WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower in response to poor weekly export sales more fears about the European economic mess. Traders are also concerned that some MF Global customers were selling or being forced to sell positions and this could be happening as many traders do not want to send more margin. Most farmers are still planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle due to less than optimal rains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. However, there are increasing reports of weather problems for new crop Wheat in Ukraine and Russia. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible today. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal much of the week and near to above normal by this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are weaker for Soft Red Winter Wheat and firm for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 620, 618, and 612 December, with resistance at 630, 633, and 644 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 692, 678, and 645 December. Support is at 688, 684, and 678 December, with resistance at 702, 712, and 725 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 945, 942, and 936 December, and resistance is at 957, 962, and 968 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were near lower again yesterday in liquidation trading. The market has been in a free fall since the MF Global bankruptcy was announced, and it seems that many market participants on all sides had positions in Rice there. Positions were moved, but money was not, and many traders might be choosing to liquidate instead of send new margins to the new clearing firm. The USDA export sales report was not strong for any grains including Rice and probably added to the selling pressure. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady. It is possible that buying could appear today as some with short positions try to get out of the market. Buy side users of futures should consider pricing some of their needs at current levels.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1513, 1499, and 1472 January, with resistance at 1550, 1582, and 1600 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on poor weekly export sales and the European mess and did not pay much attention to the USDA reports. Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after the Soybeans are done. Harvest should be slow after some big rains moved through the Midwest over the last couple of days. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is strong. Export demand is not strong and there is talk of demand being lost to Ukraine now.
Overnight News: Basis was firm at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 643, 632, and 630 December, and resistance is at 666, 669, and 677 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 and 311 December. Support is at 320, 313, and 311 September, and resistance is at 326, 328, and 331 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower as traders reacted to the USDA reports showing weaker than expected export sales and to the fears about the European economic problems. Farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible tomorrow. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are steady in the country, and farmers might have increased sales before the USDA reports. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas under mostly good weather. Planting is active in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are mixed at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady to firm.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed top down with objectives of 1156 January. Support is at 1165, 1164, and 1159 January, and resistance is at 1182, 1200, and 1218 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 297.00 December. Support is at 292.00, 291.00, and 288.00 December, and resistance is at 306.00, 310.00, and 313.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5000, 4960, and 4920 December, with resistance at 5100, 5160, and 5200 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was sharply lower on price action in Chicago. Speculators were the best sellers, and stops were hit on the way down. The market will be closed today for a long weekend. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. Palm Oil was higher today on bullish MPOB data. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia due to poor weather supported the market. SGS estimated that exports so far this month are 457,696 tons, from 486,882 tons last month. ITS said that exports are now 467,600 tons this month, from 496,918 tons last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 506.00 and 491.00 January. Support is at 508.00, 504.00, and 502.00 November, with resistance at 519.00, 526.00, and 533.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3270 and 3520 January. Support is at 3000, 2990, and 2960 January, with resistance at 3140, 3160, and 3175 January.
Midwest Weather: Dry into the weekend, showers are possible again by early next week. Temperatures will average below normal today, then near to above normal this weekend and early next week.
Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322