11/10 08:23a CST DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 10
For the week ended Nov 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1.
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 298.4 0.0 16486.2 20849.7 4151.1 80.6
corn 251.9 0.0 21341.4 20753.2 14991.4 853.0
soybeans 604.0 2.8 19125.8 29740.2 12560.9 69.8
soymeal 291.4 4.4 3034.1 3433.5 2447.8 50.3
soyoil 21.7 0.0 108.1 653.2 76.5 0.0
upland cotton 998.0 24.9 8219.2 11569.1 6940.4 330.1
pima cotton 1.9 0.0 378.8 285.0 362.2 5.2
sorghum 5.2 0.0 531.7 1263.5 236.3 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 82.1 96.8 0.6 0.0
rice 45.1 0.0 1182.3 1715.7 468.4 0.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower as the US Dollar rallied sharply in response to more fears about the European economic mess. It was a big volume day. The USDA reports were considered neutral to positive, but were mostly ignored as traders concentrated on news from across the pond. Only Minneapolis Wheat was able to rally as USDA cut the production estimate for Spring Wheat. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle due to less than optimal rains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. However, there are increasing reports of weather problems for new crop Wheat in Ukraine and Russia. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible today. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal much of the week and near to above normal by this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Russia bought a total of 240,000 tons of Wheat from Ukraine and Russia.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 633, 630, and 620 December, with resistance at 657, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 712, 702, and 688 December, with resistance at 740, 747, and 757 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 936, 916, and 903 December, and resistance is at 957, 962, and 968 December.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were near lower yesterday in liquidation trading. The USDA reports were considered neutral to the trade, but the extreme strength in the US Dollar due to the European economic crisis proved to be the moving force. The MF Global bankruptcy is still hanging over the Rice market as well as many of the bigger accounts and traders used the firm for clearing trades. USDA cut world production somewhat, but some traders were disappointed that production in much of Southeast Asia was not cut more after the recent flooding in many countries there. The reports appeared to contradict somewhat the reports on the ground that implied bigger losses. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1530, 1524, and 1499 January, with resistance at 1600, 1609, and 1631 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower as traders worried about the European mess and did not pay much attention to the USDA reports. USDA cut production and ending stocks estimates for this year. The reports were roughly in line with expectations, but initial calls were for prices to open higher. The sharp rally in the US Dollar killed off all rally hopes yesterday. Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after the Soybeans are done. Harvest should be slow after some big rains moved through the Midwest over the last couple of days. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady, but there have been some reports of increased farm selling this week. Export demand is not strong and there is talk of demand being lost to Ukraine now.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 646, 643, and 632 December, and resistance is at 657, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 321, 320, and 313 September, and resistance is at 331, 338, and 340 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower as traders reacted to the USDA reports and the extreme strength in the US Dollar. USDA cut production estimates yesterday, but cut demand estimates more to show increased ending stocks estimates for the coming year. The US Dollar rallied sharply as traders around the world continued to e bothered about the economic mess in Europe. Farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible tomorrow. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are steady in the country, and farmers might have increased sales before the USDA reports. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas under mostly good weather. Planting is active in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China imported 3.81 million tons of Soybeans in October, from 4.13 million tons in September.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1182, 1165, and 1164 January, and resistance is at 1200, 1218, and 1224 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 297.00 December. Support is at 301.00, 292.00, and 291.00 December, and resistance is at 310.00, 313.00, and 317.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5100, 5080, and 5060 December, with resistance at 5200, 5240, and 5250 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on price action in Chicago, although the weakness in the Canadian Dollar support prices. It was a low volume trade as the MF Global situation impacted the market and kept traders from doing some things. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. Palm Oil was higher today on bullish MPOB data. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia due to poor weather supported the market. SGS estimated that exports so far this month are 457,696 tons, from 486,882 tons last month. ITS said that exports are now 467,600 tons this month, from 496,918 tons last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 519.00, 515.00, and 514.00 November, with resistance at 526.00, 533.00, and 539.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 3025, 2990, and 2960 January, with resistance at 3070, 3090, and 3140 January.

11/09 22:54 CST Malaysia’s Oct palm oil stocks down 1.6 pct-MPOB
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 10 (Reuters) – Malaysia’s November palm oil stocks fell
1.6 percent to 2,100,415 tonnes from a revised 2,133,516 tonnes in September,
industry regulator Malaysian Palm Oil Board said on Thursday.
November’s fall missed market expectations that stocks in the world’s No.2
palm oil producer likely rose 6.1 percent to 2.25 million tonnes. [PALM/POLL]
The following is a breakdown of Malaysian Palm Oil Board
figures and Reuters estimates for October:
(volumes in tonnes)
October 2011 October poll October 2010 September 2011
Output 1,908,422 1,900,000 1,636,486 1,869,175
Stocks 2,100,415 2,250,000 1,796,036 2,133,516
Exports 1,840,405 1,684,077 1,460,663 1,545,997
Imports* 40,225 60,000 72,406 69,857
* Refers to Malaysian imports of mostly Indonesian crude palm oil

Midwest Weather: Dry into the weekend, showers are possible again by early next week. Temperatures will average below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal this weekend and early next week.

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