WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday, with Chicago and Kansas City feeling the effects of greater than expected stocks of Wheat and Corn in the US, but with Minneapolis finding more support as Spring Wheat production was less than expected and on on ideas that high protein Wheat was going to be hard to find. Traders monitored the continued poor weather in the US Great Plains, but the world economic scene proved just as important and the news hurt commodities in general Friday. There was more talk of econimic contraction in China to go with the fears of economic problems in Europe. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business keep some buyers away from futures here. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn, although this demand did not seem to turn up in the USDA reports. In fact, the reports implied that there was little feed use seen in the lastquarter. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Charts show that Wheat trends are down in Kansas City and Chicago. Minneapolis charts are up.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, and turn very warm this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal this week and much above normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 583 and 538 December. Support is at 602, 591, and 582 December, with resistance at 615, 624, and 632 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 680 and 640 December. Support is at 698, 696, and 690 December, with resistance at 715, 720, and 737 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 933 and 1020 December. Support is at 880, 871, and 863 December, and resistance is at 904, 911, and 923 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 513,744
: Positions
: 65,288 157,731 179,911 16,335 33,887 54,340 90,555 53,441 15,560 29,402 73,640
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 9,323 -442 378 -151 -970 -2,083 9,223 -665 274 637 85
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 12.7 30.7 35.0 3.2 6.6 10.6 17.6 10.4 3.0 5.7 14.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 418
: 77 89 20 9 25 55 80 59 62 82 105
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 166,400
: Positions
: 29,524 88,297 22,250 59 2,457 51,273 13,045 18,156 9,932 4,340 10,950
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 1,778 -5,227 -2,121 59 343 -1,315 3,924 1,439 297 -1,283 514
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 17.7 53.1 13.4 0.0 1.5 30.8 7.8 10.9 6.0 2.6 6.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 178
: 43 61 13 . 8 34 19 25 17 17 25
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 44,424
: Positions
: 14,361 25,915 506 0 166 8,280 840 1,338 2,513 573 4,619
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 1,496 1,160 -23 0 -1 -592 85 -77 52 53 66
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 32.3 58.3 1.1 0.0 0.4 18.6 1.9 3.0 5.7 1.3 10.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56
: 20 18 . 0 . 7 . 4 9 4 13
————————————————————————————————————–
RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower again Friday on speculative selling tied to weak world economies. The reports released by USDA on Friday showed les than expected stocks, and had been considered bullish for prices, but in the end Rice succumbed to the same selling pressure seen in most commodities futures markets. A couple of big typhoons hit Philippines last week and most likely damaged Rice. The storms also moved into Vietnam and southern China. Philippines had talked about sharp reduction in imports due to strong domestic production potential and no big storms, but this talk might need to be modified now. Vietnam has also had flooding rains that could hurt crops there, and prices are near three year highs. Chinese prices are already sky high. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1555 and 1505 November. Support is at 1590, 1582, and 1567 November, and resistance is at 1620, 1630, and 1640 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 18,494
: Positions
: 5,840 12,171 3,003 0 141 3,279 1,321 3 877 2,340 1,493
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 1,531 -890 -327 0 106 -974 134 3 -168 108 424
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 31.6 65.8 16.2 0.0 0.8 17.7 7.1 0.0 4.7 12.7 8.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 83
: 19 17 9 0 . 15 7 . 10 18 15
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed sharply lower to limit down and Oats closed lower yesterday on negative world economic developments and the USDA reports that found much higher than expected stocks on September 1. The reports implied much less domestic use than expected, especially on the feed side. In fact, the higher Corn and Wheat stocks implied that cattle and hogs were not eating much of anything. Yield reports continue to be higher than expected from the early harvest, although some producers think that yield reports will move lower as the harvest progresses. Expectations of much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week also hurt Corn prices. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong. The crops harvested now appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses into crops more likely to have been affected by the adverse Summer weather, but for now the market is hearing stronger than expected yield reports. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 618 December. Support is at 593, 576, and 572 December, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 646 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 326, 324, and 321 September, and resistance is at 334, 336, and 337 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,844,339
: Positions
: 362,457 705,573 273,130 69,996 121,675 247,332 43,463 175,063 82,679 43,632 401,324
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 31,626 -33,350 -14,378 -58 1,539 -33,834 12,274 -8,076 -2,395 -4,794 -18,328
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.7 38.3 14.8 3.8 6.6 13.4 2.4 9.5 4.5 2.4 21.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 833
: 243 348 17 11 25 105 44 81 131 129 205
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 16,722
: Positions
: 7,856 11,176 1,995 0 0 2,118 1,819 0 385 259 1,624
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 1,353 43 -14 0 0 -24 599 0 7 115 -71
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 47.0 66.8 11.9 0.0 0.0 12.7 10.9 0.0 2.3 1.6 9.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 43
: 11 9 4 0 0 9 6 0 7 4 7
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 9,165
: Positions
: 6,884 6,412 1 815 97 507 71 154 299 340 766
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: -633 -429 1 83 7 0 0 25 -4 -524 30
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 75.1 70.0 0.0 8.9 1.1 5.5 0.8 1.7 3.3 3.7 8.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 33
: 19 21 . . . . . . . . .
