11/14 15:00 CST U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Nov. 14 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
Week ended 11/13/11 11/06/11 11/13/10 5-year
WINTER WHEAT CONDITION
– Excellent 7 7 8 N/A
– Good 43 42 38 N/A
– Fair 36 36 37 N/A
– Poor 9 9 13 N/A
– Very Poor 5 6 4 N/A
COTTON HARVESTED 79 70 76 64
CORN HARVESTED 93 87 98 82
SOYBEANS HARVESTED 96 92 99 94
WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 96 94 96 95
WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 83 76 86 84
SORGHUM HARVESTED 85 78 92 80
SUNFLOWERS HARVESTED 93 85 87 78
PEANUTS HARVESTED 87 80 92 87
DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Nov 14
For the week ending Nov 10, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain —–week ending—– current previous
Nov 10 Nov 3 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 281.8 374.0 460.0 13,235.1 13,847.1
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.4 0.6
Barley 0.0 1.5 0.7 119.9 75.2
Flaxseed 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.0 1.0
Corn 703.9 605.6 790.1 7,053.1 8,991.3
Sorghum 24.9 42.5 150.4 514.5 818.4
Soybeans 1,456.7 1,407.9 2,073.0 8,526.7 12,769.2
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 2,467.6 2,431.8 3,474.2 29,453.8 36,502.9
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday as conditions are thought to be improving in Hard Red Winter Wheat areas and as demand for US Wheat remains difficult to find. More fears about the European economic mess despite positive developments from Italy and concern that some MF Global customers were selling or being forced to sell positions were negative, but the effects of the MF Global liquidation at least appear to be passing. Most farmers are done planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle due to less than optimal rains. USDA showed this in the crop reports today. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed, but weak for now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible today. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal much of the week and near to above normal by this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and unchanged for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 597 December. Support is at 610, 604, and 596 December, with resistance at 620, 630, and 633 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 678, 645, and 640 December. Support is at 688, 684, and 678 December, with resistance at 707, 712, and 725 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 928, 916, and 903 December, and resistance is at 945, 950, and 957 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were little changed yesterday in quiet trading. The market is trying to stabilize after the free fall since the MF Global bankruptcy was announced. Positions were moved, but money was not, and there were reports of a lot of position liquidation in the last week. Much of that selling should have been completed by now. Commercials were thought to be the best buyers. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to weak. Demand could be a big issue as farmers are now done harvesting. Demand appears to be weak right now. Buy side users of futures should consider pricing some of their needs at current levels.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1512, 1499, and 1472 January, with resistance at 1550, 1582, and 1600 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower on ideas of weak demand and the European and MF Global messes. A stronger US Dollar did nothing to help ideas of export demand that have been hurt by lower price offers from Ukraine and from offers of Feed Wheat by many countries. Argentina is also expected to offer more Corn into the world market Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will finish the Corn after the Soybeans are done. Harvest should be slow after some big rains moved through the Midwest over the last couple of days. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is mixed.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 630, 618, and 613 December. Support is at 630, 622, and 618 December, and resistance is at 643, 646, and 652 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 311 December. Support is at 318, 313, and 311 September, and resistance is at 322, 324, and 326 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on ideas of increasing demand. Soybean Meal was the weak sister in the complex. There was a lot of talk of Chinese interest, but basis levels at the Gulf did not show any real strength, perhaps in part due to the rally in futures. Farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, but mostly dry conditions are likely the rest of the week. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are steady in the country, and farmers might have increased sales before the USDA reports. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas under mostly good weather. Planting is active in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1156 January. Support is at 1168, 1165, and 1164 January, and resistance is at 1193, 1200, and 1218 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 297.00 December. Support is at 297.00, 292.00, and 291.00 December, and resistance is at 302.00, 306.00, and 310.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 4880 and 4660 December. Support is at 5080, 5060, and 5020 December, with resistance at 5160, 5200, and 5240 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in sympathy with Chicago. The rally here was strong as the market was closed last Friday and prices had to get back in line on the spreads. Strong Palm Oil futures helped Canola as well. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. Palm Oil was lower today. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia due to poor weather supported the market. Less optimism that European economic issues were being addressed hurt futures. SGS estimates exports so far this month at 802,917 tons, from 719,575 tons last month. ITK estimated exports at 801,463 tons, from 725,456 tons last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 506.00 and 491.00 January. Support is at 519.00, 508.00, and 504.00 November, with resistance at 526.00, 529.00, and 533.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 3270 and 3520 January. Support is at 3160, 3090, and 3070 January, with resistance at 3195, 3235, and 3270 January.
Midwest Weather: Showers are possible again today in eastern and southern areas, but mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal today, then mostly below normal.
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