COTTON

General Comments: Futures were slightly higher yesterday as traders got ready for the USDA reports. Volumes trade were very light s few were willing to do much new going into the reports on Wednesday. Traders expect smaller crop production estimates from USDA. There is a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures. No one seems all that worried about production here or around the world. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft on the export side. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road. The USDA reports are considered negative for futures today.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions except showers and rains along the southeast coast today and tomorrow. Temperatures will average above normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. The USDA average spot price is now 98.09 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.016 million bales, from 0.017 million yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 221 contracts for the month.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 157.00, 162.00, and 176.00 December. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 105.00, 107.00, and 110.00 December.

10/12 07:30 CDT October 12 U.S. cotton highlights – USDA
October 12 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following
key U.S. crop information on cotton in its monthly world supply-and-demand
report.
The data includes last month’s forecast for comparison.
COTTON
(mln 480 pounds/bales)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Projections
Actual Estimate Sep Oct
Planted (mln acre) 9.15 10.97 14.72 14.72
Harvested (mln acre) 7.53 10.70 9.85 9.85
Yield (lb/acre) 777 812 807 809
Production 12.19 18.10 16.56 16.61
Exports 12.04 14.38 12.00 11.50
Ending stocks 2.95 2.60 3.40 3.90

10/12 07:34a CST DJ USDA Cotton Ginnings For Period Ending Oct 1-Oct 12
Figures are for cotton ginned prior to October 1, for 2008-11 crops. State breakdown is for upland cotton, unless denoted pima. In running bales. (d) denotes withheld to avoid disclosure of individual

gins.
Cotton Ginnings: Running Bales Ginned (Excluding Linters)
As of October 1, Crop Years 2008-20011
by Crop, State, and United States
===========================================================================
Crop Running Bales Ginned
and ==============================================================
State 2008 2009 2010 2011
===========================================================================

All Cotton
Alabama 10,450 1/ 75,000 13,950
Arizona 13,850 18,000 16,050 20,950
Arkansas 37,550 – 348,050 47,800
California – – – –
Florida 1,050 – 6,000 1/
Georgia 37,900 1/ 151,100 55,500
Kansas 2/ (NA) (NA) (NA)
Louisiana 71,050 18,250 205,350 223,650
Mississippi 17,600 1/ 321,550 87,950
Missouri 12,400 – 145,650 6,600

New Mexico – – – –
North Carolin 1,700 1,600 92,800 34,450
Oklahoma – – 1,500 1/
South Carolin 1,950 3,550 16,900 10,900
Tennessee 18,350 – 172,050 36,450
Texas 573,550 191,000 730,400 1,222,800
Virginia – – 2,050 1/

United States 797,400 233,900 2,284,450 1,764,050

American Pima
Arizona – – – 1/
California – – – –
New Mexico – – – –
Texas – – – –

United States – – – 1/
===========================================================================
– Represents zero.
(NA) Not available.
1/ Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual gins.
2/ First running bales ginned estimate will be published in the “Cotton
Ginnings” publication released December 2011.

FCOJ

General Comments: Futures closed higher on buying seen in most commodities markets due to a weaker US Dollar and in preparation for the USDA reports today. Florida weather remains a negative for prices. The weather is good and there is no other news around. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see showers, and there are no tropical systems in sight. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends began to turn up on the charts last week, but then stalled. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Rain should develop again this week in Brazil.

Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for showers and storms today and drier conditions the rest of this week and this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA reports are considered neutral for futures today.

Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 November. Support is at 160.00, 155.00, and 152.00 November, with resistance at 165.00, 170.00, and 171.00 November.

10/12 07:30 CDT October 12 U.S. orange highlights-USDA
October 12 (Reuters) – The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following key U.S. orange crop information in its monthly world supply-and-demand report. The data includes last month’s forecast for comparison.

U.S. ORANGE CROP
(thousand boxes)
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12
USA crop 191,735 203,749 206,209
Florida crop 133,600 140,300 147,000
JUICE YIELD
(gallons per box)
FCOJ yield 1.56 1.59 1.60

COFFEE

General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday on speculative selling. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on hurt the price action in futures. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. The lack of offer in physical markets is still important, with no one really selling that much. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There is some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around, which range as high as 60 million bags. Rains were a little late in getting started, but rains are falling now. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials, although some end of the season old crop lots are showing up now. Good weather is reported in Mexico and Central America. Chart trends are trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little lower today and are about 1.416 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 187.50 ct/lb. Brazil should see showers this week. Temperatures will average near normal, but near to below normal starting this weekend.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 220.00, 217.00, and 214.00 December, and resistance is at 231.00, 237.00, and 240.50 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1790 November. Support is at 1860, 1840, and 1830 November, and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 335.00, and 342.00 December.

