COTTON
General Comments: Futures were mixed Friday after making new lows for the move. Speculators were said to be the best buyers. There still appears to be some problems with the details of any agreement between France, Germany, and other EU countries on what the support and funding levels will be. But progress is being made in talks and it still looks like there will be announcements made this week. China has said that it has started to buy Corn and Soybeans to rebuild state reserves, and there are ideas it is doing the same in Cotton. There was talk that other mills in other countries are buying now as well. There has been a lot of commercial interest seen in owning Cotton on the commercial side below 100.00 basis futures, but some of this demand might be covered now. Chart trends are mixed for the short term, but the market acts weak. Demand remains soft on the export side.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal much of the week, but near to below normal by Friday. Texas will be mostly dry, but showers are possible Wednesday. Temperatures will average mostly near to above normal early this week and near to below normal late this week. The USDA average spot price is now 94.54 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.020 million bales, from 0.019 million yesterday. China imported 252,726 tons of Cotton in September, up 26% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 1.94 million tons, down 10% from 2010.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 95.00 and 90.00 December. Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 December, with resistance of 99.00, 103.00, and 105.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 256,300
: Positions
: 59,021 105,044 41,998 18,345 21,660 32,008 11,748 21,979 9,849 3,927 58,708
: Changes from: October 11, 2011
: -1,831 -5,648 -38 -684 2,083 -2,131 693 862 900 1,183 390
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 23.0 41.0 16.4 7.2 8.5 12.5 4.6 8.6 3.8 1.5 22.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 245
: 38 46 20 14 24 57 26 32 42 34 56
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FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed higher Friday. Bulls were able to push futures to new highs for the move in early trading, and the rally held through the close in a light volume trade. Florida weather remains a negative for prices for now, but some big rains are possible in southern sections of the state later in the week. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see drier weather. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends are up on the charts. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Dry conditions or light showers are seen this week for Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather, but showers are possible about Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 191.00 November. Support is at 173.00, 170.00, and 167.00 November, with resistance at 178.00, 179.00, and 182.00 November.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 35,781
: Positions
: 11,630 25,431 3,617 422 10 9,041 493 564 397 291 7,414
: Changes from: October 11, 2011
: -204 1,708 13 12 -154 853 -690 103 56 132 417
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 32.5 71.1 10.1 1.2 0.0 25.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.8 20.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 93
: 25 24 9 . . 27 . . 12 10 16
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COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in all markets due to ideas the economic issues in the EU might soon be resolved and weather fears for Central and South America where rain threatens crops again this week. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keeps people wondering about upside potential, but trees are just starting to flower in Brazil and Vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia has seen a lot of rain recently that could hurt cherries. Weather is less than perfect in other places too, especially in Central America and Colombia where big and flooding rains have been reported in the last week. More big rains are possible for parts of Central America this week as a tropical low forms in the eastern seas. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There has been some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some estimates seen recently. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials. Chart trends are trends are mixed, but are trying to turn up.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.324 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 200.69 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to below normal through this weekend, then near to above normal. Latin American Washed Coffee exports were 1.61 million bags in September, up 9% from last year. Todo 2010-11 exports were 26.34 million bags, up 12% from 2009-10.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 247.00, 263.00, and 264.00 December. Support is at 239.00, 237.00, and 228.00 December, and resistance is at 246.00, 252.00, and 256.00 December. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1790 November. Support is at 1830, 1780, and 1750 November, and resistance is at 1890, 1910, and 1950 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed to up with objectives of 342.00 and 408.00 December. Support is at 327.00, 318.00, and 313.00 December, and resistance is at 335.00, 342.00, and 344.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 186,240
: Positions
: 56,049 77,111 28,494 7,481 10,038 18,462 13,033 16,715 1,278 5,756 48,158
: Changes from: October 11, 2011
: 2,327 4,311 -478 -363 2 634 -835 -9,084 61 -714 -5,699
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 30.1 41.4 15.3 4.0 5.4 9.9 7.0 9.0 0.7 3.1 25.9
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 323
: 86 91 22 10 18 54 42 52 43 42 72
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SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower again Friday on follow through selling and a lack of buying interest of any kind above 2800 March. Supply side fundamentals for Sugar remain weak. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. Thailand has a lot for export as well, and Brazil is expected to be a strong producer next year after a disappointing year this year. There were some flooding rains in Thailand last week that could have damaged Sugarcane and other crops. Damage reports might be heard this week, but initial reports are that losses are minor and most of the problems will be due to delayed crushing and deliveries rather than to crop losses. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon, and Europe is said to have very good crops this year. India now says it might decide on more Sugar exports in the beginning of November. Russia said it plans to stop importing Sugar by the end of the eyar due to big crops there.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions or light showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal. India expects a Sugar production surplus of about 3.0 million tons for 2011-12. China imported 468,868 tons of Sugar in September, up 33% from last year. Calendar year to date imports are now 1.67 million tons, up 22% from 2010.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2570 March. Support is at 2630, 2610, and 2540 March, and resistance is at 2740, 2840, and 2860 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 661.00 December. Support is at 698.00, 693.00, and 685.00 December, and resistance is at 722.00, 724.00, and 730.00 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 696,033
: Positions
: 127,565 301,289 127,826 93,267 51,652 125,909 13,954 33,729 24,896 5,358 130,126
: Changes from: October 11, 2011
: 5,196 26,202 -1,079 7,560 2,344 17,997 -8,469 -2,710 -386 408 5,938
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 18.3 43.3 18.4 13.4 7.4 18.1 2.0 4.8 3.6 0.8 18.7
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 230
: 53 63 19 14 25 49 13 28 32 35 57
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COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and lower in London yesterday on currency moves. Talk of oversupply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have made new contract lows and might have already priced in the increased supplies for now as there has been no real follow through to the downside. Trends are mixed for the short term on the charts. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are little changed today and are now about 3.789 million bags. Ivory Coast biweekly export declarations are 37,496 tons, almost triple those of last year. Indonesia has lowered export taxes for Cocoa. The North American third quarter grind was124,621 tons, up 3.42% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2500 and 2350 December. Support is at 2540, 2530, and 2520 December, with resistance at 2590, 2610, and 2620 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1620 and 1480 December. Support is at 1650, 1630, and 1600 December, with resistance at 1690, 1720, and 1750 December.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 18, 2011
: Reportable Positions
:————————————————————————-
: Producer/Merchant : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading
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COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 240,101
: Positions
: 112,082 102,980 16,506 10,276 8,041 25,725 38,837 32,090 3,340 3,610 32,640
: Changes from: October 11, 2011
: 1,185 237 -1,624 -628 1,427 -125 480 1,274 928 453 587
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
: 46.7 42.9 6.9 4.3 3.3 10.7 16.2 13.4 1.4 1.5 13.6
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 201
: 39 42 16 8 13 28 58 24 24 15 22
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Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
