Morning Grains 11/14/11

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed mixed on Friday as Chicago moved lower on demand concerns and as Kansas City and Minneapolis held strong due to tight supplies of higher protein Wheat. More fears about the European economic mess despite positive developments from Italy and concern that some MF Global customers were selling or being forced to sell positions were negative. Most farmers are still planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle due to less than optimal rains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. However, there are increasing reports of weather problems for new crop Wheat in Ukraine and Russia. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed, but weak for now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible today. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal much of the week and near to above normal by this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are firm for Soft Red Winter Wheat and unchanged to weaker for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Informa now estimates Wheat planted area at 57.0 million acres for 2012, unchanged from its last estmate.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 630, 618, and 613 December. Support is at 610, 604, and 506 December, with resistance at 630, 633, and 634 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 678, 645, and 640 December. Support is at 688, 684, and 678 December, with resistance at 712, 725, and 730 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 1020 December. Support is at 928, 916, and 903 December, and resistance is at 945, 950, and 957 December.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were a little lower Friday in liquidation trading. The market remains in a free fall since the MF Global bankruptcy was announced, and it seems that many market participants on all sides had positions in Rice there. Positions were moved, but money was not, and many traders might still be choosing to liquidate instead of send new margins to the new clearing firm. Much of that selling should have been completed last week. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady. It is possible that buying could appear today as some with short positions try to get out of the market. Buy side users of futures should consider pricing some of their needs at current levels.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1512, 1499, and 1472 January, with resistance at 1530, 1550, and 1582 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on ideas of weak demand and the European MF Global messes. Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after the Soybeans are done. Harvest should be slow after some big rains moved through the Midwest over the last couple of days. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is strong. Export demand is not strong and there is talk of demand being lost to Ukraine now.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Informa now estimates 2012 Corn planted area at 94.0 million acres, from 93.1 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 630, 618, and 613 December. Support is at 632, 630, and 622 December, and resistance is at 652, 660, and 666 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 311 December. Support is at 313, 311, and 306 September, and resistance is at 324, 326, and 328 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on ideas of increasing demand and a weaker US Dollar. Farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible tomorrow. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are steady in the country, and farmers might have increased sales before the USDA reports. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas under mostly good weather. Planting is active in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Informa now estimates 2012 Soybeans planted area t 76.1 million acres, from 77.0 million last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1156 January. Support is at 1165, 1164, and 1159 January, and resistance is at 1182, 1200, and 1218 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 297.00 December. Support is at 292.00, 291.00, and 288.00 December, and resistance is at 301.00, 306.00, and 310.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4880 and 4660 December. Support is at 5000, 4960, and 4920 December, with resistance at 5100, 5160, and 5200 December.

—————–|———–|———–|———–
Long | Short |Spreads | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short
—————————————————–
(CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS) OPEN INTEREST: 386,447
COMMITMENTS
53,111 69,727 82,863 221,296 200,681 357,271 353,271 29,176 33,176
CHANGES FROM 10/25/11 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 5,970)
-1,151 1,112 3,381 825 2,728 3,055 7,221 2,916 -1,251
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADER
13.7 18.0 21.4 57.3 51.9 92.5 91.4 7.5 8.6
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 271)
70 82 93 74 76 201 221

DJ NOPA Oct Soybean Crush Breakdown-Nov 14
NOPA says soybean crush was 141.179 million bushels for October,
up 30.866 million bushels from the previous month.
Soybeans in thousand bushels, soymeal in short tons, soyoil
in thousand pounds, yield in pounds per bushel. Cumulative crush
figures which began October 1, 2011, are estimated due to rounding
calculated by Dow Jones. r-revised. (a)-capacity figures are
updated quarterly. Source: National Oilseed Processors Association.

————–TOTAL————-

Oct 11 Sep 11 Oct 10
Soybeans crushed 141,179 110,313 151,864
Soymeal produced 3,362,935 2,639,998 3,598,934
Soymeal yield 47.64 47.86 47.40
Soymeal exports 578,146 300,347 641,187
Soyoil produced 1,632,282 1,290,933 1,738,441
Soyoil yield 11.56 11.70 11.45
Soyoil stocks 1,846,090 1,950,420 2,821,264

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for a long weekend. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. Palm Oil was higher today on bullish production ideas. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia due to poor weather supported the market. More optimism that European economic issues were being addressed support futures..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 506.00 and 491.00 January. Support is at 508.00, 504.00, and 502.00 November, with resistance at 519.00, 526.00, and 533.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3270 and 3520 January. Support is at 3090, 3070, and 3045 January, with resistance at 3160, 3175, and 3235 January.

Midwest Weather: Showers are possible again today, but mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal early this week, then mostly below normal.

Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Morning Grains 11/14/11

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