DJ SURVEY: US Wheat Output
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for 2011 U.S. wheat production as compiled by Dow Jones. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat production
figures at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
USDA USDA
2011 2010
Average Range August Output
All Wheat (12) 2.046 2.007-2.084 2.077 2.208
All Winter Wheat (12) 1.495 1.478-1.515 1.497 1.485
Hard Red Winter (12) 0.791 0.779-0.800 0.794 1.018
Soft Red Winter (12) 0.453 0.449-0.460 0.452 0.238
White Winter (10) 0.251 0.242-0.260 0.251 0.229
Other Spring (11) 0.498 0.480-0.531 0.522 0.616
Durum (11) 0.053 0.047-0.057 0.057 0.107
All All White Other
Wheat Winter HRW SRW Winter Spring Durum
ABN Amro 2.081 1.515 0.800 0.455 0.260 0.510 0.055
ADM Investor Srvcs 2.048 1.490 0.790 0.450 0.250 0.505 0.053
Allendale 2.007 1.486 0.785 0.459 0.242 0.469 0.052
Citigroup 2.052 1.497 0.794 0.452 n/a 0.501 0.054
Farm Futures 2.063 1.504 0.799 0.454 0.251 0.509 0.050
Informa* 2.044 1.493 0.782 0.460 n/a n/a n/a
Jefferies Bache 2.038 1.497 0.795 0.451 0.251 0.487 0.054
Kropf & Love 2.043 1.497 0.794 0.452 0.251 0.490 0.055
Macquarie Bank 2.084 1.497 0.793 0.451 0.252 0.531 0.056
Newedge 2.022 1.478 0.779 0.449 0.250 0.493 0.051
North Am Risk Mgmt 2.024 1.497 0.792 0.455 0.250 0.480 0.047
RJ O’Brien 2.045 1.490 0.786 0.451 0.253 0.498 0.057
*From traders

DJ SURVEY: Forecasts For US Sept 1 Grain Stocks Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for U.S. grain and soybean stocks as of September 1, 2011, as compiled
by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to
release its report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
2011 Jun. 1 2010 Sep. 1
USDA USDA
Average Range Stocks Stocks
Corn (16) 0.962 0.820-1.050 3.670 1.708
Soybeans (16) 0.225 0.202-0.240 0.619 0.151
Wheat (14) 2.046 1.959-2.247 0.861 2.450
Corn Soybeans Wheat
ABN Amro 1.045 0.240 2.247
ADM Investor Services 1.050 0.225 2.035
Agrivisor 1.020 0.202 2.125
Allendale 0.933 0.222 1.959
Citigroup 0.950 0.236 2.034
Doane Advisory Services 0.930 0.235 n/a
Farm Futures 0.835 0.223 1.970
Jefferies/Bache 0.976 0.232 2.143
Kropf/Love Consulting 0.820 0.210 1.964
Linn Group 0.965 0.215 1.996
Macquarie Bank 1.015 0.236 1.977
Newedge USA 1.007 0.231 2.068
North America Risk Mang. 0.990 0.225 1.995
Prime Ag 1.000 0.230 2.100
RJ O’Brien 0.946 0.235 2.029
U.S. Commodities 0.913 0.207 n/a

09/28 14:00 CDT U.S. Quarterly hog/pig report highlights–USDA
Sept 28 (Reuters) – The following are highlights of U.S. Agriculture
Department’s quarterly hog and pig inventory report, with current period as a
percent of the year-ago period:
U.S. HOG/PIG INVENTORY
(1,000 head)
Pct 2011 2010
Sept 1 Sept 1
All Hogs/Pigs 101 66,599 65,971
For Breeding 101 5,806 5,770
For Market 101 60,793 60,201
– Under 50 lbs 100 19,696 19,613
– 50-119 lbs 100 17,459 17,395
– 120-179 lbs 101 12,762 12,674
– 180 lbs/Over 103 10,876 10,520
INTENDED/ACTUAL FARROWINGS——————
Pct 2012 2011 2010
Dec-Feb* 100 2,857 2,844 2,872
March-May 98 N/A 2,877 2,929
Dec-May 99 N/A 5,721 5,801
June-Aug 99 N/A 2,901 2,944
Sept-Nov 100 N/A 2,874 2,881
June-Nov 99 N/A 5,775 5,824
*2012 as a percent of 2011
PIG CROP——————————
Pct 2011 2010
Dec-Feb 101 27,869 27,597
March-May 100 28,851 28,730
Dec-May 101 56,719 56,327
June-Aug 101 29,084 28,871
2010 2009
Sept-Nov 28,489 28,260
June-Nov 57,359 56,978
PIGS PER LITTER———————–
Pct 2011 2010
Dec-Feb 102 9.80 9.61
March-May 102 10.03 9.81
Dec-May 102 9.91 9.71
June-Aug 102 10.03 9.81
2010 2009
Sept-Nov 9.89 9.70
June-Nov 9.85 9.70

NOTES:
N/A – Not available
Some year-ago figures may be revised.
FORECASTS:
Livestock analysts had expected the USDA report to show an average of about
100.5 percent for all hogs in inventory on Sept. 1, an average of 100.1 percent
kept for breeding, and an average of 100.5 percent for marketing, according to
a Reuters survey.

