U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights — USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 29 (Reuters)– Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
Week ended 08/28/11 08/21/11 08/28/10 5-year
COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 5 6 15 N/A
– Good 25 25 45 N/A
– Fair 29 28 28 N/A
– Poor 18 19 9 N/A
– Very Poor 23 22 3 N/A
CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 12 13 22 N/A
– Good 42 44 48 N/A
– Fair 27 26 20 N/A
– Poor 12 11 7 N/A
– Very Poor 7 6 3 N/A
SOYBEANS CONDITION
– Excellent 13 13 18 N/A
– Good 44 46 46 N/A
– Fair 28 27 24 N/A
– Poor 10 10 9 N/A
– Very Poor 5 4 3 N/A
RICE CONDITION
– Excellent 25 27 19 N/A
– Good 40 40 49 N/A
– Fair 27 26 28 N/A
– Poor 7 6 4 N/A
– Very Poor 1 1 0 N/A
SPRING WHEAT CONDITION
– Excellent 9 11 N/A N/A
– Good 52 51 N/A N/A
– Fair 30 28 N/A N/A
– Poor 8 8 N/A N/A
– Very Poor 1 2 N/A N/A
PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 8 8 12 N/A
– Good 32 36 47 N/A
– Fair 38 39 32 N/A
– Poor 16 13 7 N/A
– Very Poor 6 4 2 N/A
SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 9 N/A
– Good 22 23 53 N/A
– Fair 32 32 28 N/A
– Poor 23 23 7 N/A
– Very Poor 19 18 3 N/A
BARLEY CONDITION
– Excellent 12 11 N/A N/A
– Good 54 55 N/A N/A
– Fair 26 27 N/A N/A
– Poor 7 6 N/A N/A
– Very Poor 1 1 N/A N/A
PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 6 6 7 N/A
– Good 30 31 41 N/A
– Fair 24 24 31 N/A
– Poor 18 18 15 N/A
– Very Poor 22 21 6 N/A
COTTON SETTING BOLLS 96 94 96 94
COTTON BOLLS OPEN 27 16 28 23
CORN DOUGHING 88 73 94 85
CORN DENTED 53 33 70 54
CORN MATURE 9 NA 17 11
SOYBEANS SETTING PODS 93 83 96 94
SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES 2 NA 7 6
RICE HEADED 90 82 93 93
RICE HARVESTED 18 13 30 19
WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED 97 94 97 99
SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED 50 29 66 71
SORGHUM HEADED 90 83 78 94
SORGHUM COLORING 52 43 37 55
SORGHUM MATURE 27 26 24 26
SORGHUM HARVESTED 22 21 17 21
BARLEY HARVESTED 46 25 64 70
OATS HARVESTED 89 80 96 94
DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Aug 29
For the week ending Aug 25, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain -week ending”- current previous
Aug 25 Aug 18 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 638.0 513.0 752.8 7,513.0 6,537.8
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 0.4
Barley 0.0 2.7 0.0 63.5 5.1
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
Corn 693.8 814.9 1,356.1 44,872.4 47,369.7
Sorghum 38.0 65.3 51.3 3,811.9 4,135.1
Soybeans 224.4 297.1 233.5 40,309.1 39,476.4
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 1,594.1 1,693.3 2,393.7 96,572.1 97,525.2
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed mixed yesterday on reports of profit taking by speculators. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained in areas of the central and southern Great Plains continue, but there are forecasts for some showers to hit the Panhandle areas of Texas and Oklahoma last night and late this week. Rains have hurt yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas on top of the poor Hard Red Winter harvest. Demand is not bad for Wheat. Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the next week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Russian grains and Wheat prices are turning stronger amid a very active export pace and this will take some of the price pressure off the US futures and cash markets. Reports from Europe indicate that Germany has lost some production this year due to excessive rains in the last several weeks, and exports from Europe will probably be less. Charts show that the trends are up after the price action last week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but central areas could see some showers and northern areas could see mostly dry conditions or light showers. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. USDA asid that unknown destinations bought 102,500 tons of US HRW Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 805 and 840 September. Support is at 748, 739, and 735 September, with resistance at 768, 772, and 781 September. Trends in Kansas City are up with no objectives. Support is at 868, 853, and 844 September, with resistance at 880, 892, and 908 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 888 September. Support is at 940, 911, and 895 September, and resistance is at 962, 970, and 976 September.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were higher again yesterday on speculative buying related to less than expected stocks seen in the USDA reports last week and on ideas or poor yields. The reports showe4d less than expected supplies on hand now, and implied a very tight situation for the coming year when combined with lower production estimates. Yield reports remain good along the Gulf Coast, but cash prices have held or firmed even with the harvest in the domestic markets. Milling yields have not been that strong as harvest progresses. Domestic buyers are waiting for the Arkansas harvest to start, and this should start this or next week. Asian prices have been strong as Thailand implements a new support program for farmers that will pay them much higher prices and as Rice offers inside Vietnam become hard to find. However, Pakistan and smaller exporters in Asia have been able to sell at lower prices. Wire reports indicate that Asian prices are lower this week on the increased competition. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices. Trends are mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on through this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to above normal. China estimates early season Rice production at 32.75 million tons, up 4.5% from last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1682, 1675, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1732, 1736, and 1748 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher o production ideas and expectations for more crop deterioration in the USDA reports that were issued last night. The Pro Farmer crop tour finished up and released a very low production estimate, but one that is possible given the weather this year. USDA dropped its condition ratings more than expected by the trade, but this news might produced less reaction that normal as traders already know that Corn is not in good condition.
There is still talk of more yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop, but more rain would make conditions better and keep yields from sliding further. But, there are no significant rains forecast for the coming week. Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July and the poor Spring weather that hurt planting. Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Many analysts continue to drop Corn yield potential in response to the poor weather. Demand is dropping as well. End users are increasingly looking to Wheat or other substitute grains in place of Corn due to the high price of Corn. The export sales pace has also been behind last year. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress. However, condition ratings are still down.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 771 September. Support is at 736, 724, and 715 September, and resistance is at 765, 775, and 782 September. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 418 September. Support is at 370, 369, and 368 September, and resistance is at 390, 391, and 400 September.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher on speculative buying tied to ideas of yield losses. Overall Midwest weather is mixed for Soybeans development and production potential.
Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers later this week, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region. Farmers report that rains are needed very soon to avoid any more yield loss. It is still pod setting and pod filling time, and moisture needs are high. Soybeans have had better weather in August than Corn got in July, but still need additional rains. USDA dropped condition ratings for Soybeans last night, but the ratings were in line with trade expectations. Demand is not strong at this time for US Soybeans.
Charts show that trends are mostly up.
Overnight News: Basis levels are weaker at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with no objectives. Support is at 1432, 1420, and 1396 September, and resistance is at 1444, 1456, and 1468 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 371.00, 369.00, and 368.00 September, and resistance is at 384.00, 390.00, and 396.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 6000 September. Support is at 5740, 5640, and 5610 September, with resistance at 5820, 5910, and 6000 September.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on Chicago and US weather. Funds were the best buyers. Processors were buying on much improved crush margins. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest and not interested in selling. Most crops appear to be in good condition. Palm Oil was not available today. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 1.620 million tons, from 1.628 million last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 590.00 November. Support is at 574.00, 570.00, and 566.00 November, with resistance at 582.00, 589.00, and 591.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2960 and 2880 November. Support is at 2960, 2895, and 2880 November, with resistance at 2990, 3035, and 3090 November.
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry, but there will be periods of showers today and over the weekend. Temperatures will average near normal.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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