10/03 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA WASHINGTON, Oct. 03 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
Week ended 10/02/11 09/25/11 10/02/10 5-year
COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 13 N/A
– Good 25 25 43 N/A
– Fair 29 27 30 N/A
– Poor 19 19 10 N/A
– Very Poor 23 25 4 N/A
CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 11 11 20 N/A
– Good 41 41 46 N/A
– Fair 28 28 21 N/A
– Poor 13 13 9 N/A
– Very Poor 7 7 4 N/A
SOYBEANS CONDITION
– Excellent 11 10 18 N/A
– Good 43 43 46 N/A
– Fair 29 29 24 N/A
– Poor 12 13 9 N/A
– Very Poor 5 5 3 N/A
SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 9 N/A
– Good 20 20 51 N/A
– Fair 31 31 29 N/A
– Poor 24 24 9 N/A
– Very Poor 21 21 2 N/A
PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 8 7 8 N/A
– Good 31 31 40 N/A
– Fair 38 40 33 N/A
– Poor 16 16 13 N/A
– Very Poor 7 6 6 N/A
PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 4 5 7 N/A
– Good 27 26 37 N/A
– Fair 26 27 32 N/A
– Poor 19 19 16 N/A
– Very Poor 24 23 8 N/A
COTTON BOLLS OPEN 84 76 86 75
COTTON HARVESTED 16 13 23 18
CORN MATURE 79 63 92 78
CORN HARVESTED 21 15 37 23
SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES 76 58 87 83
SOYBEANS HARVESTED 19 5 34 25
RICE HARVESTED 65 57 79 71
WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 42 26 52 53
WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 16 6 21 23
SUGARBEETS HARVESTED 13 5 27 21
SUNFLOWERS HARVESTED 4 NA 3 5
SORGHUM COLORING 86 79 98 92
SORGHUM MATURE 54 44 74 62
SORGHUM HARVESTED 30 26 38 37
PEANUTS HARVESTED 19 9 23 17
DJ Brazil’s September Agricultural Export Data – Trade Ministry SAO PAULO (Dow Jones)–The following is Brazil’s key monthly agricultural export data for September, published Monday by the Foreign Trade Ministry. All of the agricultural commodities are measured in metric tons. The exceptions are coffee, which is measured in 60-kilogram bags, and ethanol, which is measured in liters.
September ’11 August’11 September’10
Coffee (60-kilo bags) 2.66 mln 2.59 mln 2.96 mln
Soybeans 2.80 mln 3.69 mln 2.01 mln
Soymeal 1.27 mln 1.20 mln 1.47 mln
Soyoil 185,500 122,100 109,400
FCOJ 164,100 189,400 202,600
Sugar raw 2.32 mln 2.67 mln 2.38 mln
Sugar white 479,700 632,300 969,700
Ethanol (Liters) 174.3 mln 298 mln 184.9 mln
Corn 1.65 mln 1.52 mln 1.93 mln
Brazil is the world’s No.1 exporter of coffee, sugar and orange juice. The country is also world’s No.2 soybean producer after the U.S.
DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Oct 3
For the week ending Sep 29, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Sep 29 Sep 22 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 600.9 591.2 849.9 10,725.9 10,508.3
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.2 0.3 0.0 2.9 0.5
Barley 0.3 0.1 24.9 116.7 72.2
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9
Corn 722.5 883.5 964.7 2,817.8 4,343.9
Sorghum 86.4 35.7 95.5 245.2 325.2
Soybeans 288.5 209.9 723.0 1,168.8 1,885.9
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 1,698.8 1,720.7 2,658.0 15,077.4 17,136.9
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday, with Chicago and Kansas City rallying on ideas those markets were oversold, but with Minneapolis a little lower despite ideas that high protein Wheat was going to be hard to find. Traders monitored the continued poor weather in the US Great Plains, but the world economic scene proved just as important and the news hurt commodities in general. There was more talk of econimic contraction in China to go with the fears of economic problems in Europe. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business keep some buyers away from futures here. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week, although some western areas could see some showers this weekend. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn, although this demand did not seem to turn up in the USDA reports. In fact, the reports implied that there was little feed use seen in the lastquarter. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Charts show that Wheat trends are down in Kansas City and Chicago. Minneapolis charts are up.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but some showers are possible in western sections this weekend. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 583 and 538 December. Support is at 602, 597, and 591 December, with resistance at 624, 632, and 650 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 680 and 640 December. Support is at 695, 690, and 687 December, with resistance at 715, 720, and 737 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 933 and 1020 December. Support is at 871, 863, and 850 December, and resistance is at 896, 904, and 911 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were a little higher yesterday despite speculative selling tied to weak world economies. A couple of big typhoons hit Philippines last week and most likely damaged about 450,000 tons of Rice. Vietnam has also had flooding rains that could hurt crops there, and prices are near three year highs. Chinese prices are already sky high. More tropical systems appear on the horizon. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near normal. India said it had plenty of Rice to sell Indonesia after Thailand backed out of a 300,000 tons sale last week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1555 and 1505 November. Support is at 1580, 1567, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1620, 1630, and 1640 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed and Oats closed mostly a little higher yesterday on ideas that the market was oversold and despite negative world economic developments. Traders were still talking about the accuracy of the USDA reports that were released Friday morning. The USDA reports that found much higher than expected stocks on September 1. The reports implied much less domestic use than expected, especially on the feed side. In fact, the higher Corn and Wheat stocks implied that cattle and hogs were not eating much of anything. Yield reports continue to be higher than expected from the early harvest, although some producers think that yield reports will move lower as the harvest progresses. Expectations of much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week also hurt Corn prices. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong. The crops harvested now appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses into crops more likely to have been affected by the adverse Summer weather, but for now the market is hearing stronger than expected yield reports. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. FC Stone now estimates Corn production at 12.553 billion bushels and yields at 148.7 bushels per acre.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 618 December. Support is at 576, 572, and 545 December, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 646 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 324, 321, and 316 September, and resistance is at 334, 336, and 337 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower yesterday on negative economic news from China and Europe and in sympathy with the higher US Dollar. Reports of good yields in the country also hurt futures, and harvest progress should be rapid this week due to dry and warm weather. Traders are looking for demand news. The export side of the market seems quiet, but reports indicated that processors were stepping up buying interest. Western areas will continue to move ahead with harvest, and eastern areas can try to catch up this week. Basis levels are weak in the country, but farmers are not selling much. A private company estimated Brazils new Soybean crop production at 75.2 million tons as the planting continues. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains are expected this week, so planting should really ramp up. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. FC Stone now estimates US Soybeans production at 3.157 billion bushels and yields at 42.8 bushels per acre.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of1084 and 857 November. Support is at 1167, 1162, and 1149 November, and resistance is at 1206, 1210, and 1226 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 304.00, 303.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 317.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 4880 and 4660 December. Support is at 4960, 4925, and 4900 December, with resistance at 5100, 5240, and 5310 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago, but rallied to close on a firm note ahead of the StasCan production report that came out this morning. Moderate selling from producers and elevators was noted. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets and general economic gloom. India sid it had no plans to raise taxes on Palm Oil imports due to inflation problems there.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 522.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 530.00, 532.00, and 542.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2900, 2850, and 2830 December, with resistance at 2950, 3000, and 3015 December.
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry in all areas. Temperatures will average above normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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