COTTON
General Comments: Futures were sharply higher to limit up yesterday on speculative buying tied to strong weekly export sales and the start of the resolution of the Greek crisis. It was a very positive day and one that suggested that a low might be in place. Traders also noted that Pakistan has cut production estimates to remove some competition in the export arena. The harvest is still moving forward in Texas and weather there remains dry. Chart trends are mixed for the short term.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but showers are possible on Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal much of the week, but near to below normal by Friday. Texas will be mostly dry, but showers are possible tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures will average mostly near to above normal early this week and near to below normal late this week. The USDA average spot price is now 101.84 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.026 million bales, from 0.025 million yesterday. USDA said that its Upland Cotton world market price is now 87.40 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 99.00, 98.00, and 95.00 December, with resistance of 105.00, 107.00, and 110.00 December.
FCOJ
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday as a hurricane faded south of the Yucatan. It is not going anywhere, and is no longer expected to have any impact on Florida. Prices did not fall as much as they might have due to general buying of commodities by speculators and others and US Dollar weakness.. Florida weather remains a negative for prices for now. Florida has had good weather so far this year with showers most days and warm temperatures. This week should see drier weather. Early harvest is getting underway. Trends are up on the charts. Brazil is seeing warm temperatures. Showers are seen this week for Brazil.
Overnight News: Florida weather forecasts call for mostly dry weather today, but showers are possible starting Thursday. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with no objectives. Support is at 189.00, 188.00, and 186.00 November, with resistance at 194.00, 197.00, and 200.00 November.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in all markets on news of debt relief for Greece and extreme weakness in the US Dollar. Loss reports from Central America are coming in from the rains last week, but it is mostly dry there now. The potential for big crops in Vietnam and Brazil later on keeps people wondering about upside potential, but trees are just starting to flower in Brazil and Vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia has seen a lot of rain recently that could hurt cherries. Drier weather is forecast for Brazil this week, and dryness now would hurt flowering and cherry formation. Weather remains less than perfect in other places too, especially in Central America and Colombia. Futures still have to deal with a tight supply situation for the short term, and the possibility of less than expected Arabica Coffee produced over the next year. Differentials in all of Latin America remain strong. There has been some talk there that the Brazil production will not be as big as some estimates seen recently. Central America and Colombia are offering to sell new crop with high differentials.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.272 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 194.93 ct/lb. Brazil should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and near to below normal next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 232.00, 228.00, and 225.00 December, and resistance is at 241.00, 243.00, and 252.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1850, 1780, and 1750 November, and resistance is at 1880, 1910, and 1950 November. Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed. Support is at 318.00, 313.00, and 310.00 December, and resistance is at 327.00, 335.00, and 340.00 December.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher yesterday as the European crisis found some resolution and as the US Dollar moved sharply lower in response. However, the rally failed to change the chart picture very much. Supply side fundamentals for Sugar remain weak. India is still offering and expects to sell more as the country tries to work off surplus production and stocks. There were some flooding rains in Thailand last week that could have damaged Sugarcane and other crops. Reports are that losses are minor and most of the problems will be due to delayed crushing and deliveries rather than to crop losses. Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time. Northern hemisphere crops are coming soon, and Europe is said to have very good crops this year.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions or light showers are expected in Brazil. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2630, 2610, and 2540 March, and resistance is at 2740, 2770, and 2840 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 703.00, 698.00, and 693.00 December, and resistance is at 718.00, 722.00, and 724.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London again yesterday on speculative buying. Trends turned up with the price action so far this week. Talk of oversupply in the market for Cocoa still are keeping prices down overall, but futures have already priced in the increased supplies for now as there has been no real follow through to the downside. There is still no real reason to buy for now, but next year could be different as many analysts say that crop production potential in western Africa has been hurt by some poor weather seen in the last month. However, current supplies are ample and should help cover any short production potential for next year. Weather is called good for production in West Africa now.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near normal. ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.715 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2740, 2890, and 3370 December. Support is at 2720, 2710, and 2690 December, with resistance at 2770, 2790, and 2850 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1690, 1660, and 1650 December, with resistance at 1720, 1750, and 1760 December.
Questions Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322