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower Friday on negative economic news from China and Europe and in sympathy with the higher than expected stocks seen for Corn and Wheat by USDA. The Soybeans stocks were a little less than expected, but the difference between the actual and the expected was not enough to offset the bearish attitudes for the grains. Ideas of higher than expected yields from the harvest so far and fears of poor demand created more selling interest. Weather should turn drier this week, and good progress should expand. Areas to the west are warmer and dry, and some good progress is possible. Warm and dry weather is now expected for all Corn Belt areas this week. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed, but in general are said to be better than expected. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are firm in the country as farmers are not selling much.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of1084 and 857 November. Support is at 1167, 1149, and 1144 November, and resistance is at 1206, 1210, and 1226 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 306.00, 304.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 317.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4880 and 4660 December. Support is at 5000, 4925, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5100, 5240, and 5310 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 823,913
: Positions
: 203,174 348,566 124,415 19,930 47,105 96,049 26,839 79,078 26,786 20,905 190,001
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 35,353 -30,527 -11,112 -2,368 2,980 -32,027 14,554 10,654 -619 -5,554 11,902
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 24.7 42.3 15.1 2.4 5.7 11.7 3.3 9.6 3.3 2.5 23.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 572
: 101 174 19 8 23 74 56 79 104 104 173
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 343,155
: Positions
: 116,556 175,030 64,412 1,386 12,848 46,227 33,834 19,677 13,898 24,759 41,570
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 21,384 -17,646 -461 0 -456 -7,480 13,562 -319 -2,635 4,489 1,275
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 34.0 51.0 18.8 0.4 3.7 13.5 9.9 5.7 4.1 7.2 12.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 245
: 57 60 16 . 13 42 39 22 23 44 47
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 27, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 204,395
: Positions
: 81,233 100,278 17,194 5,253 1,509 33,214 22,867 14,821 5,113 11,708 18,516
: Changes from: September 20, 2011
: 15,128 -11,776 1,228 -422 592 -12,269 3,129 3,519 -1,304 5,083 -386
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 39.7 49.1 8.4 2.6 0.7 16.2 11.2 7.3 2.5 5.7 9.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 192
: 63 61 11 . 6 26 30 15 19 22 32
————————————————————————————————————–
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago. Moderate selling from producers and elevators was noted, but funds and speculators were the best sellers. The US approved Canola Oil use for bio fuels, and now blenders can get tax credits for its use. This helped support futures Friday, as did a weaker Canadian Dollar. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets and general economic gloom.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 522.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 530.00, 532.00, and 542.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2900, 2850, and 2830 December, with resistance at 2950, 3000, and 3015 December.
DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Sep 30
WINNIPEG (Dow Jones)–The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended September 28, 2011,
as follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative Cumulative
Week 2011/12 2010/11 2011/12 2010/11
Ended Canola (Aug/Jul) Sybns (Aug/Jul)
Sep 28 120,713 914,709 898,528 17,849 193,643 213,387
Sep 21 131,994 793,996 801,729 25,205 175,794 184,452
Sep 14 115,184 662,002 696,141 22,390 150,589 161,238
Sep 07 111,669 546,818 587,415 22,472 128,199 132,011
Aug 31 73,560 435,149 469,128 19,611 105,727 102,732
Crush Capacity Utilization
This Week Year-to-Date Year Ago
Canola 82.3% 74.2% 73.6%
Soybeans 39.8% 51.4% 56.7%
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry in all areas. Temperatures will average near normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
Free-Subscribe to receive Daily Newsletters via Email
