COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher again early yesterday, but closed lower on some speculative selling to finish the week. Volumes trade were very light s few were willing to do much new going into the weekend and the reports next week. There is a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures. No one seems all that worried about production here or around the world. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft on the export side. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except showers and rains along the southeast coast. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry, but showers are likely this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 98.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.017 million bales, from 0.017 million yesterday. ICE said that 8 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 218 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 103.00, 105.00, and 107.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 258,286
: Positions
: 61,443 111,714 43,104 19,054 19,575 34,005 11,294 20,206 9,071 3,033 59,046
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 5,015 2,833 -992 -777 -802 2,702 959 442 -1,291 167 507
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.8 43.3 16.7 7.4 7.6 13.2 4.4 7.8 3.5 1.2 22.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 244
: 38 47 21 16 26 59 21 30 41 33 53
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower on Friday on light volume speculative selling tied to ideas of long liquidation. Florida weather remains a negative for prices. The weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see showers, and there are no tropical systems in sight. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends began to turn up on the charts last week, but then stalled. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Rain should develop again this week in Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers and storms early this week and drier conditions later this week. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 157.00, 162.00, and 176.00 November. Support is at 152.00, 149.00, and 145.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 164.00, and 165.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 33,841
: Positions
: 11,542 22,777 3,563 410 6 8,001 1,471 708 664 263 6,596
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 1,479 227 -204 0 -3 -695 66 142 10 105 309
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 34.1 67.3 10.5 1.2 0.0 23.6 4.3 2.1 2.0 0.8 19.5
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 86
: 22 22 9 . . 18 9 . 14 8 16
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were sharply lower Friday on speculative short covering selling tied to chart patterns as much of anything. There was no real roaster interest to absorb the sales late in the session. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important, with no one really selling that much. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around, which range as high as 60 million bags. Rains are a little late in getting started, but rains are arriving now. Some rains are forecast for this week in Brazil after showers were seen last week. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials, although some end of the season old crop lots are showing up now. Good weather is reported in Mexico and Central America. Chart trends are trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 1.428 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 190.28 ct/lb. Brazil should see showers this week. Temperatures will average near normal. Brazil exported 2.56 million bags of Coffee in September, down 14% from last year. Total 2011 exports are now 21.82 million bags, up 6% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 220.00, 218.00, and 204.00 December. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 214.00 December, and resistance is at 237.00, 240.50, and 252.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860 November, and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 342.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 335.00, and 342.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
COFFEE C –“ ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 195,733
: Positions
: 54,140 77,088 29,230 8,281 9,572 18,453 11,524 25,286 1,082 5,362 52,778
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: -379 -1,293 -1,028 -2,317 1,090 -2,298 -1,199 6,906 98 716 2,406
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 27.7 39.4 14.9 4.2 4.9 9.4 5.9 12.9 0.6 2.7 27.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 328
: 92 92 22 12 18 53 47 50 39 44 67
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher Friday on early speculative buying that found commercial and speculative selling. The close was not strong again, and Sugar continues to struggle to prove a bottom. Demand is still reported from Middle East and Asia. India could produce less than expectations and that the export program will not be strong. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Europe is said to have very good crops this year, and Russia could export for the first time in 12 years. Chart trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil through today but it will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal. India said it would likely allow another 1.0 million tons in Sugar exports in two tranches by the end of the month. Bangladesh bought 27,500 tons of Indian Sugar.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2440, 2400, and 2350 March, and resistance is at 2565, 2640, and 2720 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 639.00, 625.00, and 620.00 December, and resistance is at 654.00, 665.00, and 675.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 655,530
: Positions
: 126,595 271,311 129,365 83,881 48,121 104,387 20,925 36,425 24,448 5,652 123,184
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 10,041 -6,974 -6,965 -120 -2,386 -5,256 1,704 -3,387 1,995 -422 7,670
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 19.3 41.4 19.7 12.8 7.3 15.9 3.2 5.6 3.7 0.9 18.8
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 222
: 53 61 19 13 26 44 10 27 33 34 57
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London Friday on what appeared to be speculative selling. Talk of over supply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 3.928 million bags. Indonesia expects to produce about 450,000 tons of Cocoa in 2011.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2610, 2590, and 2560 December, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2790 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1750, 1760, and 1800 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 4, 2011
: Reportable Positions
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
COCOA–“ ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 229,941
: Positions
: 108,788 97,412 18,008 11,449 5,855 25,936 40,056 32,959 2,388 3,464 27,591
: Changes from: September 27, 2011
: 5,541 -588 -1,045 745 527 -1,917 -266 7,283 -291 395 4,048
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 47.3 42.4 7.8 5.0 2.5 11.3 17.4 14.3 1.0 1.5 12.0
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 194
: 39 40 15 9 11 27 56 26 19 18 21
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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