DJ SURVEY: US Wheat Output
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for 2011 U.S. wheat production as compiled by Dow Jones. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat production figures at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
USDA USDA
2011 2010
Average Range August Output
All Wheat (12) 2.046 2.007-2.084 2.077 2.208
All Winter Wheat (12) 1.495 1.478-1.515 1.497 1.485
Hard Red Winter (12) 0.791 0.779-0.800 0.794 1.018
Soft Red Winter (12) 0.453 0.449-0.460 0.452 0.238
White Winter (10) 0.251 0.242-0.260 0.251 0.229
Other Spring (11) 0.498 0.480-0.531 0.522 0.616
Durum (11) 0.053 0.047-0.057 0.057 0.107
All All White Other
Wheat Winter HRW SRW Winter Spring Durum
ABN Amro 2.081 1.515 0.800 0.455 0.260 0.510 0.055
ADM Investor Srvcs 2.048 1.490 0.790 0.450 0.250 0.505 0.053
Allendale 2.007 1.486 0.785 0.459 0.242 0.469 0.052
Citigroup 2.052 1.497 0.794 0.452 n/a 0.501 0.054
Farm Futures 2.063 1.504 0.799 0.454 0.251 0.509 0.050
Informa* 2.044 1.493 0.782 0.460 n/a n/a n/a
Jefferies Bache 2.038 1.497 0.795 0.451 0.251 0.487 0.054
Kropf & Love 2.043 1.497 0.794 0.452 0.251 0.490 0.055
Macquarie Bank 2.084 1.497 0.793 0.451 0.252 0.531 0.056
Newedge 2.022 1.478 0.779 0.449 0.250 0.493 0.051
North Am Risk Mgmt 2.024 1.497 0.792 0.455 0.250 0.480 0.047
RJ O’Brien 2.045 1.490 0.786 0.451 0.253 0.498 0.057
*From traders
DJ SURVEY: Forecasts For US Sept 1 Grain Stocks Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of bushels for U.S. grain and soybean stocks as of September 1, 2011, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of estimates in that average and range.
2011 Jun. 1 2010 Sep. 1
USDA USDA
Average Range Stocks Stocks
Corn (16) 0.962 0.820-1.050 3.670 1.708
Soybeans (16) 0.225 0.202-0.240 0.619 0.151
Wheat (14) 2.046 1.959-2.247 0.861 2.450
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 1.045 0.240 2.247
ADM Investor Services 1.050 0.225 2.035
Agrivisor 1.020 0.202 2.125
Allendale 0.933 0.222 1.959
Citigroup 0.950 0.236 2.034
Doane Advisory Services 0.930 0.235 n/a
Farm Futures 0.835 0.223 1.970
Jefferies/Bache 0.976 0.232 2.143
Kropf/Love Consulting 0.820 0.210 1.964
Linn Group 0.965 0.215 1.996
Macquarie Bank 1.015 0.236 1.977
Newedge USA 1.007 0.231 2.068
North America Risk Mang. 0.990 0.225 1.995
Prime Ag 1.000 0.230 2.100
RJ O’Brien 0.946 0.235 2.029
U.S. Commodities 0.913 0.207 n/a
DJ SURVEY: USDA Quarterly Hogs And Pigs Report
KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)–The following estimates, as compiled by Dow Jones Newswires, are in percentages of the year-earlier figures. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s quarterly hogs and pigs report is scheduled for release at 3:00 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT) Wednesday. Parentheses after a category denote the number of estimates in that range.
