11/04 11:53a CST DJ SURVEY: US Corn, Soybean Production And Yield
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)-The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for 2011-12 U.S. corn and soybean production, as compiled by Dow Jones
Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its October
production report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Wednesday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
Oct 2010
Average Range USDA Production
Corn (22) 12.402 12.159-12.549 12.433 12.447
Soybeans (22) 3.059 2.975-3.110 3.060 3.329
Yield Oct 2010
Average Range USDA Yield
Corn (22) 147.9 145.0-149.5 148.1 152.8
Soybeans (22) 41.5 40.4-42.2 41.5 43.5
Corn Corn Soy Soy
Production Yield Production Yield
ABN Amro 12.500 149.0 3.080 41.8
ADM Inv Services 12.433 148.1 3.044 41.3
AgResource 12.159 145.0 2.975 40.4
AgriSource 12.525 149.2 3.085 41.9
Agrivisor 12.507 149.0 3.072 41.7
Allendale 12.406 147.8 3.046 41.4
Citigroup 12.380 147.5 3.043 41.3
Doane 12.451 148.3 3.060 41.5
Farm Futures 12.370 147.5 3.037 41.2
FCStone 12.457 148.4 3.109 42.2
Globl Cmd Anlytics 12.536 148.8 3.090 42.1
*Informa 12.549 149.5 3.082 41.8
Jefferies Bache 12.377 147.2 3.050 41.4
Kropf and Love 12.300 147.0 3.047 41.4
Macquarie Bank 12.407 147.9 3.081 41.8
North Am Risk Mgmt 12.339 147.0 3.035 41.2
Newedge 12.405 147.8 3.044 41.3
PFG Best 12.210 147.9 3.110 41.6
Prime Ag 12.433 148.1 3.060 41.5
Risk Mgmt Commod 12.338 147.0 3.060 41.5
RJ O’Brien 12.248 145.9 3.035 41.2
US Commodities 12.518 149.2 3.052 41.4
*From traders
11/04 11:27a CST DJ SURVEY: US Grain, Soybean Carryout
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)-The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for 2011-12 U.S. grain and soybean ending stocks, as compiled by Dow
Jones Newswires.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply
and demand tables at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) Wednesday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
2011-12
Oct 2010-11
Average Range USDA USDA
Corn (19) 0.801 0.673-0.900 0.866 1.128
Soybeans (19) 0.185 0.150-0.254 0.160 0.215
Wheat (17) 0.819 0.653-0.891 0.837 0.861
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 0.900 0.180 0.825
ADM Investor Srvcs 0.801 0.254 0.805
AgriSource 0.895 0.200 0.830
Agrivisor 0.890 0.172 0.800
Allendale 0.795 0.180 0.891
Citigroup 0.763 0.175 0.830
Doane Advisory Srvcs 0.834 0.200 0.842
Farm Futures 0.746 0.175 0.787
Global Comm Analytics 0.831 0.197 0.653
Jefferies Bache 0.710 0.150 0.813
Kropf and Love 0.737 0.150 0.810
Macquarie Bank 0.876 0.246 0.818
Newedge USA 0.840 0.185 0.861
N Am Risk Man. 0.747 0.163 0.832
PFG Best 0.740 0.165 0.842
Prime Ag 0.866 0.185 0.837
Risk Management Comm. 0.673 0.220 n/a
RJ O’Brien 0.692 0.151 0.845
US Commodities 0.886 0.167 n/a
MF Global: Positions of US customers held by MF Global were moved by the various exchanges to new clearing firms late last week and over the weekend, and overseas positions continued to be moved yesterday. Client money in segregated funds remains at MF Global, with no official indication given as to when they might be moved. There are no new reports regarding the missing funds. CME revised its margins over the weekend in an effort to aid those with positions at new firms and money at MF Global yet maintain market integrity. The margins at least partially reflect the money posted by CME on behalf of those with positions at the new trade houses.
