The reports are called bearish for Corn, and it is expected that Wheat and Soybeans will follow Corn lower. Calls have been about 20 lower across the Board at the opening today.

09/30 07:29 CDT US Sept 1 quarterly grain stocks highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the
following estimates of U.S. grain stocks (in thousand bu):

USDA USDA USDA Trade
On Farm Off Farm Total Estimates*
SOYBEANS
Sept 1, 2011 48,500 166,163 214,663 225,000
Sept 1, 2010 35,400 115,485 150,885
CORN
Sept 1, 2011 314,950 813,295 1,128,245 964,000
Sept 1, 2010 485,100 1,222,687 1,707,787
ALL WHEAT
Sept 1, 2011 641,500 1,508,573 2,150,073 2,035,000
Sept 1, 2010 812,100 1,637,517 2,449,617
* Trade estimates based on Reuters survey of U.S. grain market analysts.
NOTES:
SEPT 1 STOCKS VS YR AGO-CORN DOWN 34 PCT, SOYBEANS UP 42 PCT, WHEAT DOWN 12
PCT

09/30 07:29 CDT U.S. annual small grains summary report – USDA
WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the
following 2011 and 2010 data in its annual U.S. Small Grains Summary report:

PRODUCTION
(1,000 bushels)
———— 2011 ————
New August Analysts’ 2010
est est est actual
All Wheat 2,008,039 2,077,000 2,044,000 2,206,916
Durum 51,889 57,000 54,000 106,080
Other Spring 462,473 522,000 493,000 615,975
Winter 1,493,677 1,497,000 1,496,000 1,484,861
Hard Red 780,089 794,000 791,000 1,018,337
Soft Red 457,535 452,000 454,000 237,429
White 256,053 251,000 251,000 229,095
Barley 155,050 168,000 N/A 180,268
Oats 54,005 57,000 N/A 81,190

YIELD
(bushels/acre)
2011 2010
est actual
All Wheat 43.9 46.3
Durum 39.3 42.1
Other Spring 38.3 46.1
Winter 46.2 46.8
Barley 69.2 73.1
Oats 57.5 64.3
ACRES FOR HARVEST
(1,000 acres)
2011 2010
est actual
All Wheat 45,715 47,619
Durum 1,322 2,519
Other Spring 12,079 13,359
Winter 32,314 31,741
Barley 2,239 2,465
Oats 940 1,263

DJ SURVEY: US Wheat Output
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for 2011 U.S. wheat production as compiled by Dow Jones. The U.S.
Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat production
figures at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
USDA USDA
2011 2010
Average Range August Output
All Wheat (12) 2.046 2.007-2.084 2.077 2.208
All Winter Wheat (12) 1.495 1.478-1.515 1.497 1.485
Hard Red Winter (12) 0.791 0.779-0.800 0.794 1.018
Soft Red Winter (12) 0.453 0.449-0.460 0.452 0.238
White Winter (10) 0.251 0.242-0.260 0.251 0.229
Other Spring (11) 0.498 0.480-0.531 0.522 0.616
Durum (11) 0.053 0.047-0.057 0.057 0.107

DJ SURVEY: Forecasts For US Sept 1 Grain Stocks Report
CHICAGO (Dow Jones)–The following are analysts’ estimates in billions of
bushels for U.S. grain and soybean stocks as of September 1, 2011, as compiled
by Dow Jones Newswires. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to
release its report at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT) Friday. Parentheses denote the
number of estimates in that average and range.
2011 Jun. 1 2010 Sep. 1
USDA USDA
Average Range Stocks Stocks
Corn (16) 0.962 0.820-1.050 3.670 1.708
Soybeans (16) 0.225 0.202-0.240 0.619 0.151
Wheat (14) 2.046 1.959-2.247 0.861 2.450

