DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 25
For the week ended Aug 18, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1.
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 347.1 0.0 11833.3 13059.8 5324.8 63.6
corn 383.8 152.3 48430.1 52421.0 4626.7 8732.3
soybeans 107.5 550.1 42231.2 41287.7 2713.3 11005.4
soymeal 61.6 28.7 7831.5 9566.1 873.9 564.3
soyoil 0.5 0.0 1366.7 1452.4 152.2 17.3
upland cotton -230.3 -387.2 6145.3 6508.9 5891.9 138.1
pima cotton 0.1 0.0 370.9 160.0 367.0 0.9
sorghum -29.4 -2.3 3497.9 3633.8 231.3 173.0
barley 0.0 0.0 80.6 60.6 51.6 0.0
rice 62.9 0.0 565.1 689.2 404.6 0.3

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be3 speculative profit taking tied to higher than expected production estimates from Canada. Minneapolis Wheat futures apparently put in a short term top after the price action yesterday. Ideas that less and less high quality Wheat is available here in the US continue. Rains have hurt yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas on top of the poor Hard Red Winter harvest. It remains very dry in the southern Great Plains and planting could soon be impacted. Demand is not bad for Wheat. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in better condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. However, yield reports do not appear strong for Spring Wheat so far. Russian grains and Wheat prices are turning stronger amid a very active export pace and this will take some of the price pressure off the US futures and cash markets. Reports from Europe indicate that Germany has lost some production this year due to excessive rains in the last several weeks. The rains have hurt yields and quality. Charts show that the trends are up after the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central areas could see some showers and northern areas could see mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady to weaker for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Egypt bought 120,000 tons of Russian and Romanian Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 805 and 840 September. Support is at 739, 733, and 721 September, with resistance at 764, 767, and 772 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 852 September. Support is at 819, 791, and 789 September, with resistance at 844, 851, and 868 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 916, 888, and 714 September. Support is at 920, 895, and 875 September, and resistance is at 932, 938, and 948 September.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower yesterday on selling seen in all grains. The market appears caught between some improvement in crop ratings and on harvest progress on one side and stronger world prices on the other. Yield reports have been strong considering the weather, but cash prices have held even with the harvest in the domestic markets. Asian prices have been strong as Thailand implements a new support program for farmers that will pay them much higher prices and as Rice offers inside Vietnam become increasingly hard to find. Texas and Louisiana are in harvest, with good yields being reported in both states. Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices. Trends turned mixed for the short term with the price action last week.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on through this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Vietnam has exported 5.31 million tons of Rice so far this year, up 6.5% from last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1680, 1675, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1700, 1720, and 1729 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were mostly lower on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. The Pro Farmer crop tour continued yesterday and concentrated on Iowa and Illinois. Illinois crops were said to be just above average, but stress was seen. Crop in Indiana appeared below average. Iowa crops were very bad in southwestern parts of the state, but better in other areas. The tours move to Minnesota and Iowa today, the last day or touring. There is still talk of yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July and the poor Spring weather that hurt planting. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week. Many analysts continue to drop Corn yield potential in response to the lower USDA ratings released Monday night. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 771 September. Support is at 722, 715, and 708 September, and resistance is at 737, 744, and 746 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 418 September. Support is at 360, 355, and 347 September, and resistance is at 365, 368, and 370 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on what appeared to be speculative profit taking. Production concerns seem to be easing as Soybeans overall appear to be in better shape in Illinois and Iowa. However, pod counts on the Pro Farmer Crop Tour in many areas were still below last year. The tour moves through the rest of Iowa and southern Minnesota on today, its last day. Overall Midwest weather is mixed for Soybeans development and production potential. Some rains were reported in parts of the Midwest yesterday. However, most of the region missed out on any meaningful precipitation at all, so there are still problems out there. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers later this week, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region. USDA lowered its crop ratings in its weekly updates, and some analysts are now lowering yield and production estimates in response to the USDA reports and the tour results. Soybeans have had better weather in August than Corn got in July, but tour participants on both sections noted the need for more rain. Charts show that trends are up.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1367, 1359, and 1351 September, and resistance is at 1396, 1405, and 1406 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 365.00, 358.00, and 356.00 September, and resistance is at 370.00, 374.00, and 377.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5540, 5490, and 5460 September, with resistance at 5610, 5640, and 5740 September.

US July soy crush 129.56 mln bu-Census Bureau
WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) – The U.S. Census Bureau
released the following monthly data on U.S. oil mill stocks and
soybean crushings:
July 2011 Trade June 2011 July 2010
est.
SOYBEAN CRUSHINGS
Short tons: 3,886,881 3,708,711 3,880,922
Bushels (mln): 129.56 129.57 123.62 129.36
SOY/HULL MEAL STOCKS 422,416 372,200 284,299 425,014
(short tons)
SOYOIL STOCKS 3,065,293 3,066,000 3,128,631 3,549,294
(thou lbs)

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on Chicago and on reports of good processor buying. Traders ignored the record production forecast from StatsCan shortly after a move to new highs just after the open as the production shown in the report was actually a little below expectations. Processors were buying on much improved crush margins. Speculators were the best traders on both sides of the market. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest and not interested in selling. Most crops appear to be in good condition. Palm Oil was lower today on reports of changes in the Indonesian tax structure that will make its exports more competitive to those from Malaysia. Strong demand should provide overall support. Markets will not trade much next week as Malaysia will be in holidays.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 590.00 November. Support is at 557.00, 553.00, and 551.00 November, with resistance at 566.00, 570.00, and 574.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2895 November, with resistance at 3085, 3090, and 3140 November.

Midwest Weather: Mostly dry through the weekend, but there will be periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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