WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher Friday on ides of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat along with ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. A weaker US Dollar added support. Ideas that less and less high quality Wheat is available here in the US continue. Rains have hurt yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas on top of the poor Hard Red Winter harvest. It remains very dry in the southern Great Plains and planting could soon be impacted. Demand is not bad for Wheat. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the next week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in better condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. However, yield reports do not appear strong for Spring Wheat so far. Russian grains and Wheat prices are turning stronger amid a very active export pace and this will take some of the price pressure off the US futures and cash markets. Reports from Europe indicate that Germany has lost some production this year due to excessive rains in the last several weeks. The rains have hurt yields and quality. Charts show that the trends are up after the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central areas could see some showers and northern areas could see mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Yemen bought 100,000 tons of Black Sea Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 805 and 840 September. Support is at 748, 739, and 735 September, with resistance at 768, 772, and 781 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 853, 844, and 835 September, with resistance at 868, 880, and 892 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 940, 911, and 895 September, and resistance is at 961, 970, and 976 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 550,790
: Positions
: 50,571 189,075 188,953 10,704 37,651 68,869 64,490 55,433 12,664 34,341 95,152
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -2,667 5,631 2,035 -804 -2,238 3,414 -3,764 -636 30 1,182 4,905
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 9.2 34.3 34.3 1.9 6.8 12.5 11.7 10.1 2.3 6.2 17.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 415
: 79 102 19 7 24 49 67 60 63 83 118
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 180,898
: Positions
: 36,795 110,596 27,126 528 2,628 46,582 5,900 15,231 14,560 5,301 13,171
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: 47 1,881 -2,453 2 -63 3,543 396 -2,303 901 335 -636
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.3 61.1 15.0 0.3 1.5 25.8 3.3 8.4 8.0 2.9 7.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 185
: 50 72 14 . 7 36 11 27 23 16 31
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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WHEAT – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 49,182
: Positions
: 16,372 29,877 1,044 0 263 7,911 423 1,855 3,063 674 4,879
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -2,698 -997 -254 0 -141 -60 -382 -855 -335 -716 364
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 33.3 60.7 2.1 0.0 0.5 16.1 0.9 3.8 6.2 1.4 9.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 64
: 28 20 5 0 . 8 . 5 10 4 11
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RICE
General Comments: Prices were higher Friday on speculative buying related to less than expected stocks seen in the USDA reports and on the rallies in commodities in general after the price positive reaction to the remarks by Ben Bernacke. The market has been caught between some improvement in crop ratings and on harvest progress on one side and stronger world prices on the other. Yield reports remain good along the Gulf Coast, but cash prices have held even with the harvest in the domestic markets. Milling yields have not been that strong as harvest progresses. Domestic buyers are waiting for the Arkansas harvest to start, and this should start this or next week. Asian prices have been strong as Thailand implements a new support program for farmers that will pay them much higher prices and as Rice offers inside Vietnam become hard to find. However, Pakistan and smaller exporters in Asia have been able to sell at lower prices. Texas and Louisiana are in harvest, with good yields being reported in both states. Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices. Trends are mixed for the short term. Thailand prices are reported to be 6% to 8% higher this week by the USDA Attaché there. South Korea bought 81,734 tons of non glutinous Rice, including 20,000 tons from the US.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on through this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1682, 1675, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1720, 1729, and 1736 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 20,546
: Positions
: 4,195 13,257 3,368 0 0 3,030 610 759 1,114 1,645 3,097
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: 123 -18 112 0 -3 83 0 186 -364 56 194
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 20.4 64.5 16.4 0.0 0.0 14.7 3.0 3.7 5.4 8.0 15.1
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 94
: 19 18 9 0 0 18 4 5 15 17 23
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher o production ideas and a weaker US Dollar. The Pro Farmer crop tour finished up and released a very low production estimate, but one that is possible given the weather this year. There is still talk of more yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop, but more rain would make conditions better and keep yields from sliding further. But, there are no significant rains forecast for the coming week. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July and the poor Spring weather that hurt planting. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Many analysts continue to drop Corn yield potential in response to the poor weather. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. Pro Farmer estimated US Corn production at 12.484 billion bushels on Friday afternoon.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 771 September. Support is at 736, 724, and 715 September, and resistance is at 765, 775, and 782 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 418 September. Support is at 370, 369, and 368 September, and resistance is at 383, 391, and 400 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,027,276
