COTTON
General Comments: Futures were lower yesterday on European economic fears. Prime Minister Merkel said that it was not likely that any big pronouncements would be made at meetings this weekend. But progress is being made in talks. China has said that it has started to buy Corn and Soybeans to rebuild state reserves, and there are ideas it is doing the same in Cotton. There was talk that other mills in other countries are buying now as well. There has been a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures, but some of this demand might disappear. Chart trends are mixed for the short term. Demand remains soft on the export side. India has had a lot of Cotton to offer, but recent floods make it hard for Pakistan to talk of exports and easy for mills there to talk of new imports from India down the road. So far, though, little actual demand has been reported.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible today and tomorrow in the Southeast. Temperatures will average below normal. Texas will be mostly dry. Temperatures will average mostly near to below normal. The USDA average spot price is now 96.90 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.018 million yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered today and that total deliveries are now 228 contracts for the month.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 95.00, and 94.00 December, with resistance of 103.00, 105.00, and 107.00 December.

10/17 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights – USDA
WASHINGTON, Oct. 17 (Reuters) – Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department’s weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):

Week ended 10/16/11 10/09/11 10/16/10 5-year

COTTON CONDITION
– Excellent 5 5 13 N/A
– Good 25 25 42 N/A
– Fair 29 28 30 N/A
– Poor 19 18 11 N/A
– Very Poor 22 24 4 N/A
COTTON BOLLS OPEN 94 90 94 89
COTTON HARVESTED 34 26 38 29

DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report – Oct 17
For Oct 14 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION LONG ACCTS PCT SHORT ACCTS PCT
Total 63,919 1,116 41.2 55,146 1,193 35.6
HEDGING
Total 91,078 260 58.8 99,851 272 64.4
GRAND TOTAL: 154,997 1,376 100.0 154,997 1,465 100.0

FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower yesterday in consolidation trading. Florida weather remains a negative for prices for now, but some big rains are possible in southern sections of the state later in the week. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see showers and storms as a tropical system brings lots of rain to southern parts of the state starting about Wednesday. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends are up on the charts. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Dry conditions or light showers are seen this week for Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for rains today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 176.00 and 191.00 November. Support is at 171.00, 170.00, and 165.00 November, with resistance at 175.00, 178.00, and 179.00 November.

DJ ICE FCOJ Speculation And Hedging Report – Oct 17
For Oct 14 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION LONG ACCTS PCT SHORT ACCTS PCT
Total 12,495 412 50.0 4,131 163 16.5
HEDGING
Total 12,517 92 50.0 20,881 53 83.5
GRAND TOTAL: 25,012 504 100.0 25,012 216 100.0

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower along with many markets as traders shrugged off news of smaller Colombian crops and concentrated on big production ideas in other parts of the world. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keeps people wondering about upside potential, but trees are just starting to flower in Brazil and Vietnam has seen a lot of rain recently that could hurt cherries. Weather is less than perfect in other places too. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There has been some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some of the huge production estimates floating around, which range as high as 60 million bags. Rains are falling now and flowering is now underway. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials. Good weather is reported in Mexico and parts of Central America, although some parts of Central America are now getting too much rain. Chart trends are trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.400 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 194.07 ct/lb. Brazil should see drier conditions the rest of this week. Temperatures will average near to below normal. GCA stocks are now 4.581 million bags, from 4.737 million last month
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 231.00, 228.00, and 225.00 December, and resistance is at 246.00, 252.00, and 256.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1910, 1885, and 1860 November, and resistance is at 1990, 2020, and 2030 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 342.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 309.00, 306.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 335.00, and 342.00 December.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday on liquidation trading. Sugar has seen new speculative buying as chart trends have turned up again for at least the short term, but this buying seemed to run out as the US Dollar moved higher. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. There were some flooding rains in Thailand last week that could have damaged Sugarcane and other crops. Damage reports might be heard this week, but initial reports are that losses are minor and most of the problems will be due to delayed crushing and deliveries rather than to crop losses. More rain is possible there soon. Pakistan said last week that it could import 400,000 tons of Sugar after recent flooding rains. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon, and Europe is said to have very good crops this year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal. China produced 32,000 tons of Refined Sugar in September, more than triple last year. Calendar year to date production is now 8.18 million tons, up 3.9% from last year. Russia has produced 2.4 million tons of Refined Sugar from imported Raws, up 24% from last year. Ukraine has produced 931,030 tons of Sugar from Beet, up 32.7% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2840 March. Support is at 2730, 2720, and 2630 March, and resistance is at 2840, 2860, and 2950 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 708.00, 704.00, and 698.00 December, and resistance is at 722.00, 724.00, and 730.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures were low in New York and in London yesterday on European economic concerns and a strong US Dollar. Talk of oversupply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now as there has been no real follow through to the downside. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are little changed today and are now about 3.836 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2590, 2560, and 2540 December, with resistance at 2690, 2710, and 2740 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1660, 1630, and 1600 December, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1760 December.

Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322