U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Sept. 19 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 09/18/11 09/11/11 09/18/10 5-year

COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 14 N/A
– Good 23 24 44 N/A
– Fair 28 28 29 N/A
– Poor 20 19 9 N/A
– Very Poor 25 25 4 N/A

CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 11 11 20 N/A
– Good 40 42 48 N/A
– Fair 28 27 21 N/A
– Poor 13 13 8 N/A
– Very Poor 8 7 3 N/A

SOYBEANS CONDITION
– Excellent 10 12 17 N/A
– Good 43 44 46 N/A
– Fair 29 27 25 N/A
– Poor 13 12 9 N/A
– Very Poor 5 5 3 N/A

RICE CONDITION
– Excellent 24 24 N/A N/A
– Good 40 40 N/A N/A
– Fair 27 28 N/A N/A
– Poor 8 7 N/A N/A
– Very Poor 1 1 N/A N/A

SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 9 N/A
– Good 21 21 53 N/A
– Fair 31 30 29 N/A
– Poor 24 24 7 N/A
– Very Poor 20 21 2 N/A

PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 5 6 10 N/A
– Good 29 31 39 N/A
– Fair 42 40 34 N/A
– Poor 16 17 13 N/A
– Very Poor 8 6 4 N/A

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 5 5 7 N/A
– Good 26 27 39 N/A
– Fair 25 26 31 N/A
– Poor 19 18 16 N/A
– Very Poor 25 24 7 N/A

COTTON BOLLS OPEN 69 57 66 54
COTTON HARVESTED 11 9 12 10
CORN DENTED 92 84 97 91
CORN MATURE 46 29 67 48
CORN HARVESTED 10 NA 18 11
SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES 33 15 56 47
WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 14 6 19 20
RICE HARVESTED 47 37 65 48
SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED 93 83 86 92
SORGHUM HEADED 94 92 100 99
SORGHUM COLORING 71 63 90 83
SORGHUM MATURE 37 32 44 43
SORGHUM HARVESTED 24 23 23 28
PEANUTS HARVESTED 4 4 NA 6
BARLEY HARVESTED 94 85 85 93
SUGARBEETS HARVESTED 3 NA 10 6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Sep 19
For the week ending Sep 15, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Sep 15 Sep 8 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 907.2 447.0 911.7 9,513.7 8,976.8
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.5
Barley 0.0 50.9 27.1 116.4 36.1
Flaxseed 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
Corn 568.8 477.7 912.6 1,161.1 2,440.4
Sorghum 36.7 81.5 130.5 123.1 156.8
Soybeans 272.3 325.4 350.3 650.5 638.4
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 1,785.2 1,382.7 2,332.4 11,567.1 12,249.8
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower again yesterday in Chicago in response to selling seen in most markets and ideas that most of the export business was still going to Russia and countries near there. Fears of an economic meltdown in Greece and all of Europe caused a lot of the selling. Some showers were seen in much of the Great Plains and Midwest last week, and more is possible later this week. Rain totals remain very light, but even light rain will help there since it has been so dry. It might be enough to give southern Great Plains Wheat producers reasons to start planting. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains continue. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Charts show that the trends are down.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but some rains are likely on Wednesday. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to below normal early in the week and near to above normal later in the week. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, but rain is possible in southern sections today, and very warm by this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with no objectives. Support is at 667, 662, and 651 December, with resistance at 680, 682, and 686 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 760, 755, and 734 December, with resistance at 778, 800, and 806 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with no objectives. Support is at 833, 822, and 815 December, and resistance is at 853, 860, and 876 December.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were sharply lower to limit down yesterday on speculative selling tied to weakness in outside markets and fears about the European situation. Cold weather remains and issue for farmers here and is expected to return by the middle of the week. The weather was cool last week enough to hurt Rice progress and yield potential, at least in Arkansas and Missouri, and might get cool enough again by the middle of the week. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady to firm in Arkansas. New crop bids have also been steady to firm. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm. Futures remain well above cash prices, but cash prices are starting to move a little higher as the harvest progresses.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas Thursday, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1724 and 1664 November. Support is at 1720, 1716, and 1680 November, and resistance is at 1751, 1763, and 1795 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday, although Corn was able to recover on rumors that China was interested in buying between 2.0 and 5.0 of US or Argentine Corn. The rumors were not confirmed, but wire services quoted Chinese analysts as expecting imports this year. They said that China could become a very big importer of Corn in the next few years. Some showers and cool temperatures were seen over the weekend and the precipitation could slow harvest progress. More showers are expected in northern areas over the middle of the week, and temperatures will turn cold again. USDA showed more than expected condition declines in its weekly reports yesterday, implying that the freeze damage was worse than generally assumed last week. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been hard to find with current prices. End users are increasingly looking to Wheat or other substitute grains in place of Corn due to the high price of Corn. The export sales pace has also been behind last year. Basis levels are steady in the country as the elevators prepare for the harvest.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with no objectives. Support is at 686, 677, and 669 December, and resistance is at 707, 717, and 725 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 342, 340, and 338 September, and resistance is at 349, 359, and 361 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower again yesterday on ideas of weak demand and on the European and Greek economic issues. A cold front moved through the Midwest last week and brought frost or freezes to some of the crop in Minnesota and the Dakotas. USDA showed greater than expected condition losses in its weekly updates yesterday because of the event. Some showers were seen over the weekend, but were coming mostly too late to help crops much. More showers are likely in northern areas over the middle of the week, then it will turn cold again. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are steady. Charts show that trends are mostly down for the short term.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1326, 1318, and 1282 November, and resistance is at 1345, 1349, and 1375 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 342.00, 338.00, and 337.00 October, and resistance is at 346.00, 353.00, and 354.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5515, 5475, and 5415 October, with resistance at 5600, 5625, and 5650 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and on harvest progress. Funds and producers were the best sellers. Exporters and processors were the best buyers. Reports of dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Ideas are that the crops are now past danger from freezes. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was higher today on better outside markets and currency considerations Indonesia said it will raise its Palm Oil export tax to 16.5% in October. SGS estimated exports so far this month at 967,859 tons, from 1.171 million tons last month. ITK estimated exports so fr at 978,087 tons, from 1.170 million tons last month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 546.00, 544.00, and 532.00 November, with resistance at 551.00, 553.00, and 557.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 3015, 2980, and 2960 December, with resistance at 3080, 3090, and 3115 December.

Midwest Weather: Mostly dry, but showers are possible across northern areas tomorrow. Temperatures will average below normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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