COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher again yesterday, and this time held the gains into the close as the US Dollar was much weaker. Volumes trade were very light s few were willing to do much new going into the reports on Wednesday. Traders expect smaller crop production estimates from USDA. There is a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures. No one seems all that worried about production here or around the world. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft on the export side. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except showers and rains along the southeast coast today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 98.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.016 million bales, from 0.017 million yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 221 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 157.00, 162.00, and 176.00 December. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 105.00, 107.00, and 110.00 December.

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report – Oct 10
For Oct 7 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION LONG ACCTS PCT SHORT ACCTS PCT
Total 62,951 1,082 40.9 53,334 1,184 34.6
HEDGING
Total 91,007 270 59.1 100,624 270 65.4
GRAND TOTAL: 153,958 1,352 100.0 153,958 1,454 100.0

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher on buying seen in most commodities markets due to a weaker US Dollar. Florida weather remains a negative for prices. The weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see showers, and there are no tropical systems in sight. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends began to turn up on the charts last week, but then stalled. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Rain should develop again this week in Brazil.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers and storms today and drier conditions the rest of this week and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 157.00, 162.00, and 176.00 November. Support is at 155.00, 152.00, and 149.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 164.00, and 165.00 November.

DJ ICE FCOJ Speculation And Hedging Report – Oct 10
For Oct 7 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION LONG ACCTS PCT SHORT ACCTS PCT
Total 12,200 325 49.9 5,052 234 20.7
HEDGING
Total 12,249 107 50.1 19,397 59 79.3
GRAND TOTAL: 24,449 432 100.0 24,449 293 100.0

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were higher yesterday on early speculative short covering tied to a weaker Dollar, but found new speculative selling to force the market to more moderate gains. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on hurt the price action in futures. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important, with no one really selling that much. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around, which range as high as 60 million bags. Rains were a little late in getting started, but rains are falling now. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials, although some end of the season old crop lots are showing up now. Good weather is reported in Mexico and Central America. Chart trends are trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.416 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 190.03 ct/lb. Brazil should see showers this week. Temperatures will average near normal, but near to below normal starting this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 225.00, 220.00, and 217.00 December, and resistance is at 231.00, 237.00, and 240.50 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1860, and 1840 November, and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 335.00, and 342.00 December.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed higher again Friday on early speculative buying based primarily on US Dollar weakness. Demand is still reported from Middle East and Asia, but there is talk that demand will go away again now that futures are rallying. Egypt postponed a tender after the recent rally made prices too high for them. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. There were some flooding rains in Thailand over the weekend that could have damaged Sugarcane. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Europe is said to have very good crops this year, and Russia could export for the first time in 12 years. Chart trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil through today but it will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal. Ikraine has produced 707,200 tons of Sugar from beets so far this year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2840 March. Support is at 2540, 2480, and 2440 March, and resistance is at 2720, 2730, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 681.00 December. Support is at 659.00, 654.00, and 639.00 December, and resistance is at 685.00, 693.00, and 698.00 December.

COCOA

General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to the lower US Dollar. Talk of over supply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.906 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2620, 2610, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2790 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1750, 1760, and 1800 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

Free-Subscribe to receive Daily Newsletters via Email