WHEAT

General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday, with Minneapolis December leading the way on ideas that high protein Wheat was going to be hard to find. Traders monitored the continued poor weather in the US Great Plains, but the world economic scene proved just as important and the news supported commodities in general yesterday. Fears that Russia was taking all the export business keep some buyers away from futures here. Ideas of tight supplies here of high quality Wheat and ideas that the hard Red Winter Wheat crop will struggle to get planted in a timely way as it still has not rained all that much in areas of the central and southern Great Plains. Warm and dry weather is featured there again this week. Yields and quality in Spring Wheat areas was hurt earlier in the season due to excessive rains in the north, but harvest conditions now are good. Yield reports have been disappointing and have been supporting futures. Wheat is still finding its way into feed rations as many buyers do not want to pay the high prices for Corn. The spread is correcting, but Wheat is still cheap to Corn. Charts show that Wheat trends are mixed. Minneapolis charts are up.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains. Northern areas could see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. It should be very warm this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should get mostly dry conditions, and turn very warm this weekend. Temperatures will average near normal to above normal this week and much above normal this weekend. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 632, 624, and 615 December, with resistance at 662, 667, and 670 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 720, 715, and 698 December, with resistance at 755, 760, and 766 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 933 and 1020 December. Support is at 890, 880, and 871 December, and resistance is at 904, 911, and 934 December.

RICE

General Comments: Prices were lower again yesterday on speculative selling. A big typhoon hit Philippines this week and most likely damaged Rice. A complete assessment will not be known for at least a few days. Another one could hit the country in a few days. Philippines had talked about sharp reduction in imports due to strong domestic production potential and no big storms, but this talk might need to be modified now. Vietnam has also had flooding rains that could hurt crops there, and prices are near three year highs. US weather will feature dry conditions in the Delta that should promote good harvest progress. Rains were reported near Houston yesterday. The harvest continues to move north, although slowly. Initial yield reports are mixed in Arkansas, but overall the reports are not showing any big disasters. Milling yields have not been good as harvest progresses. US cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas. Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear weak.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas late this weekend, but mostly dry. Temperatures will average below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1604, 1590, and 1567 November, and resistance is at 1620, 1630, and 1640 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments: Corn and Oats closed a little higher yesterday on positive world economic developments, but had trouble keeping up with Wheat and Soybeans as yield reports continue to be higher than expected from the early harvest and as the export sales report was not all that strong, although it was stronger than in past weeks. Expectations of much improved harvest weather in all parts of the Corn Belt for next week also hurt Corn prices. Some harvest has been reported in parts of Iowa and Illinois, and yield reports have been very good in almost all areas so far. Yields to the east of Illinois do not seem as strong. The crops harvested now appear to have been planted and more fully developed by the time the bad weather hit. Ideas are that yields can decline as harvest progresses, but for now the market is hearing stronger than expected yield reports. The cash market is steady, and cash market buyers have been easier to find with current prices, but sellers are not interested in selling very much. Basis levels are steady in the country. Price action was disappointing for the bulls once again as futures gave back much of the early gains.

Overnight News: Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 618 December. Support is at 623, 612, and 593 December, and resistance is at 646, 663, and 666 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 322 December. Support is at 326, 324, and 321 September, and resistance is at 334, 337, and 338 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher yesterday on positive economic news from the US and Europe and a strong weekly export sales report. Ideas of higher than expected yields and fears of poor demand created more selling interest, and the markets closed on a weak note. It was another wet and cool night in areas east of the Mississippi River and little harvest progress was made. Weather should turn drier into next week, and good progress should expand. Areas to the west are warmer and dry, and some good progress is possible. Initial yield reports have been highly mixed, but in general are said to be better than expected. Harvest should begin to expand this week. US processor demand is not good for now, and export demand appears soft. Basis levels are firm in the country. Price action yesterday was disappointing for the bulls.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives. Support is at 1210, 1206, and 1181 November, and resistance is at 1238, 1250, and 1267 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives. Support is at 317.00, 315.00, and 312.00 December, and resistance is at 324.00, 329.00, and 337.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 5100, 5000, and 4935 December, with resistance at 5245, 5310, and 5330 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago. Moderate selling from producers and elevators was noted. The US approved Canola Oil use for bio fuels, and now blenders can get tax credits for its use. This helped support futures today. Speculators were the best buyers. Reports of warm and dry weather supported ideas of big harvest progress. Some selling was seen as export demand seems slow. Cash movement by farmers was reported moderate last week as the farmers are with the new crop harvest. Most crops appear to be in good condition as harvest progresses, and yields are reported to be very good. Harvest is ahead of normal. Palm Oil was lower today on outside markets.
Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 523.00, 511.00, and 505.00 November, with resistance at 544.00, 546.00, and 551.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2850, 2830, and 2800 December, with resistance at 2900, 2950, and 3000 December.

Midwest Weather: Mostly dry in all areas. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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