U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights –“ USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 (Reuters) — Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
Week ended 08/21/11 08/14/11 08/21/10 5-year
COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 6 5 16 N/A
– Good 25 26 46 N/A
– Fair 28 29 27 N/A
– Poor 19 19 8 N/A
– Very Poor 22 21 3 N/A
CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 13 14 23 N/A
– Good 44 46 47 N/A
– Fair 26 25 20 N/A
– Poor 11 10 7 N/A
– Very Poor 6 5 3 N/A
SOYBEANS CONDITION
– Excellent 13 13 18 N/A
– Good 46 48 46 N/A
– Fair 27 26 23 N/A
– Poor 10 9 9 N/A
– Very Poor 4 4 4 N/A
RICE CONDITION
– Excellent 27 26 20 N/A
– Good 40 40 48 N/A
– Fair 26 27 26 N/A
– Poor 6 6 5 N/A
– Very Poor 1 1 1 N/A
SPRING WHEAT CONDITION
– Excellent 11 11 18 N/A
– Good 51 55 64 N/A
– Fair 28 26 16 N/A
– Poor 8 7 2 N/A
– Very Poor 2 1 0 N/A
PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 8 6 11 N/A
– Good 36 37 45 N/A
– Fair 39 36 34 N/A
– Poor 13 15 8 N/A
– Very Poor 4 6 2 N/A
SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 4 3 9 N/A
– Good 23 24 55 N/A
– Fair 32 32 27 N/A
– Poor 23 23 7 N/A
– Very Poor 18 18 2 N/A
BARLEY CONDITION
– Excellent 11 11 16 N/A
– Good 55 57 68 N/A
– Fair 27 26 13 N/A
– Poor 6 5 3 N/A
– Very Poor 1 1 0 N/A
PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 6 7 9 N/A
– Good 31 30 43 N/A
– Fair 24 24 29 N/A
– Poor 18 18 14 N/A
– Very Poor 21 21 5 N/A
COTTON SETTING BOLLS 94 88 93 90
COTTON BOLLS OPEN 16 11 20 16
CORN DOUGHING 73 52 86 73
CORN DENTED 33 17 51 37
SOYBEANS BLOOMING 97 94 98 97
SOYBEANS SETTING PODS 83 70 90 88
RICE HEADED 82 73 88 86
RICE HARVESTED 13 NA 16 12
WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED 94 91 94 97
SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED 29 13 49 56
PEANUTS PEGGING 96 92 98 96
SORGHUM HEADED 78 66 90 84
SORGHUM COLORING 37 32 43 42
SORGHUM MATURE 26 25 22 24
SORGHUM HARVESTED 21 NA 16 20
BARLEY HARVESTED 25 8 45 55
OATS HARVESTED 80 65 90 87
DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Aug 22
For the week ending Aug 18, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Aug 18 Aug 11 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 474.1 586.0 671.3 6,831.4 5,785.0
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.1 0.0 0.1 1.9 0.4
Barley 2.7 27.1 0.5 63.5 5.1
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
Corn 749.7 941.6 1,118.9 44,040.5 46,013.6
Sorghum 65.3 151.4 58.4 3,773.9 4,083.8
Soybeans 295.4 179.9 338.4 40,069.1 39,242.9
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 1,587.3 1,886.0 2,187.7 94,780.4 95,131.5
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday on ideas that less and less high quality Wheat is available here in the US. Rains have hurt yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas on top of the poor Hard Red Winter harvest. It remains very dry in the southern Great Plains and planting could soon be impacted. Demand is not bad for Wheat. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in better condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. However, yield reports do not appear strong for Spring Wheat so far. Russian grains and Wheat prices are turning stronger and this will take some of the price pressure off the US futures and cash markets. Charts show that the trends are turning up after the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central areas could see some showers and northern areas could see mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. The Canadian Wheat Board asid Wheat is 7% harvested in the Prairies. Egypt bought 180,000 tons of Ruccian Wheat overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 805 and 840 September. Support is at 721, 701, and 690 September, with resistance at 748, 767, and 772 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 840 and 852 September. Support is at 819, 791, and 789 September, with resistance at 834, 851, and 868 September. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 1036 September. Support is at 938, 932, and 923 September, and resistance is at 958, 970, and 976 September.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were higher yesterday as crop concerns came back and as word got around of higher prices in Asia. Asian prices have been strong as Thailand implements a new support program for farmers that will pay them much higher prices and as Rice offers inside Vietnam become increasingly hard to find. The market remains concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year. The temperatures have moderated in the Mid South, but the region is still not getting a lot of rain, although there has been some. Texas and Louisiana are in harvest, with good yields being reported in both states. Crop conditions showed improvement in the weekly updates from USDA last night. Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices. Trends are generally up on the charts, but turned mixed for the short term with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Vietnam has sold Indonesia 300,000 tons of Rice.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1675, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1720, 1729, and 1736 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher on crop production concerns. The Pro Farmer crop tour started yesterday and concentrated on South Dakota and northern Nebraska as well as central Ohio. Crop in these areas appeared to be mostly good, although some variable conditions were noted and overall production potentials appeared below average. However, these were some of the better parts of the Corn Belt this year. More damage and bigger crop losses are expected as the tours move to the center of the region today and tomorrow. USDA dropped condition ratings again overnight. There is still talk of yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week or two to help keep yields from falling further. Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected. The question now is just how big those losses are. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 730 and 771 September. Support is at 708, 693, and 688 September, and resistance is at 722, 729, and 732 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 365 and 418 September. Support is at 347, 343, and 338 September, and resistance is at 356, 360, and 365 September.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on production concerns. Overall Midwest weather is mixed for Soybeans development and production potential. However, most of the region missed out on any meaningful precipitation at all, so there are still problems out there. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers later this week, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour started yesterday and concentrated on South Dakota, northern Nebraska, and central Ohio. Pod counts were highly variable, but mostly appeared to be a little below average although above a year ago in areas. USDA lowered its crop ratings in its weekly updates released last night. Soybeans have had better weather in August than Corn got in July, but tour participants on both sections noted the need for more rain. Charts show that trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1387 September. Support is at 1367, 1359, and 1351 September, and resistance is at 1386, 1390, and 1405 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 358.00, 356.00, and 349.00 September, and resistance is at 365.00, 368.00, and 370.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5540, 5490, and 5460 September, with resistance at 5640, 5740, and 5820 September.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on Chicago and on reports of good processor buying. Processors were buying on much improved crush margins. Speculators were the best traders on both sides of the market. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest and not interested in selling. Most crops appear to be in good condition. Palm Oil was higher today on strong export demand and macroeconomic moves.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 553.00, 551.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 560.00, 565.00, and 570.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2895 November, with resistance at 3050, 3065, and 3085 November.
Midwest Weather: Showers over the middle of the week, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average near normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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