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in consolidation trading again yesterday. Trading was very slow with most willing to wait for further news about the MF Global situation and what is going on in Europe. Traders were also getting ready for the USDA crop reports tomorrow. Most farmers are planting in the Great Plains, but crops will struggle due to less than optimal rains. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas were hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains, and prices in Minneapolis have been strong. Wheat is still going to feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. Wheat will see a lot of selling on any rally attempts as USDA world data shows that there is plenty around except for here in the US. However, there are increasing reports of weather problems for new crop Wheat in Ukraine and Russia. Demand problems for the US imply that supplies will be ample despite the short production. Wheat prices will need very strong domestic demand to hold rallies together. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, although showers are possible today. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal much of the week and enar to above normal by this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and higher for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 620, 618, and 612 December, with resistance at 644, 647, and 651 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 712, 702, and 688 December, with resistance at 730, 739, and 747 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 916, 903, and 896 December, and resistance is at 934, 937, and 942 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were near unchanged yesterday in quiet trading. Many are now content to wait for the USDA reports that will be released tomorrow. Problems in the EU and with MF Global helped keep traded volumes to a minimum. Talk that Vietnam is temporarily sold out of Rice and the Thai problems with weather and prices helped bullish hopes that China could start to import from here. Vietnamese exports were down sharply last month to reflect supply tightness there. Philippines will reevaluate its import program for next year in light of recent and storms. Thailand floods have hurt Rice there and other crops as well, with the Rice Association there still estimating losses at 3.5 million tons of Paddy, and losses are expected in Cambodia as well. Philippines along with Indonesia might need to buy from India if Vietnam is out and if Thai crops are lost or partially lost. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress, although harvest is now about over. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1600, 1582, and 1550 January, with resistance at 1631, 1638, and 1644 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were lower in light volume trading. No one was willing to do much due to the problems at MF Global and in Europe, or before the USDA reports that will be released tomorrow morning. Farmers are almost done with the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after the Soybeans are done. Harvest should be very active in all areas early this week, but will slow down again later this week as rains return. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong, and western yields are starting to fade a little bit as the harvest there progresses. The cash market is steady to firm, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Farmers are not selling much anyway and basis levels have been firming in the country. Export demand is not strong and there is talk of demand being lost to Ukraine now. The lack of farmer selling has supported bull spreads.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. USDA said that Corn is now 87% harvested.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 647, 643, and 632 December, and resistance is at 660, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 321, 320, and 313 September, and resistance is at 326, 328, and 331 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a little lower on European economic crisis and the problems with MF Global. Traders were also getting ready for the USDA reports that will be released tomorrow morning. It was a light volume trade. Farmers are wrapping up the Soybeans harvest and will return to finish the Corn after he Soybeans are done. Soybeans are getting harvested and yield reports have been good to very good, but farmers do not feel like selling. The lack of selling has supported bull spreads. Rains over the last couple of days have slowed progress, and more rain is possible tomorrow. Traders are looking for demand news, and there has not been much. Basis levels are firm in the country, and farmers are not selling much. Brazil farmers are planting Soybeans in all areas this week. Planting is active in Argentina on what is called mostly good conditions.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. USDA said that Soybeans are now 92% harvested.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1195, 1182, and 1165 January, and resistance is at 1218, 1224, and 1242 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 301.00, and 292.00 December, and resistance is at 313.00, 317.00, and 325.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5100, 5080, and 5060 December, with resistance at 5160, 5240, and 5250 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on price action in Chicago. It was a low volume trade. Basis levels are reported strong, and end users are looking to futures to get priced. There was a lot of spreading out of November positions as well. Processors and exporters were the best buyers, but showed less interest as Chicago prices moved lower. StatsCanreported that 2010-11 Canola Oil and CanolaMeal exports were at record highs. It said the country shipped about 2.4 milion tons of oil and about 3.0 million tons of Meal for the year. Palm Oil was higher today. Ideas of lower production in Malaysia due to poor weather supported the market. Traders were waiting for the USDA reports due tomorrow.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 526.00, 519.00, and 515.00 November, with resistance at 539.00, 544.00, and 554.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3030 January. Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2900 January, with resistance at 3025, 3045, and 3070 January.
Midwest Weather: Showers and rains today and tomorrow, then dry again late in the week. Temperatures will average above normal today and near to below normal later in the week.
Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