Average Range
All hogs and pigs on Sep 1 (7) 100.5 99.8-101.2
Kept for breeding (7) 100.1 99.6-100.5
Kept for marketing (7) 100.5 99.8-101.3
Jun-Aug pig crop (7) 99.8 99.0-101.2
Jun-Aug pigs per litter (6) 101.9 101.0-102.7
Jun-Aug farrowings (6) 97.9 97.3- 98.5
Sep-Nov farrowing intentions (6) 99.1 98.5-100.1
Dec-Feb farrowing intentions (6) 99.5 98.5-100.7
Hogs weighing under 50 lbs (6) 100.1 99.0-101.2
Hogs weighing 50 to 119 lbs (6) 100.2 99.0-101.2
Hogs weighing 120-179 lbs (6) 100.5 99.4-101.5
Hogs weighing 180 and over (6) 102.0 101.0-103.0
The following is a breakdown of the first three categories:
All hogs Kept for Kept for
and pigs breeding marketing
Allendale, Inc. 100.0 99.6 100.0
Bob Brown 100.5 100.1 100.5
Drake Trading Group 100.8 99.9 100.9
Frontier Risk Management 99.8 100.5 99.8
LMIC 101.1 100.1 101.2
University Of Missouri 101.2 100.3 101.3
Vaught Futures Insights 100.0 100.0 100.0
WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed higher again yesterday as traders reacted to continued poor weather in the US Great Plains. Some buying was seen in response to better feelings about the european debt crisis. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business help the bears keep prices lower. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Charts show that Wheat trends could turn up for at least the short term this week. Minneapolis charts are trying to turn up now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, and turn very warm this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal this week and much above normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 655, 650, and 632 December, with resistance at 662, 667, and 670 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 737, 720, and 715 December, with resistance at 760, 766, and 770 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 893, 933, and 1020 December. Support is at 840, 820, and 815 December, and resistance is at 890, 896, and 911 December.
RICE
General Comments: Prices were higher yesterday on speculative buying tied to strength in outside markets and on a big typhoon that hit Philippines yesterday. The typhoon was a big one and moved through Luzon Island and most likely damaged Rice Philippines had talked about sharp reduction in imports due to strong domestic production potential and no big storms, but this talk might need to be modified now. The weather in the US was cool last week enough to hurt Rice progress and yield potential, at least in Arkansas and Missouri, and the damage showed up in the weekly USDA reports. Weather is better this week, but might turn cool again this weekend. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak. Futures and cash prices are now better aligned as cash has moved a little higher until this week and futures have moved lower.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas late this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1604, 1590, and 1567 November, and resistance is at 1652, 1676, and 1680 November.
DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Sep 28
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG) and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates.
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 23.06 15.09 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 22.75 15.44 0.00
Brokens 16.32 —- —-
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher yesterday in recovery trading and on ideas that demand could increase with the move to lower price levels. Some buying was also seen as Europe began to take steps to resolve its debt crisis. Expectations of harvest progress helped keep prices down. Some showers and cool temperatures were seen overnight in areas east of the Mississippi and the precipitation could slow harvest progress. Drier conditions were seen in western areas, and harvest should have be more active. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. These crops appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but demand overall does not appear that strong. Basis levels are steady in the country. Price action was disappointing for the bulls as futures gave back much of the early gains.
Overnight News: Basis was firm at the Gulf of Mexico. South Kore bought 124,000 tons of US Corn overnight and at least 661,000 tons in the last week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 653, 630, and 612 December, and resistance is at 663, 666, and 669 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 329, 327, and 326 September, and resistance is at 338, 340, and 342 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were high yesterday on strength seen in most other markets as the world felt better about steps being taken in Europe to help resolve the potential debt crisis there. Ideas of higher than expected yields and fears of poor demand created more selling interest later in the session, and the markets closed on a weak note. It was another wet and cool night in areas east of the Mississippi River and little harvest progress was made. Weather should turn drier after today. Areas to the west are warmer and dry, and some good progress is possible. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed, but in general are said to be better than expected. Harvest should begin to expand this week. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are steady. Price action yesterday was disappointing for the bulls.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1250, 1238, and 1226 November, and resistance is at 1282, 1318, and 1326 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 322.00, 321.00, and 319.00 October, and resistance is at 330.00, 334.00, and 337.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5225, 5170, and 5130 October, with resistance at 5380, 5415, and 5475 October.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher once again along with Chicago and despite moderate selling from producers and elevators. Speculators were seen on both sides of the market, and commercial activity was less than had been seen recently. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 532.00, 530.00, and 524.00 November, with resistance at 544.00, 546.00, and 551.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2860, 2830, and 2800 December, with resistance at 2950, 3000, and 3015 December.
Midwest Weather: Chances for showers today, then mostly dry in the east. Temperatures will average below normal. Warm and dry west of the Mississippi.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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