fields dry down. Some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Ethanol producers were said to be the strongest bidders, and ethanol data released yesterday points to very strong demand from this sector for Corn. Weather forecasts point to slower harvest progress this week, but farmers are not selling much anyway and basis levels have been firming in the country. The lack of farmer selling has supported bull spreads.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 664 December. Support is at 630, 622, and 618 December, and resistance is at 648, 651, and 655 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 334, and 330 September, and resistance is at 344, 347, and 349 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on harvest progress and European economic worries. Much of the selling came late in the session, although the Soy complex was the weakest component of the grains trade all day. Lower than expected GDP data from . Farmers are starting to wrap up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible about Tuesday. Traders are looking for demand news, and ideas are that China is buying. However, USDA has not yet confirmed any big sales like it did for Corn last week. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains were seen in the last couple of weeks, so planting is active.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1198 November. Support is at 1210, 1206, and 1193 November, and resistance is at 1259, 1278, and 1282 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 317.00, 315.00, and 312.00 December, and resistance is at 324.00, 327.00, and 330.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5060, 4880, and 4660 December. Support is at 5100, 4960, and 4920 December, with resistance at 5190, 5300, and 5390 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and on ideas of less demand. Light selling from producers and elevators provided the best reasons to buy. Elevator selling got bigger near the close. Processors and exporters were the best buyers, but showed less interest as Chicago prices moved lower. Processors are less interested anyway due to relatively poor crush margins. Palm Oil was higher today on ideas that Europe is starting to take steps to resolve the crisis there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 524.00, 514.00, and 482.00 November. Support is at 525.00, 522.00, and 518.00 November, with resistance at 533.00, 539.00, and 542.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2850, 2810, and 2760 January, with resistance at 2930, 2950, and 2995 January.
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry in the west, one more day of rain in the east, then dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
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