SUGAR

General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday on speculative selling. Demand is still reported from Middle East and Asia, but there is talk that demand will go away again now that futures are rallying. Egypt postponed a tender after the recent rally made prices too high for them. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. There were some flooding rains in Thailand over the weekend that could have damaged Sugarcane. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon and will help offset the smaller production in Brazil. Europe is said to have very good crops this year, and Russia could export for the first time in 12 years. Chart trends are mixed.

Overnight News: Showers are expected in Brazil through today but it will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should be near normal. Ikraine has produced 707,200 tons of Sugar from beets so far this year.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2840 March. Support is at 2540, 2480, and 2440 March, and resistance is at 2720, 2730, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 681.00 December. Support is at 659.00, 654.00, and 639.00 December, and resistance is at 685.00, 693.00, and 698.00 December.

10/12 07:31a CST DJ USDA 2011 US Crop Production: Sugarbeets/Cane-Oct 12
Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State and United States, 2010 and Forecasted October 1, 2011 1/
============================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production
====================================================================
State 2011
2010 2011 2010 ==============- 2010 Sep 1 2011
Sep 1 Oct 1
============================================================================
== 1,000 Acres == == Tons == ====- 1,000 Bushels ====-

CA 1/ 25.1 25.0 40.0 43.0 43.0 1,004 1,075 1,075
CO 27.9 28.7 29.5 26.0 26.0 823 746 746
ID 170.0 178.0 31.0 32.2 32.2 5,270 5,732 5,732
MI 147.0 149.0 26.0 24.6 24.6 3,822 3,665 3,665
MN 441.0 462.0 26.6 20.5 20.5 11,731 9,471 9,471
MT 42.5 43.1 29.5 25.1 25.1 1,254 1,082 1,082
NE 47.5 51.0 23.8 24.5 24.5 1,131 1,250 1,250
ND 214.0 231.0 26.5 22.0 22.0 5,671 5,082 5,082
OR 10.3 8.8 36.3 34.3 34.3 374 302 302
WY 30.4 31.0 27.0 25.0 25.0 821 775 775

US 1,155.7 1,207.6 27.6 24.2 24.2 31,901 29,180 29,180
=============================================================================
1/ Relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central
California and
to year of planting for overwintered beets in central and southern
California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
by State and United States, 2010 and Forecasted October 1, 2011
==============================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production
====================================================================
State 2011
2010 2011 2010 ================ 2010 Sep 1 2011
Sep 1 Oct 1
==============================================================================
== 1,000 Acres == == Tons == ====- 1,000 Bushels ====-

FL 392.0 397.0 33.1 35.0 35.0 12,972 13,895 13,895
HI 17.4 17.0 71.6 77.4 77.4 1,245 1,316 1,316
LA 420.0 420.0 27.8 28.0 28.0 11,676 11,760 11,760
TX 48.1 49.0 30.5 33.7 33.7 1,467 1,651 1,651

US 877.5 883.0 31.2 32.4 32.4 27,360 28,622 28,622
==============================================================================
1/ Net tons.

10/12 07:31a CST DJ USDA Supply/Demand: US Sugar-Oct 12
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
=====================================================================
Item 2010/2011 2011/2012
prev Oct 12 prev Oct 12
=====================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 1,498 1,498 1,745 1,418
Production 2/ 7,946 7,824 7,935 7,935
Beet sugar 4,800 4,675 4,575 4,575
Cane sugar 3,146 3,149 3,360 3,360
Florida 1,433 1,433 1,630 1,630
Hawaii 170 170 170 170
Lousiana 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400
Texas 143 146 160 160
Imports 3,786 3,681 2,962 3,151
TRQ 3/ 1,842 1,693 1,384 1,636
Other program 4/ 300 281 350 350
Other 5/ 1,644 1,707 1,228 1,165
Mexico 1,624 1,687 1,218 1,155
Total supply 13,230 13,003 12,642 12,504
Exports 250 250 200 200
Deliveries 11,235 11,335 11,315 11,415
Food 11,000 11,100 11,125 11,225
Other 6/ 235 235 190 190
Miscellaneous 7/ 0 0 0 0
Total use 11,485 11,585 11,515 11,615
Ending stocks 1,745 1,418 1,127 889
Stocks to use ratio 10.4 12.2 9.8 7.7
=====================================================================

COCOA

General Comments: Futures were lower in New York and in London yesterday on speculative selling. Talk of over supply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.

Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.892 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2620, 2610, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2790 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1630 December, with resistance at 1750, 1760, and 1800 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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