DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 6
For the week ended Sep 29, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1.
wk’s net chg total in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 431.2 0.0 14667.8 17896.7 4444.6 63.6
corn 1289.5 1.8 17109.2 18067.3 14282.1 659.3
soybeans 701.8 40.0 16817.5 22224.0 15588.8 40.0
soymeal -5.0 285.5 7800.3 9699.2 350.1 1640.3
soyoil -0.1 0.2 1354.0 1492.4 29.0 38.9
upland cotton 88.6 2.2 6621.8 9263.9 5776.4 181.7
pima cotton -0.1 4.4 370.7 237.9 360.0 5.2
sorghum 30.8 0.0 419.4 925.0 260.6 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 81.3 95.2 0.4 0.0
rice 83.1 0.0 881.1 1268.4 444.5 0.3
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher on ideas the market was very oversold. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week, although some western areas could see some showers this weekend. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn, although this demand did not seem to turn up in the USDA reports. In fact, the reports implied that there was little feed use seen in the lastquarter. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Wheat lost to Corn yesterday. Charts show that Wheat trends are down in Kansas City and Chicago. Minneapolis charts are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but some showers are possible in western sections this weekend. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 623, 615, and 608 December, with resistance at 632, 650, and 655 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 690, 678, and 675 December, with resistance at 715, 720, and 737 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 862, 850, and 840 December, and resistance is at 880, 890, and 896 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were higher yesterday on speculative buying. Charts show that futures did not break any new ground in the price action yesterday, and the action in financial markets after the close implied that prices could trade higher again today. Rice can trade higher on the fundamentals as well. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and coming storms. Vietnam has also had flooding rains that could hurt crops there, and prices are near three year highs. Chinese prices are already sky high. More tropical systems appear on the horizon. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters or any huge yields, either. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to weak in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak. South American markets appear stable.
Overnight News: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1580, 1567, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1610, 1620, and 1630 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday on ideas the market was oversold. Yield reports continue to be higher than expected from the early harvest, although some yield reports are moving lower as the harvest progresses. Much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for this week has helped speed the work. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Basis levels are steady in the country.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 618 and 643 December. Support is at 594, 576, and 572 December, and resistance is at 612, 623, and 646 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 324, 321, and 316 September, and resistance is at 330, 334, and 336 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher yesterday on ides the market is oversold. Reports of good yields in the country hurt futures, and harvest progress is rapid this week due to dry and warm weather. Traders are looking for demand news. The export side of the market seems quiet, but reports indicated that processors were stepping up buying interest. Western areas will continue to move ahead with harvest, and eastern areas can try to catch up this week. Basis levels are weak in the country, but farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are starting to plant Soybeans in the Center West area this week. It has been too dry in center west areas, but rains are expected this week, so planting should really ramp up. However, there might be some losses in some areas from the delayed planting.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of1084 and 857 November. Support is at 1152, 1149, and 1144 November, and resistance is at 1181, 1206, and 1210 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 301.00, 299.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 312.00, 315.00, and 317.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4880 and 4660 December. Support is at 4890, 4850, and 4760 December, with resistance at 5000, 5100, and 5240 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago and the grains markets, but held well as StatsCan showed less than expected production. Canola production in Canada was estimated at 12.928 million tons, from trade estimates of 13.8 million tons. Moderate selling from producers and elevators was noted. Processors and exporters were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was higher today on outside markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 502.00 and 482.00 November. Support is at 518.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 530.00, 532.00, and 542.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2780 and 2600 December. Support is at 2770, 2740, and 2710 December, with resistance at 2830, 2850, and 2865 December.
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry in all areas. Temperatures will average above normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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