: Positions
: 308,721 765,708 282,730 54,689 154,431 315,480 27,361 231,154 85,615 56,319 443,278
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: 331 8,848 5,874 2,259 9,505 6,200 4,059 6,525 3,255 -766 15,707
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 15.2 37.8 13.9 2.7 7.6 15.6 1.3 11.4 4.2 2.8 21.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 918
: 274 391 14 15 27 132 28 84 134 159 229
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 15,822
: Positions
: 5,717 11,357 2,254 0 0 2,631 743 0 612 254 1,789
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: 566 1,012 3 0 0 379 -108 0 155 0 48
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 36.1 71.8 14.2 0.0 0.0 16.6 4.7 0.0 3.9 1.6 11.3
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 43
: 11 12 6 0 0 9 . 0 9 . 6
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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CBT ETHANOL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)
CFTC Code #025601 Open Interest is 10,093
: Positions
: 7,644 7,108 0 820 160 652 0 84 384 998 526
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: 349 180 0 -18 -85 65 0 38 -46 160 126
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 75.7 70.4 0.0 8.1 1.6 6.5 0.0 0.8 3.8 9.9 5.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 38
: 17 23 0 . . 5 0 . 4 . 4
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SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculative buying tied to ideas of yield losses and a weaker US Dollar. Pro Farmer, however, showed strong production potential for US Soybeans and the crop seems to have done better in the extreme weather seen this year. Overall Midwest weather is mixed for Soybeans development and production potential. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers later this week, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region. Soybeans have had better weather in August than Corn got in July, but tour participants on both sections noted the need for more rain. Charts show that trends are mostly up.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. Pro Farmer estimated US Soybeans production at 3.083 billion bushels on Friday afternoon.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1427 September. Support is at 1396, 1391, and 1379 September, and resistance is at 1420, 1432, and 1444 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 369.00, 365.00, and 358.00 September, and resistance is at 377.00, 384.00, and 390.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5740 and 6000 September. Support is at 5610, 5530, and 5490 September, with resistance at 5740, 5820, and 5910 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 751,738
: Positions
: 120,394 354,830 135,167 18,067 32,766 143,974 12,323 64,368 29,133 30,993 159,278
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -26,803 34,399 2,585 2,043 905 38,500 -13,038 6,934 379 1,383 10,419
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 16.0 47.2 18.0 2.4 4.4 19.2 1.6 8.6 3.9 4.1 21.2
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 588
: 95 179 20 8 24 111 21 67 101 124 165
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 60,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 327,128
: Positions
: 97,657 170,549 64,901 1,557 14,866 42,327 29,578 22,685 16,451 19,410 40,594
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -10,251 1,976 -946 -165 906 1,898 -10,335 1,944 275 913 2,555
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 29.9 52.1 19.8 0.5 4.5 12.9 9.0 6.9 5.0 5.9 12.4
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 249
: 55 61 16 . 14 42 32 29 33 39 53
————————————————————————————————————–
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 23, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
————————————————————————————————————–
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 100 TONS)
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 211,876
: Positions
: 60,954 121,435 16,222 5,242 1,395 51,178 12,474 13,529 3,003 9,265 23,297
: Changes from: August 16, 2011
: -6,499 16,596 496 140 369 13,670 -1,069 1,109 449 99 2,289
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 28.8 57.3 7.7 2.5 0.7 24.2 5.9 6.4 1.4 4.4 11.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 203
: 54 59 11 . 8 55 13 16 18 22 37
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CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on Chicago and US weather. Processors were buying on much improved crush margins. Speculators were the best sellers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest and not interested in selling. Most crops appear to be in good condition. Palm Oil was not available today. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 1.620 million tons, from 1.628 million last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 590.00 November. Support is at 566.00, 560.00, and 557.00 November, with resistance at 574.00, 580.00, and 582.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2960 and 2880 November. Support is at 2960, 2895, and 2880 November, with resistance at 2990, 3035, and 3090 November.
08/26 10:10 CDT Canada weekly canola crushings fall 22 pct
WINNIPEG, Manitoba, Aug 26 (Reuters) – Report of weekly
crushings by the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association for
the week ending Aug. 24.
Canola Soybeans
Week ending Aug. 24 86,039 23,160
Change from previous week(%) -22.1 -12.8
2011/12 to date 361,589 86,116
Year ago 360,761 84,318
Week ending Aug. 17 110,379 26,568
Aug. 10 115,028 25,926
Crush capacity utilization (%)
This week 59.2 51.7
Year to date 66.6 51.4
Year ago 66.5 50.4
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry through the weekend, but there will be periods of showers. Temperatures will average near normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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