09/26 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Sept. 26 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 09/25/11 09/18/11 09/25/10 5-year

COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 14 N/A
– Good 25 23 41 N/A
– Fair 27 28 31 N/A
– Poor 19 20 10 N/A
– Very Poor 25 25 4 N/A

CORN CONDITION
– Excellent 11 11 19 N/A
– Good 41 40 47 N/A
– Fair 28 28 21 N/A
– Poor 13 13 9 N/A
– Very Poor 7 8 4 N/A

SOYBEANS CONDITION
– Excellent 10 10 17 N/A
– Good 43 43 46 N/A
– Fair 29 29 24 N/A
– Poor 13 13 9 N/A
– Very Poor 5 5 4 N/A

RICE CONDITION
– Excellent 22 24 N/A N/A
– Good 39 40 N/A N/A
– Fair 29 27 N/A N/A
– Poor 9 8 N/A N/A
– Very Poor 1 1 N/A N/A

SORGHUM CONDITION
– Excellent 4 4 8 N/A
– Good 20 21 53 N/A
– Fair 31 31 29 N/A
– Poor 24 24 8 N/A
– Very Poor 21 20 2 N/A

PEANUTS CONDITION
– Excellent 7 5 8 N/A
– Good 31 29 39 N/A
– Fair 31 31 29 N/A
– Poor 24 24 8 N/A
– Very Poor 21 20 2 N/A

PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
– Excellent 5 5 7 N/A
– Good 26 26 37 N/A
– Fair 27 25 31 N/A
– Poor 19 19 17 N/A
– Very Poor 23 25 8 N/A

COTTON BOLLS OPEN 76 69 77 65
COTTON HARVESTED 13 11 17 14
CORN DENTED 96 92 99 96
CORN MATURE 63 46 83 64
CORN HARVESTED 15 10 26 16
SOYBEANS DROPPING LEAVES 58 33 74 68
SOYBEANS HARVESTED 5 NA 15 11
RICE HARVESTED 57 47 73 60
WINTER WHEAT PLANTED 26 14 32 35
WINTER WHEAT EMERGED 6 NA 10 10
SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED 96 93 89 95
SORGHUM HEADED 96 94 100 100
SORGHUM COLORING 79 71 95 89
SORGHUM MATURE 44 37 60 52
SORGHUM HARVESTED 26 24 30 32
PEANUTS HARVESTED 9 9 4 15
SUGARBEETS HARVESTED 60 57 47 73
BARLEY HARVESTED 95 97 94 88

DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Sep 26
For the week ending Sep 22, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain ——-week ending——- current previous
Sep 22 Sep 15 last mkt yr mkt yr
year to date to date
Wheat 588.0 927.4 681.6 10,121.8 9,658.4
Rye 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oats 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.5
Barley 0.1 0.0 11.1 116.5 47.3
Flaxseed 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
Corn 870.8 619.5 938.8 2,082.6 3,379.2
Sorghum 35.7 36.7 72.9 158.8 229.7
Soybeans 201.9 301.7 524.6 882.3 1,162.9
Sunflower 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total 1,696.5 1,885.4 2,229.0 13,364.4 14,478.9
Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday as traders reacted to continued poor weather in the US Great Plains. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business helped the bears. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Charts show that Wheat trends could turn up for at least the short term this week. Minneapolis charts are trying to turn up now.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, and turn very warm this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal this week and much above normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 632, 624, and 615 December, with resistance at 656, 662, and 667 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 737, 720, and 715 December, with resistance at 755, 766, and 770 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 893, 933, and 1020 December. Support is at 840, 820, and 815 December, and resistance is at 880, 890, and 896 December.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were lower again yesterday on speculative selling tied to weak demand ideas. Iraq bought from India to highlight increased export competition, and Philippines said it will buy less next year due to good production this year. There is still plenty of Rice in Asia for them to buy. The weather was cool last week enough to hurt Rice progress and yield potential, at least in Arkansas and Missouri, and the damage showed up in the weekly USDA reports. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak. Futures remain above cash prices, but cash prices are starting to move a little higher as the harvest progresses and futures have fallen sharply.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas late this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal. Thailand’s government has cancelled a sale of 300,000 tons of Rice to Indonesia as the price no longer confirms to the new internal price policy.

Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1590, 1567, and 1540 November, and resistance is at 1620, 1630, and 1640 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and on ideas that demand could increase with the move to lower price levels. Expectations of harvest progress helped keep prices down. Some showers and cool temperatures were seen overnight in areas east of the Mississippi and the precipitation could slow harvest progress. Drier conditions were seen in western areas, and harvest should have be more active. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. These crops appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but demand overall does not appear that strong. Basis levels are steady in the country.

Overnight News: Basis was firm at the Gulf of Mexico.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 618 December. Support is at 630, 612, and 606 December, and resistance is at 663, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 327, 326, and 324 September, and resistance is at 333, 334, and 337 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed yesterday on ideas of higher than expected yields and fears of poor demand. Ideas of weak demand and on the European and Greek economic issues continued to hurt price action. It was a wet and cool night in areas east of the Mississippi River and little harvest progress was made. Ares to the west ere warmer and dry, and some good progress was possible. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed, but in general are said to be better than expected. Harvest should begin to expand this week. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are steady. Charts show that trends are mostly down for the short term.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1250, 1238, and 1226 November, and resistance is at 1267, 1282, and 1318 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 321.00, 319.00, and 309.00 October, and resistance is at 330.00, 334.00, and 337.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 5170, 5130, and 5090 October, with resistance at 5380, 5415, and 5475 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago and despite increased selling from producers and elevators. Exporters and processors were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 524.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 544.00, 546.00, and 551.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2860, 2830, and 2800 December, with resistance at 2940, 2950, and 3000 December.

Midwest Weather: Chances for showers through Wednesday, then mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal. Warm and dry west of the Mississippi all week.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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