U.S. EXPORT SALES FOR WEEK ENDING 09/22/2011
CURRENT MARKETING YEAR NEXT MARKETING YEAR
COMMODITY NET SALES OUTSTANDING SALES WEEKLY EXPORTS ACCUMULATED EXPORTS NET SALES OUTSTANDING SALES
CURRENT YEAR YEAR
AGO CURRENT YEAR YEAR
AGO
THOUSAND METRIC TONS
WHEAT
HRW 123.4 1,502.5 3,734.0 192.8 4,087.9 4,407.6 0.0 0.0
SRW 129.1 673.8 609.1 70.1 1,326.0 588.9 0.0 59.1
HRS 148.5 1,366.5 2,118.5 172.8 2,391.9 2,330.8 0.0 4.5
WHITE –5.8 987.6 1,216.0 75.1 1,595.3 1,519.4 0.0 0.0
DURUM 33.8 84.1 238.0 10.8 221.0 331.1 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 428.9 4,614.5 7,915.6 521.6 9,622.1 9,177.7 0.0 63.6
BARLEY 0.0 0.4 56.5 0.3 80.9 37.1 0.0 0.0
CORN 787.9 13,748.4 14,141.6 823.1 2,071.4 3,318.6 25.0 657.5
SORGHUM 22.7 275.4 739.9 0.5 113.2 154.8 0.0 0.0
SOYBEANS 1,033.5 15,212.6 20,155.4 321.9 903.0 1,121.1 0.0 0.0
SOY MEAL –8.7 420.0 540.0 68.9 7,385.3 9,178.2 125.2 1,354.8
SOY OIL –7.2 35.2 117.8 14.1 1,318.9 1,403.0 4.5 38.7
RICE
L G RGH 14.6 133.9 194.2 8.6 191.5 240.3 0.0 0.0
M S RGH 0.0 32.7 110.9 0.0 1.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
L G BRN 0.1 14.8 31.3 0.2 4.6 6.7 0.0 0.0
M&S BR 0.2 29.5 27.3 1.0 23.8 1.5 0.0 0.3
L G MLD 7.8 113.0 324.2 4.2 124.0 157.6 0.0 0.0
M S MLD 10.1 62.9 71.5 9.5 65.4 50.7 0.0 0.0
TOTAL 32.9 386.9 759.4 23.6 411.0 457.6 0.0 0.3
COTTON THOUSAND RUNNING BALES
UPLAND 222.6 5,757.6 7,283.0 79.6 775.7 1,424.1 0.0 179.5
PIMA 0.1 360.5 221.1 3.0 10.2 6.5 0.0 0.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be find selling. Traders monitored the continued poor weather in the US Great Plains, but the world economic scene proved more important. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business keep some buyers away from futures here. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The current Corn prices imply that these trends will continue. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed. Minneapolis charts are trying to turn up now.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, and turn very warm this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal this week and much above normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 632, 624, and 615 December, with resistance at 650, 655, and 662 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 720, 715, and 698 December, with resistance at 737, 755, and 760 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 840, 820, and 815 December, and resistance is at 880, 890, and 896 December.

RICE
General Comments: Prices were lower yesterday on speculative selling tied to weakness in outside markets and on doubts about the European economy. A big typhoon hit Philippines yesterday. The typhoon was a big one and moved through Luzon Island and most likely damaged Rice. A complete assessment will not be known for at least a few days. Another one could hit the country in a few days. Philippines had talked about sharp reduction in imports due to strong domestic production potential and no big storms, but this talk might need to be modified now. The weather in the US was cool last week enough to hurt Rice progress and yield potential, at least in Arkansas and Missouri, and the damage showed up in the weekly USDA reports. Weather is better this week, but might turn cool again this weekend. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak. Asian prices re reported to be higher as Thailand gets its new domestic price support program started and on floods in Vietnam and Philippines.
Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas late this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1620, 1604, and 1590 November, and resistance is at 1652, 1676, and 1680 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be find selling tied to world economic concerns. Ideas that demand could increase with the move to lower price levels were not important. Some buying was also seen as Europe began to take steps to resolve its debt crisis. Expectations of harvest progress helped keep prices down. Some showers and cool temperatures were seen overnight in areas east of the Mississippi and the precipitation could slow harvest progress. Drier conditions were seen in western areas, and harvest should have be more active. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. These crops appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Basis levels are steady in the country. Price action was disappointing for the bulls as futures gave back much of the early gains.
Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 630, 612, and 593 December, and resistance is at 646, 663, and 666 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 326, 324, and 321 September, and resistance is at 337, 338, and 340 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower yesterday on weakness seen in most other markets as the world got worried again about steps being taken in Europe to help resolve the potential debt crisis there. Ideas of higher than expected yields and fears of poor demand created more selling interest, and the markets closed on a weak note. It was another wet and cool night in areas east of the Mississippi River and little harvest progress was made. Weather should turn drier after today. Areas to the west are warmer and dry, and some good progress is possible. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed, but in general are said to be better than expected. Harvest should begin to expand this week. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are steady. Price action yesterday was disappointing for the bulls..
Overnight News: Basis levels are higher at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady to higher. Mexico bought 105,000 tons of US Soybeans overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1206, 1181, and 1167 November, and resistance is at 1238, 1250, and 1267 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 302.00 October, and resistance is at 319.00, 321.00, and 322.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5130, 5090, and 4980 October, with resistance at 5225, 5380, and 5415 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with Chicago and moderate selling from producers and elevators. Speculators were the best sellers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 524.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 530.00, 532.00, and 544.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2860, 2830, and 2800 December, with resistance at 2950, 3000, and 3015 December.

Midwest Weather: Chances for showers today, then mostly dry in the east. Temperatures will average below normal. Warm and dry west of the Mississippi.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322